{"id":163959,"date":"2022-02-19T12:47:56","date_gmt":"2022-02-19T10:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=163959"},"modified":"2022-02-19T14:46:31","modified_gmt":"2022-02-19T12:46:31","slug":"escalation-not-evacuation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/escalation-not-evacuation","title":{"rendered":"Escalation Not Evacuation: Recent Developments of the Russian Military Threat Against Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The heightened tensions regarding Russian military buildup on Ukrainian borders, threatening with renewed large-scale invasion, have just reached their peak and the stakes keep rising. With more than 130,000 Russian troops<\/a> (some sources name a higher number) close by, the news of massive \u201cevacuation\u201d<\/strong> announced by the Kremlin-controlled puppet governments in Donetsk and Luhansk on February 18, 2022 marks a new wave of escalation.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Planned \u201cSpontaneity\u201d <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The necessity of \u201cevacuation\u201d, mostly to the neighboring Rostov region in Russia, is explained by the occupying authorities with the alleged threat of \u201cimminent Ukrainian offensive\u201d. These claims have been repeatedly debunked by Ukrainian officials (see, for example, the statement<\/a> by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba), not to mention that the idea of Ukraine launching offense after almost 8 years of defensive approach and precisely when the Russian Federation has amassed such a substantial military presence is simply illogical. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the \u201cevacuation\u201d appears to be rather all-too-well planned to be a forced response to a sudden threat. The key indicator to this is hidden in metadata of the video statements made by D.Pushilin and L.Pasechnik<\/strong>, Russia-installed leaders of the so-called \u201cDPR\u201d and \u201cLNR\u201d \u2013 numerous open-data researchers and journalists including Bellingcat confirm<\/a> that the videos have been recorded on February 16, before the occupying authorities started accusing Ukraine of preparing to attack. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/strong>Maintaining Tension <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Increased shelling<\/strong><\/a>, presented by the occupying authorities as attacks from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), contributes to maintaining tension and urging people to leave<\/strong>. At the same time, the so-called \u201cprosecutor general\u201d of the puppet republic in Luhansk posted<\/a> a video on social media, boasting of attacking Ukrainian positions from the weaponry forbidden by the Minsk agreements. Additionally, a car <\/strong>explosion<\/strong><\/a> in Donetsk<\/strong> (which the Investigation Committee of the Russian Federation has already opened a case about, but which is believed by Ukraine and the US officials to be staged) and massive gas-pipe explosion in Luhansk<\/strong> also promote panic. Some Telegram channels affiliated with the occupying authorities have already blamed this explosion on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another worrying development is the fact that \u201cevacuation\u201d is partial \u2013 on February 18, when it was just announced, men from 18 to 55 were not able to leave. The next day both Pushilin and Pasechnik <\/strong>signed decrees<\/strong><\/a> on illegal \u201cmobilization\u201d. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evacuation or Deportation? <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Among the first people to be \u201cevacuated\u201d were minors, including orphans<\/a>, from the occupied Donetsk \u2013 meaning, they had no opportunity to oppose the decision that, at least partially, appears to be closer to deportation than actual evacuation.<\/strong>  Occupying authorities push for civilians to leave heavily, including the massive dissemination of SMS messages to the locals urging them to evacuate. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has announced<\/a> that each \u201crefugee\u201d is entitled to receive 10,000 rubles (approximately 130 Euros) from the Russian government upon relocation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the term \u201crefugee\u201d is not completely accurate, because Ukrainians on the occupied territories are not in any danger coming from the Ukrainian side \u2013 on the contrary, there is a high risk that evacuees may be attacked by Russian proxy forces themselves in a false flag operation<\/strong> to blame the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a pretext for a potential large-scale attack. A similar approach has been taken by the Russian Federation in Georgia in 2008. Therefore, one of the most crucial messages with which the Ukrainian government responded<\/a> to these developments was a strong urge for the people in Donetsk and Luhansk regions to avoid \u201cevacuation\u201d at all costs. Moreover, they were advised to stay at home, as according to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine the threat of terrorist attack on the occupied territories has <\/strong>increased<\/strong><\/a> due to the \u201cmining of some social infrastructure facilities in Donetsk by Russian special services\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

How the Ground was Laid <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The ongoing escalation takes place in a previously created context that includes increasingly aggressive and intense disinformation. Part of this disinformation since mid-February was centered on the \u201cgenocide against the people of Donbas\u201d messaging<\/strong> \u2013 just a day after Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of conducting \u201cgenocide\u201d, The Investigative Committee released<\/a> information on the \u201cmass graves\u201d allegedly found in the occupied territories and tried to pin on the AFU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the shelling of kindergarten in Stanitsa Luhanska on February 17th<\/sup> was another destabilization attempt. Initially, the occupying authorities accused the AFU of attacking the kindergarten in the so-called \u201cLNR\u201d. However, it quickly became clear<\/a> that the place in question was actually located on the government-controlled territory of Ukraine and attacked by the Russian proxy forces to provoke Ukrainian forces to retaliate. The attack involving children was a powerful emotional trigger to further set the ground for the current escalation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Next?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As the situation is rapidly evolving, predictions remain problematic. While the US President Joe Biden in his address on February 18 appeared convinced<\/a> that Putin has made a decision to invade, Ukrainian authorities remain convinced<\/a> that while substantial provocations are possible, a large-scale invasion is unlikely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It appears that things may change on the ground and go in vastly different directions \u2013 which adds uncertainty but also allows Ukraine and allies to change the situation. Preemptive declassification and dissemination of sensitive data exposing potential Russian plans, actively used by the US intelligence, appears to be an important element of deterrence strategy<\/strong> \u2013 along with collective effort to supply Ukraine with weapons – provide military assistance and demonstrate solidarity in a face of the looming threat.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This strategy is likely to work, but when it does, Russian aggression will not be over in a moment and will still remain a challenge to the security of Ukraine and regional security as a whole. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The heightened tensions regarding Russian military buildup on Ukrainian borders, threatening with renewed large-scale invasion, have just reached their peak and the stakes keep rising. With more than 130,000 Russian troops (some sources name a higher number) close by, the news of massive \u201cevacuation\u201d announced by the Kremlin-controlled puppet governments in Donetsk and Luhansk on […] More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":163976,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[700,699,611,748],"tags":[32502,32628,1380],"section":[726],"form":[31943],"yoast_head":"\nEscalation Not Evacuation: Recent Developments of the Russian Military Threat Against Ukraine | UACRISIS.ORG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The heightened tensions regarding Russian military buildup on Ukrainian borders, threatening with renewed large-scale invasion, have just reached their | Uacrisis.org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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