{"id":120194,"date":"2020-06-26T10:48:12","date_gmt":"2020-06-26T07:48:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=120194"},"modified":"2020-06-26T10:58:10","modified_gmt":"2020-06-26T07:58:10","slug":"how-pro-russian-forces-meddle-in-local-elections-case-of-kyiv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/how-pro-russian-forces-meddle-in-local-elections-case-of-kyiv","title":{"rendered":"How pro-Russian forces meddle in local elections: case of Kyiv"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As Kyiv mayor elections, scheduled for autumn 2020, are fast approaching, key political forces in Ukraine step up their game. Leading position at capital State Administration is traditionally desirable for political and administrative influence it entails, so the competition is fierce \u2013 and not devoid of manipulations, including the use of online trolls and bots, which have become a crucial element in political meddling, be it foreign or domestic. Kyiv deserves special attention not only for its position as a capital, but also because potential fraud taking place here evidences a broader trend. Local elections in the regions, which are also planned for autumn 2020 and have already become a subject of numerous political conflicts, are likely to use a similar tool-kit \u2013 which, as it becomes increasingly obvious, is actively applied by pro-Russian forces to promote their candidates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A specific case caught our attention when we noticed the suspicious online behavior among the supporters, which are highly likely to be inauthentic accounts, of one particular candidate in Kyiv \u2013 Andrii Palchevsky.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who is Mr Palchevsky? <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Andrii Palchevsky is mostly known as a businessman, who had projects both in Ukraine and Russia, but his ties with Moscow are arguably stronger than those with Kyiv, where he was born. Having graduated from a former Military Institute of Foreign Languages in Moscow, directly linked to the Ministry of Defense, he was a career officer and is sometimes linked<\/a> to GRU \u2013 accusations he has obviously denied. He continued his career in Russia and even attempted to get elected to State Duma. After this attempt failed, he moved back to Ukraine, only in the middle of 2000s, where his political ambitions gained more recognition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Palchevsky became a Deputy Minister of Family, Youth and Sports under Prime-Minister Mykola Azarov. It is essential to remember that Azarov was one of the leading members of pro-Russian Party of Regions \u2013 the one behind former President Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted as a result of Euromaidan in 2014 for systemic corruption, police brutality and pro-Russian policies. Both Yanukovych and Azarov unsurprisingly took refuge in Russia, whose position on Kremlin\u2019s aggression against Ukraine they wholeheartedly support. Azarov has repeatedly facilitated Kremlin\u2019s narratives on \u201ccivil war\u201d, \u201cfascist Ukraine\u201d, \u201cdiscrimination of Russian minority\u201d and is a proponent of anti-Western rhetoric. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In presidential election of 2019, Palchevsky supported current President Volodymyr Zelensky. In fact, he expressed hope that Zelensky\u2019s presidency will lead to a \u201creboot\u201d of relations with Russia \u2013 and he did so on air of \u201c60 Minutes\u201d<\/a>, one of top political programs in Russia that has been involved in a constant spread of disinformation regarding both Ukraine and the West. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political Preference<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Palchevsky\u2019s role in former pro-Russian government might not have been indicative of his political preferences, but his sentiment is rather clear. Back in 2011, when he discovered himself as a TV-host, he publicly discussed the idea of Ukrainians and Russian being the same nation with Nikita Mikhalkov \u2013 Russian film-maker who has repeatedly made derogatory claims about Ukrainians. To be precise, Palchevsky said<\/a> \u201cKyiv is a cradle of Russian civilization. Genetically, we are the same nation<\/em>\u201d and talked about the prospects of \u201creunion\u201d between both states. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now Palchevsky supports one of the key pro-Russian actors on Ukrainian landscape \u2013 Viktor Medvedchuk, endorsing his trips to Moscow, where he and other representatives of \u201cOpposition Platform \u2013 For Life\u201d party met Russian leadership and discussed gas issues at their own discretion. One of these trips is now being investigated<\/a> by Prosecutor General\u2019s office for possible state treason. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Palchevsky does not take explicitly pro-Russian stand on Crimea and occupied territories in Eastern Ukraine, for it would likely damage his potential support, his position is ambiguous to say the least. In terms of Crimea he is a proponent of a populist approach that \u201cCrimea will return to prosperous Ukraine<\/em>\u201d, while he does not deny a possibility of giving Donbas region to Russia, saying<\/a> that \u201cPeople must decide at a referendum whether to continue the war and keep Donbas for ourselves or to allow the leader to give it away<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite formerly supporting Zelensky, Palchevsky became increasingly critical of Ukrainian government, particularly after COVID-19 outbreak. He was an active contributor to what can be evaluated as \u201cQuarantine Maidan<\/a>\u201d operation \u2013 a spin of long-running campaign supported by Kremlin to encourage protests and undermine government to make it more susceptible to pressure from Moscow. Along with other activities aimed at polarizing Ukrainian society and promoting Kremlin\u2019s narratives ranging from anti-Western rhetoric to false claims of Revolution of Dignity being a coup and Ukraine being a \u201cfascist state\u201d, this operation was supported by local media linked to Medvedchuk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TV-channels ZIK, NewsOne and 112 provide Palchevsky with a significant amount of screen time. He is a regular guest at top political programs of all three channels, but the most active one is 112 – it has more than 30<\/a> publications on Palchevsky in June 2020. His announcements and publications are also widely circulated by Russian and pro-Russian online media, some of which, like Ukraina.ru and Politnavigator, were blocked by Ukrainian government for propaganda. Some of the news outlets recognized as \u201cjunk-websites\u201d for their low professional standards and accusations of publishing political PR, such as Znaj.ua (related network of accounts was taken off Facebook in 2019) are also quite eager to share Palchevsky\u2019s comments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manipulative Sociology as Electoral Tool<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Palchevsky started to actively campaign for the position of Kyiv mayor in October 2019, almost a year before the election. To pump up the visibility of public support, manipulative sociology was involved, which remains one of the major tools of electoral influence. The Belgium-Ukraine Research Institute (BURI) published a survey, according to which Palchevsky got over 14%, making him a second most popular candidate after the current head of Kyiv City Administration Vitalii Klychko. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Numbers, however, are as questionable as BURI itself. It was called out by one of the well-established Ukrainian think-tanks \u201cDemocratic Initiatives\u201d Foundation and its late director Iryna Bekeshkina, who was among the leading sociologists in Ukraine. There was a good reason to question the transparency of BURI\u2019s efforts and its existence. The company portrayed as an independent and respectable European organization has no functioning web-site<\/a>. Although as of today the place of domain register is concealed, it has been established<\/a> before that BURI was registered from Moscow in 2018. Previously organization was also involved<\/a> in presidential election campaign, claiming pro-Russian candidate Yurii Boiko would get 15% of the votes and come in third in the race. This number, which turned out to be considerably lower, was picked up by Russian and pro-Russian media in their coverage of Ukrainian elections and later used in accusations of elections being rigged. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Palchevsky\u2019s case, his prospects as a mayor according to BURI were first published on a web-site EUtoday<\/a>, positioned as a European outlet to get more credibility with Ukrainian audience. Then they were promoted in a local media space \u2013 first of all, by the abovementioned Znaj.ua, and picked by more mainstream media and in social networks. Interestingly enough, this combination of seemingly European, unbiased and respectable resources did not stop with Boiko or Palchevsky. In February 2020 the very same EUtoday quoted BURI again, claiming there were growing approval numbers for Viktor Medvedchuk himself \u2013 which was unsurprisingly republished<\/a> (2<\/a>) by Medvedchuk\u2019s media. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Campaign for Kyiv Continues<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Manipulative sociology, access to Medvedchuk-linked media and substantial amount of old-fashioned billboards that started appearing back in autumn 2019, long before some of the parties have made decisions about their potential candidates for the position, do not constitute an exhaustive list. There is a high probability that bots are also involved. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A significant amount of Facebook profiles leaving comments in support for Palchevsky on news publications about mayor elections, including at one of the leading outlets Ukrainska Pravda<\/a>,  have a small amount of friends (usually circa 30) and rarely post anything \u2013 in particular, have few photo uploads. Some of them, however, appear to be highly interested in Palchevsky personally. Google Image search for one of the presumed bot accounts generates images of Andrii Palchevsky himself, mostly from publications about him on 112 \u2013 because the person in question has been actively leaving comments under those. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Moreover, opening several of these links demonstrates that the company commenting in support of Palchevsky is largely the same \u2013 there is a similar set of the same ~10 accounts that post comments under relevant publications, and two profiles seem to consistently post after each other, sometimes engaging in a mutually supportive conversation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NB: While there is no conclusive proof that these are not original Facebook accounts, such patterns are likely to indicate inauthentic coordinated behavior. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the generic complimentary comments, there are several main groups of messages promoted by presumed bot accounts in regard to Palchevsky\u2019s candidacy as a mayor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n