{"id":115988,"date":"2020-05-05T10:58:29","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T07:58:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=115988"},"modified":"2020-05-05T21:27:47","modified_gmt":"2020-05-05T18:27:47","slug":"destabilize-at-any-cost-how-kremlin-opts-for-third-maidan-during-the-pandemic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/destabilize-at-any-cost-how-kremlin-opts-for-third-maidan-during-the-pandemic","title":{"rendered":"Destabilize at any cost. How Kremlin opts for \u201cThird Maidan\u201d during the pandemic"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the midst of pandemic, Russian agents of influence in Ukraine have yet again returned to the old method of undermining it \u2013 by destabilizing the state from within and cooking up the prophesies of \u201cThird Maidan\u201d. One of the most notorious pro-Russian resources tasked with spreading disinformation about Ukraine, Strana.ua, has published two pieces on the same topic during one day. Both of them were dedicated to exploring \u2013 and overstating \u2013 public dissatisfaction with economic hardships caused by quarantine limitations. Meticulous tracking of the issue and thinly veiled manipulation to incite the protests<\/strong> by naming them \u201cQuarantine Maidan<\/a>\u201d is not an isolated case. It fits the broader framework laid out by other media and political actors close to Kremlin \u2013 such as Andriy Palchevsky. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Job Description \u2013 Protests. Report to Moscow. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calls for protests due to quarantine measures are a long-running campaign, amplified by pro-Russian resources spreading disinformation<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A former Russian businessman and politician, reportedly linked to GRU, Palchevsky has moved his activities to Ukraine but not his sentiments. In his video address, after claiming that people \u201ctake to the streets for any idea, except for one \u2013 when they have nothing to eat, nothing to feed kids with, everyone is silent<\/em>\u201d he implicitly called for a revolt<\/strong>, asking \u201cWhen will we start demanding that government \u2013 red, green, blue, orange \u2013 treats our needs the way they are treated in the whole world?\u201d<\/em>. The message, published on his Facebook page, was quickly disseminated by media, and mostly by the so-called \u201cjunk\u201d web-sites that are often used as a mediator in info operations, implanting the message in media space. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, outlets such as\u00a0Politeka.net<\/a>,\u00a0Antifashist.com<\/a>,\u00a0Novosti-Novorossii.Info<\/a>\u00a0that covered Palchevsky\u2019s address \u2013 sometimes with gleeful titles akin to \u201cPalchevsky evaluates the possibility of a new Maidan in Ukraine\u201d and \u201cEnough with Patience! Palchevsky urges Ukrainians to revolt\u201d \u2013 are\u00a0explicit hotspots of Russian disinformation<\/strong>, which is often evident from their very names. \u201cAntifashist\u201d exploits one of the top Kremlin\u2019s narratives on Ukraine as a fascist state and \u201cNovosti Novorossii\u201d \u2013 News of\u00a0Novorossiya<\/em>, an ideological golem created by Putin\u2019s vizier to occupy South-Eastern Ukraine, \u2013 speak for themselves.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Palchevsky\u2019s falling out with the government \u2013 and subsequent promotion of his messages by pro-Russian web-sites \u2013 is also far from being a one-time event. He has been pursuing the same agenda of facilitating public dissatisfaction for some time now \u2013 e.g., in February he straddled the protests against what he called \u201cdraconian\u201d fiscal measures, covered, among other resources, by the same Politeka.net<\/a> outlet. The issues at the center of his attention are economic, and they are also the centerpiece around which other actors linked to Moscow build their campaign to destabilize the state. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economy as a battleground for influence operations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic grievances are also used by Opposition Platform \u2013 For Life to destabilize the government and push Ukraine closer to Russia<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UCMC has previously explored<\/a> how the COVID-19 pandemic created a window of opportunity for the actors close to Kremlin to seek rapprochement with Russia at the expense of Ukrainian national interests. In particular, Viktor Medvedchuk and \u201cOpposition Platform \u2013 For Life\u201d keep promoting their own solution to \u201chelp\u201d with the pandemic-inflicted economic crisis: asking for financial aid from Russia, surviving default as means necessary to get rid of the \u201cforeign governance\u201d allegedly imposed on Ukraine by the West and lifting sanctions from Russia. This package of measures indeed looks helpful \u2013 just for Moscow and not for Kyiv.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPFL\u2019s [OPFL is a major, but not only force behind the promotion of default \u2013 deputies close to oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky constitute another faction in the movement.] movement for default takes place mostly in the plenary sessions hall of the parliament, where some MPs stall voting for two key bills on land market and banking sector, necessary to receive support from IMF as a means to avoid default. Still, the legendary 16,000+ proposed amendments to the banking bill, aimed at effectively killing the procedure, and campaign against land market reform widely covered by ZIK, 112 and NewsOne (channels linked to Medvedchuk) are a rather explicit component of the struggle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Palchevsky joined the OPFL\u2019s fight against land market \u2013 and, in what seems to be his favorite manner, called for protests<\/a>, insisting that \u201cmartial law will be soon introduced, if in two weeks people who have run out of money will realize they have no other choice and they must take to the streets with coronavirus, otherwise these jerks [vulg.] will ultimately finish us\u201d.  <\/em>This more implicit part of the story may not catch as much attention, but is no less important than the flashy battles in the parliament \u2013 in part because it is not a new phenomenon but a continuation of a long-running Russian operation \u201cThird Maidan\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Same Old Song<\/em><\/strong> by Kremlin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the context changes, Moscow uses different pretext in its consistent attempts to weaken Ukrainian government and undermine Revolution of Dignity in the framework of the same operation \u201cThird Maidan\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calls for the \u201cThird Maidan\u201d have been a trademark ongoing operation in Ukraine, tracing back to 2014-2015. Back in the time, it was mostly built around mobilization to the Armed Forces, but as context changed so did the pretext \u2013 with the strategic goal and tools to reach it remaining the same. In addition to utilizing local proxies for destabilization and creating a distorted media reality<\/strong> both on Kremlin-controlled TV and in other dubious channels of communication such as the abovementioned \u201cjunk\u201d web-sites, Moscow has traditionally delved into online active measures.<\/strong> Social networks became a battlefield, where seemingly pro-Ukrainian groups on Facebook and in VK.com called for \u201cThird Maidan\u201d \u2013 as it was later discovered, their administrators were often hundreds of kilometers away, in Moscow or Saint Petersburg. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

 By inciting the protests that are attributed a name of \u201cMaidan\u201d agents of influence pursue two goals at once. First, <\/em>they aim to weaken trust into governmental institutions and undermine them, thus making Ukraine less resilient to pressure from Moscow<\/strong> \u2013 if the government does not deteriorate completely, it would, at least, be disoriented and focused on internal struggles. Second, they strive to discredit the name of \u201cMaidan\u201d by intentionally misuing it and, henceforth, discrediting the Revolution of Dignity<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Kremlin, control \u2013 including control over the phenomena far out of its grasp \u2013 has always been heart\u2019s desire. There are only three ways to deal with anything that falls out of line: to crush it out in the open, appropriate it or infiltrate it, lace with poison of destructive influence and watch the enemy destroy themselves from within. Ultimate goal, whatever the approach, remains set in stone \u2013 destruction. And as Ukrainian innate talent of revolution is a Kremlin\u2019s nightmare it can neither crush, nor appropriate, Moscow chooses the third path \u2013 which demands one thing from us first and foremost. It is vigilance. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the midst of pandemic, Russian agents of influence in Ukraine have yet again returned to the old method of undermining it \u2013 by destabilizing the state from within and cooking up the prophesies of \u201cThird Maidan\u201d. One of the most notorious pro-Russian resources tasked with spreading disinformation about Ukraine, Strana.ua, has published two pieces […] More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":115997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[700,699,611,748],"tags":[6310,6206,4928,1380,1124],"section":[726],"form":[31943],"yoast_head":"\nDestabilize at any cost. 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