{"id":10575,"date":"2014-04-11T15:45:59","date_gmt":"2014-04-11T15:45:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=1793"},"modified":"2014-07-01T01:25:31","modified_gmt":"2014-06-30T23:25:31","slug":"1793-dmytro-tymchuk-crimean-scenario-will-not-work-in-eastern-ukraine-putin-missed-the-critical-moment-for-invasion-here-in-march","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/1793-dmytro-tymchuk-crimean-scenario-will-not-work-in-eastern-ukraine-putin-missed-the-critical-moment-for-invasion-here-in-march","title":{"rendered":"Dmytro Tymchuk: Crimean Scenario Will Not Work in Eastern Ukraine \u2013 Putin Missed the Critical Moment for Invasion Here in March"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kyiv, 11 April 2014, \u2013 Dmytro Tymchuk, Director of the Center for Military and Political Research and coordinator of the Information Resistance Group, spoke at the Ukraine Crisis Media Center about the build-up of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border, most probable scenarios for Putin\u2019s next steps and separatist movement in the east of Ukraine as today\u2019s main threat to Ukraine\u2019s integrity. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the latest information available to the Information Resistance Group, approximately 2000 Russian troops have been withdrawn from Crimea over the last 24 hours. Most of them are Russian special forces (Spetsnaz) and airborne forces (VDV). As of the morning of April 11, around 20,000 Russian troops remain in Crimea.<\/p>\n

At the same time, some serious movement has been observed around the Kerch Strait and in Novorossiysk, where approximately 50 oil tankers have gathered. It is widely known that Crimea is running out of fuel. However, according to Dmytro, it is unlikely that the oil is being mobilized in preparation for an attack. \u201cKremlin is not considering Crimea as a foothold for a full-scale assault,\u201d said Mr. Tymchuk.<\/p>\n

Today, the \u201cCrimean scenario\u201d in the east of Ukraine is not possible either, as there is a huge difference between the situation in early March in Crimea and today\u2019s situation in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkiv. \u201cThe Crimean events began in the midst of complete disorganization of the government and demoralization of the law enforcers and the army,\u201d says Dmytro Tymchuk, \u201cThey didn\u2019t support Maidan, as opposed to the west of Ukraine, and didn\u2019t understand how legitimate the new government in Kyiv was. This allowed the element of surprise to be used in Crimea. In the east, a period from March 17 to 21 was the \u2018boiling point\u2019 and a good time for Putin to invade, but he missed it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr. Tymchuk believes that separatist movement in the east of Ukraine poses a much greater threat today. \u201cPutin has plans to create a critical situation in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkiv and to have separatist seize local government buildings, proclaim a republic, ask Russian troops for protection and request a referendum,\u201d Mr. Tymchuk said, \u201cHowever, they haven\u2019t had any success so far, and the law enforcement authorities have finally took over the initiative and are regaining control in the east little by little. I am 90% sure that if the invasion happens, it will not be a full-fledged military operation, but rather an infiltration of separate Russian units disguised as \u2018little green men\u2019 to reinforce the separatists. According to our information, 24 hours ago Kremlin made a decision to refrain from invading until separatists have achieved \u2018success\u2019 in the said regions. We also know that Russia\u2019s Federal Security Service (FSB) and Main Intelligence Inspectorate (GRU) have stepped up their effort to develop the scenario and are now working with the separatist leaders, sending them clear instructions for further actions. Their task is to create great resonance by engaging the locals, get them to take to the streets, and stage a mob scene. This is why it is important today to monitor the separatists\u2019 activities and, judging by the operations recently conducted by the Ukrainian security services, we are succeeding in that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mass sabotage by the local police officers is another critical factor, according to Mr. Tymchuk. Some officers are refusing to do their job of arresting the perpetrators and protecting local citizens. However, he says that this problem is being resolved gradually by replacing these people with patriotically-minded officers.<\/p>\n

Dmytro Tymchuk\u2019s general observation is that owing to the economic and military sanctions against Russia on the part of the USA and EU, unanimous support of Ukraine at the UN, PACE and OSCE, the current situation is a lot more favorable to us than it was during the Crimean invasion. \u201cWe do not know how far Putin will go, but we can see quite well that Kremlin does not have a clear plan,\u201d said Mr. Tymchuk, \u201cThe scenario keeps getting adjusted, and you can sense the GRU and FSB\u2019s involvement. Nevertheless, time is on our side: the morale of the troops mobilized to the border keeps declining, the separatist rampage in the east is more or less controlled by the Security Service of Ukraine and, fortunately, the ideas of federalization are not as widely supported in Eastern Ukraine as he expected. Everything points to the fact that Putin has lost the lucky moment to openly invade Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dmytro Tymchuk is the Director of the Center for Military and Political Research and coordinator of the Information Resistance Group.<\/p>\n

Photo:\u00a0\u00a0dyvys.in<\/a><\/p>\n

Watch video [icon icon=’Icomoon\/icomoon-youtube-2′]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kyiv, 11 April 2014, \u2013 Dmytro Tymchuk, Director of the Center for Military and Political Research and coordinator of the Information Resistance Group, spoke at the Ukraine Crisis Media Center about the build-up of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border, most probable scenarios for Putin\u2019s next steps and separatist movement in the east of Ukraine […] More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":10576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":[],"categories":[705],"tags":[803],"section":[648],"form":[31956],"yoast_head":"\nDmytro Tymchuk: Crimean Scenario Will Not Work in Eastern Ukraine \u2013 Putin Missed the Critical Moment for Invasion Here in March | UACRISIS.ORG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=GgNfaEu-hfA Kyiv, 11 April 2014, \u2013 Dmytro Tymchuk, Director of the Center for Military and Political Research and | Uacrisis.org\" \/>\n<meta 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