{"id":163884,"date":"2022-02-18T12:59:03","date_gmt":"2022-02-18T10:59:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=163884"},"modified":"2022-02-18T23:42:03","modified_gmt":"2022-02-18T21:42:03","slug":"russia-s-escalation-in-donbas-fresh-threats-to-west-renew-fears-of-invasion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/russia-s-escalation-in-donbas-fresh-threats-to-west-renew-fears-of-invasion","title":{"rendered":"Russia\u2019s escalation in Donbas, fresh threats to West renew fears of invasion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>This past week, tensions flared around Ukraine. As the country braced for a possible invasion on February 16, Russia softened rhetoric. President Putin agreed to continue talks and end some of the military drills in meetings with Foreign Minister Lavrov and Defense Minister Shoigu. A day later, the Russian Duma passed an appeal to Putin to recognize the so-called \u201cDNR\u201d and \u201cLNR\u201d. On February 17, the military situation on the ground in Donbas escalated as Russia-led forces shelled the government-held area all along the line of contact. What does that say about the Kremlin\u2019s plans? Here\u2019s a look at how Ukraine and Western allies respond.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Spike in attacks in Donbas.&nbsp;<\/strong>On February 17, Russia-backed militants carried out attacks on two dozen near-front towns in the government-controlled part of Donbas with weapons banned under the Minsk agreements.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two Ukrainian service members were wounded in action, and two civilians were injured. In Stanytsia Luhanska, shells hit a kindergarten facility while the children were inside. The children were not injured as they were in a different room. Three kindergarten staff suffered concussion.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Later that day, shells hit a school in Vrubivka while 30 students and 14 staff were inside. They had to escape shelling in the basement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On February 17, Russia-led forces made 60 attacks, of which 43 included the use of weapons banned under the Minsk agreements. As of 5 p.m. on February 18, they carried out 53 attacks, of which 41 included the use of weapons banned under the Minsk agreements.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Russia\u2019s controversial reports on kindergarten shelling.&nbsp;<\/strong>On the day of the attack, Russia\u2019s propaganda outlets faulted the Ukrainian troops for shelling a kindergarten in the occupied area. First reports said the shelling of a kindergarten in government-controlled Stanytsia Luhanska was fake, and later pieces accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the attack. Kremlin-controlled media including RIA Novosti and Komsomolskaya Pravda reproduced false claims.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Russia responds to US\u2019s proposals.<\/strong>&nbsp;On the same day, Russia sent a response to U.S. proposals, threatening to use \u201cmilitary-technical measures\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe are stating that the American side did not give a constructive response to the basic elements of the draft treaty with the United States prepared by the Russian side on security guarantees,\u201d the document reads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees of our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures,\u201d the document said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia has demanded written guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward, would block future membership for Ukraine and Georgia, would pull back troops stationed in countries that joined the alliance after 1997, and would return to its pre-1997 borders. The demands were \u201cof utmost importance to Russia,\u201d the response said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russian invasion of Ukraine is not planned, the document said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Prospects of Ukraine joining NATO, Zelenskyi\u2019s comments.&nbsp;<\/strong>For Ukraine, joining the NATO alliance is a guarantee of not losing its independence. There is no other path than NATO for Ukraine, President Zelenskyi told BBC correspondent Sarah Rainsford. Answering her question on whether Ukraine is ready to drop its ambition of joining NATO, he said: \u201cI understand what you want to get, but it\u2019s not the ambitions. We lost 15,000 people since the beginning of this war. It\u2019s not the ambitions, it\u2019s our life.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zelenskyi acknowledged that the path toward Ukraine\u2019s membership in NATO and the EU can be long, what\u2019s key down that path is \u201cnot to lose the country,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia fuels the crisis around Ukraine\u2019s prospects of joining the alliance to justify its buildup on the border under the pretext that \u201cit allegedly protects its sovereignty,\u201d Zelenskyi was quoted as saying. Those statements are twisted, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe cannot accept a return to an age of spheres of influence. Where big powers bully, intimidate, or dictate to others,\u201d NATO\u2019s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a news conference Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Statements by U.S. Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense.&nbsp;<\/strong>\u201cRussia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack,\u201d U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Thursday at the United Nations Security Council meeting in New York. \u201cThis could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian Government.&nbsp;&nbsp;We don\u2019t know exactly the form it will take.&nbsp;&nbsp;It could be a fabricated so-called \u2018terrorist\u2019 bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake \u2013 even a real \u2013 attack using chemical weapons.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide, Blinken said. Russia says it\u2019s drawing down the forces on Ukraine\u2019s border. The U.S., Allies and partners do not see that happening on the ground. \u201cOur information indicates clearly that these forces \u2013 including ground troops, aircraft, ships \u2013 are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days,\u201d the U.S. Secretary said. Russia has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine\u2019s border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cNext, the attack is planned to begin. Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine.&nbsp;&nbsp;Communications will be jammed.&nbsp;&nbsp;Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Ukraine\u2019s capital, Kyiv,\u201d Blinken was quoted as saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe even see them (Russians) stocking up their blood supplies. (\u2026) you don&#8217;t do these sort of things for no reason,\u201d U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at a press availability at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Formal start of Ukraine\u2019s new alliance with UK, Poland.&nbsp;<\/strong>Ukraine, the UK, and Poland announced the formal start of a new grouping in Kyiv on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI believe that in the historic perspective, the new axis London-Warsaw-Kyiv will make an important contribution \u2013 it will strengthen the area between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea, and create a new geopolitical reality in this part of Europe,\u201d Ukraine\u2019s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a Facebook post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn life, we don\u2019t just deal with problems that we have today. We do not forget about Ukraine\u2019s long-term strategic goals, and continue to pursue the strategy of proactive foreign policy. If we drop our long-term course because of Russia\u2019s threats and allow Russia to make us dependent on its constant demands and threats, we will never win.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOnly if we take a proactive stance and consider long-term prospects, we\u2019ll be able to overturn the course of this hybrid war. The trilateral alliance is one of those steps.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur new format fits into our wider strategy of small alliances that include the Lublin Triangle, the Association Trio, and the Quad with Turkey. Small alliances can address actual issues now: bolster defense capabilities, implement economic projects, develop transportation infrastructure, solidify energy security, and counter hybrid threats together.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe are pursuing a strategy we have. We are at the center, not on the margins. The crisis will end, and Ukraine will stay \u2013 a strong state with strong alliances,\u201d Kuleba said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This past week, tensions flared around Ukraine. As the country braced for a possible invasion on February 16, Russia softened rhetoric. President Putin agreed to continue talks and end some of the military drills in meetings with Foreign Minister Lavrov and Defense Minister Shoigu. A day later, the Russian Duma passed an appeal to Putin [&hellip;] <a class=\"g1-link g1-link-more\" href=\"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/russia-s-escalation-in-donbas-fresh-threats-to-west-renew-fears-of-invasion\">More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":163809,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[700,699,611],"tags":[],"section":[743,648],"form":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Russia\u2019s escalation in Donbas, fresh threats to West renew fears of invasion | UACRISIS.ORG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This past week, tensions flared around Ukraine. As the country braced for a possible invasion on February 16, Russia softened rhetoric. 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