{"id":145044,"date":"2021-07-09T20:28:53","date_gmt":"2021-07-09T17:28:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=145044"},"modified":"2021-07-09T20:28:59","modified_gmt":"2021-07-09T17:28:59","slug":"changing-face-pro-russian-forces","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/changing-face-pro-russian-forces","title":{"rendered":"The changing face of pro-Russian political forces in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In mid-2021, the old and the new pro-Russian parties in Ukraine entered turbulent times. As soon as President Volodymyr Zelenskyi started shaping the politics with sanctions of the National Security and Defense Council, particularly the sanctions against Medvedchuk, the parties relying on the voters in the east and south took a hard hit. This week, court has extended pretrial house arrest to Viktor Medvedchuk who was charged with treason. While action against Medvedchuk has weakened his political force, the voters\u2019 demand it used to respond to stays. Ukrainian media outlet \u201cUkrainska Pravda\u201d (Ukrainian Truth) has analyzed<\/a> the the structure and dynamics of pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. Here are the highlights of the analysis.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2014: decreased approval of pro-Russian forces against a backdrop of war.\n<\/strong>Russia\u2019s illegal\nannexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas shook the established balance\nof voters\u2019 preferences in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the times of the\nfirst elections in 1991 until the 2012 elections, there were as many\npro-Western voters in Ukraine as pro-Russian ones. After the Russian\naggression, pro-Russian parties lost a few million supporters all at once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deputy director of the\nKyiv International Institute of Sociology Anton Hrushetskyi says voters of\nnational-democratic forces outnumber those of pro-Russian forces. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cVoters in Ukraine can\nbe split in groups: 40-45 per cent form the national-patriotic group. Some\n30-35 per cent are critical of the government and can be targeted by\npro-Russian parties. In between, there are 20 per cent of undecided voters,\u201d\nthe sociologist explains.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s aggression narrowed\nthe electoral base of the parties that used to lobby Russia\u2019s interests in\nUkraine and encourage rapprochement between Kyiv and Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most recent surveys released\nin June find that the only pro-Russian party that has chances to be elected is\nthe \u201cOpposition Platform \u2013 for Life\u201d (Opozytsiyna Platforma \u2013 Za Zhyttia).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The largest pro-Russian party splits in two. <\/strong>\u201cOpposition Platform \u2013 for Life\u201d is\nthe largest pro-Russian party in Ukraine and the only one represented in\nParliament, it has 44 seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The core party voters\nare seniors with conservative views. More than half of the voters of the party\nled by Lyovochkin and Medvedchuk are ages 60 and older. \u201cOpposition Platform \u2013 for\nLife\u201d rely on the oldest voters: 23 per cent are ages 45 to 59, and 51 per cent\nare ages 60 and older. Three-quarters of the party\u2019s voters are older groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOpposition Platform \u2013 for\nLife\u201d is composed of two large groups \u2013 the wing of Medvedchuk and Rabinovych,\nand the wing of Lyovochkin and Firtash.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The party has two public\nleaders \u2013 Viktor Medvedchuk positioned as the Kremlin\u2019s ally, and Yuriy Boiko assuming\nthe role of a \u201crobust administrative manager\u201d, commonly exploited by Yanukovych.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was hostility\nbetween the two groups, they even competed for authority within the party. The\ncompetition ended as soon as the National Security and Defense Council imposed\nthe sanctions on Medvedchuk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe now have to lean\ntoward Lyovochkin,\u201d an unnamed ally of Medvedchuk told \u201cUkrainska Pravda\u201d\nshortly after the rollout of the sanctions.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the sanctions were\nimposed on Medvedchuk and the television channels associated with him were shut\ndown, Serhiy Lyovochkin did get some benefits. He continues to own the television\nchannel Inter, and his crony Boyko cemented his public position of a party\nleader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, not only Medvedchuk\u2019s\nimage, but the entire party took a hit from sanctions. In December 2020, the\nparty\u2019s approval rating topped 20 per cent. In March 2021, as the sanctions went\ninto effect, it decreased to about 14 per cent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The present approval\nrating of the party nears 12-13 per cent, latest surveys find.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demand for stability and economic well-being outweighs the drive to \u201cbe friends\nwith Russia\u201d.<\/strong> Closer\nties with Russia have long stopped being the key promise by pro-Russian forces\nin Ukraine. Instead, the need for stability and economic well-being took center\nstage, it is the major demand of the voters of the former \u201cParty of Regions\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is a demand for\nthe \u2018strong hand\u2019 of a Soviet-type manager \u2013 that\u2019s not a problem that they\nsteal, if they make something for the community. Remember, how many corruption\nscandals linked to (mayor) Kernes broke out, but Kharkivites only seemed to\nlike him more,\u201d said Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the sociological group Rating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To the voters in the\nsouth and east, rapprochement with Russia is not as important as salaries,\npensions, utility bills, and social justice, the sociologist proceeds. While\nthe calls for friendship with Russia stay at the background, they have lost\npriority in the past years due to Russia\u2019s actions in the first place. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demand for changes and fresh faces. <\/strong>Even conservative voters in the south and east\nwant changes. Younger voters are more prone to choosing new politicians and\nprojects, surveys find.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the crisis of trust\nin the new President and his party \u201cServant of the People\u201d (Sluha Narodu) looming\nin 2019, the virtual party of the Spain-based blogger Anatoiy Shariy started\ngaining support of the pro-Russian electoral base. The party\u2019s voters are young\n\u2013 32 per cent are ages under 30, and 44 per cent are ages 30 to 44.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After Medvedchuk and his\ntelevisions channels took a hit in early 2021, the approval rating of a former \u201cOpposition\nBloc\u201d member Yevhen Murayev increased. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has been high in the\npast months: from two to four-five per cent, pollsters say. Murayev\u2019s electoral\nbase is also rather young, those are voters ages 30 to 59, deputy director of\nthe Kyiv International Institute of Sociology Anton Hrushetskyi says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite targeting a\nsimilar group of voters, Shariy and Murayev respond to different demands,\nAntypovych of the Rating group notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cShariy is a virtual\nfigure. His audience is his voters, those are active young people. Murayev\nresponds to the demand for rejuvenation within what used to be the \u2018Party of\nRegions\u2019,\u201d the sociologist says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All the above political\nprojects hardly cover half of the potential of the 35-per-cent segment of pro-Russian\nvoters. In other words, one-in-two voters in the south and east are either looking\nfor a different political force to support, or are undecided who to vote for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new pro-Russian party in Ukraine?<\/strong> There is electoral base still available for\npro-Russian parties in Ukraine that emphasize economic stability. Projects are\nemerging responding to that potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the political projects\ndrawing on the popularity of the former \u201cParty of Regions\u201d can be the party \u201cUkraine\nIs Our House\u201d (Ukraina \u2013 nash dim) of Borys Kolesnikov, Vice Prime Minister in\nAzarov\u2019s government under Yanukovych\u2019s presidency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The project is often referred\nto as Akhmetov\u2019s new enterprise, but the oligarch has neither financed nor contributed\nto it, \u201cUkrainska Pravda\u201d found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Initially, Kolesnikov\ndenied his party-building efforts, but later acknowledged them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe main idea is to\ngather best people from all sectors \u2013 industry, agriculture, information\ntechnologies, healthcare, education, welfare, small and mid-size enterprises,\u201d\nKolesnikov said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He now readies for the launch\nof the party, Kolesnikov told \u201cUkrainska Pravda\u201d.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a work in\nprogress. No news will come out before the Independence Day,\u201d Kolesnikov said\nhinting that his political force will be publicly presented on August 24. On\nthe day that marks the 30th<\/sup> anniversary of Ukraine\u2019s independence a\nnew pro-Russian political force can emerge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In mid-2021, the old and the new pro-Russian parties in Ukraine entered turbulent times. As soon as President Volodymyr Zelenskyi started shaping the politics with sanctions of the National Security and Defense Council, particularly the sanctions against Medvedchuk, the parties relying on the voters in the east and south took a hard hit. This week, […] More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":145045,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[699,748],"tags":[32117],"section":[743,743],"form":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe changing face of pro-Russian political forces in Ukraine | UACRISIS.ORG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In mid-2021, the old and the new pro-Russian parties in Ukraine entered turbulent times. 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