{"id":117908,"date":"2020-05-22T15:47:54","date_gmt":"2020-05-22T12:47:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=117908"},"modified":"2020-06-23T13:14:25","modified_gmt":"2020-06-23T10:14:25","slug":"implications-of-covid-19-in-the-occupied-territories-of-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/implications-of-covid-19-in-the-occupied-territories-of-ukraine","title":{"rendered":"COVID-404. Implications of COVID-19 in the occupied territories of Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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As Russia comes second in the world with a number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, it retains a remarkably low death toll \u2013 which caused wide suspicion instead of optimism. Financial Times<\/em> and New York Times<\/em>, after taking a look at a spike in Moscow\u2019s all-causes mortality, assume the actual number of deaths from coronavirus in Russia might be 70% higher than official statistics claim<\/a>. Needless to say, Kremlin is not amused \u2013 MFA has already accused the outlets of publishing \u201canother sensationalist anti-Russian fake<\/a>\u201d, demanding the refutation and threatening to revoke journalists\u2019 accreditation. As the proverbial \u201cdon\u2019t believe anything, unless Kremlin denies it\u201d comes to mind, another cause for concern arises. Just how bad is the outbreak \u2013 and what implications it entails \u2013 on the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EASTERN UKRAINE<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lack of testing and classified information make it difficult to establish the actual number of victims.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Puppet governments in Donetsk and Luhansk \u2013 unsurprisingly – follow Kremlin\u2019s playbook. Occupying authorities paint a pretty picture amidst the global pandemic: Donetsk claims there are 214 total cases and 5 deaths<\/a>, while in Luhansk region the situation seems more difficult with 308<\/a> <\/sup>total cases (As of May 15, 2020) \u2013 interestingly, the so-called \u201cMinistry of Health\u201d did not mention the death toll in their latest address. There is little to no belief in these numbers, and not only because Moscow-installed authorities delve in disinformation on daily basis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Red Cross representatives express doubt whether tests for COVID-19 are available on the occupied territories<\/a>. Thus, even establishing an accurate infection rate is close to impossible<\/strong>, although, according to Eastern Rights Group, in certain hospitals patients suspected to have died from COVID-19 are subjected to autopsy \u2013 and the results remain classified<\/a>. With the overall humanitarian crisis occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (ORDLO) are in, the situation is presumably much more dire than propaganda outlets let on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Friends Like These<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kremlin keeps playing the \u201chumanitarian aid\u201d card \u2013 while occupying administrations are more unsustainable than ever, Moscow needs to preserve both its positive image and control over local population. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead of informing the locals about actual situation on the ground \u2013 which, for the abovementioned reasons, likely is a mystery for occupying administrations themselves \u2013 the focus remains where it has been for the last 6 years: spreading pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian disinformation. Russian Federation, as always, is portrayed as the only friend on whom the locals may rely as opposed to Ukraine and the West<\/strong>, which have allegedly abandoned ORLDO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has shut its borders with one exception, and that is precisely the occupied territories \u2013 the explanation lies in a mutual dependence on \u201chumanitarian aid\u201d scheme. For Donetsk and Luhansk as receiving parties the need is understandable. Puppet republics are not only politically, but economically unsustainable,<\/strong> and they cannot manage the situation without external help \u2013 especially considering that it more often than not includes weapons and ammunition, as COVID-19 did not stop hybrid forces from repeatedly violating ceasefire. For Russia the need to supply this aid is less obvious, but still pressing. Without it, not only the PR-opportunity slips away, but the leverage over territories becomes smaller, as there are three crucial tools to control the local population \u2013 military, relentless disinformation and economic incentives<\/strong>. If one of these pillars is undermined, Kremlin has less control over the ever-present threat of chaos. With ongoing attempts to pressure Kyiv into accepting Moscow\u2019s vision of Minsk and subduing it to federalization, tight grip on the local situation is quintessential. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Targeting Ukraine<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n