Russia\u2019s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out, according to The Economist\u2019s analysis. The European Parliament passes a resolution reaffirming support for Ukraine, condemning Orb\u00e1n\u2019s self-styled \u201cpeace mission\u201d. Britain\u2019s government will strive to play a leading role in providing Ukraine with a clear path to NATO membership, King Charles III says presenting government plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia is able to replace its staggering losses of tanks, armoured infantry vehicles and artillery only by drawing out of storage and refurbishing stocks built up in the Soviet era, according to the analysts cited by The Economist. Up to 70 per cent of old tanks that had been taken out of storage and given a wash and brush-up \u201chave not moved an inch since the beginning of the war.\u201d Russian forces also cannibalize the barrels from old towed artillery and fit them to self-propelled howitzers. At current rates of attrition, Russia\u2019s military stocks will have reached a \u201ccritical point of exhaustion\u201d by the second half of next year, the article states. The paragraphs below are quoted from the piece. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
For a long time, it seemed that a war of attrition between Ukraine and a Russia with five times its population could only end one way. But the much-vaunted Russian offensive against Kharkiv in the north that started in May is fizzling out. Its advances elsewhere along the line, especially in the Donbas region, have been both strategically trivial and achieved only at huge cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The question now is less whether Ukraine can stay in the fight and more how long can Russia maintain its current tempo of operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The key issue is not manpower. Russia seems able to go on finding another 25,000 or so soldiers each month to maintain numbers at the front of around 470,000, although it is paying more for them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Production of missiles to strike Ukrainian infrastructure is also surging. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But for all the talk about Russia having become a war economy, with some 8% of its GDP devoted to military spending, it is able to replace its staggering losses of tanks, armoured infantry vehicles and artillery only by drawing out of storage and refurbishing stocks built up in the Soviet era. Huge though these stocks are, they are not infinite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to most intelligence estimates, after the first two years of the war Russia had lost about 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armoured vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oryx, a Dutch open-source intelligence site, puts the number of Russian tank losses for which it has either photo or videographic evidence currently at 3,235, but suggests the actual number is \u201csignificantly higher\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aleksandr Golts, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, says that Vladimir Putin has the old Politburo to thank for the huge stockpiles of weapons that were built up during the cold war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When the then defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, boasted in December 2023 that 1,530 tanks had been delivered in the course of the year, he omitted to say that nearly 85% of them, according to an assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think-tank, were not new tanks but old ones (mainly T-72s, also T-62s and even some T-55s dating from just after the second world war) that had been taken out of storage and given a wash and brush-up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since the invasion, about 175 reasonably modern T-90M tanks have been sent to the front line. The IISS estimates that annual production this year could be approaching 90. However, Michael Gjerstad, an analyst with the IISS, argues that most of the T-90Ms are actually upgrades of older T-90As. As those numbers dwindle, production of newly built T-90Ms this year might be no more than 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another major concern is artillery-barrel production. For now, with the help of North Korea, Russia appears to have enough shells, probably about 3m this year\u2014sufficient to outgun the Ukrainians until recently by at least 5:1 and sometimes by much more. But the downside of such high rates of fire has been the wear and tear on barrels. In some highly contested areas, the barrels of howitzers need replacing after only a few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts cited by The Economist reckon that at current rates of attrition, Russian tank and infantry vehicle refurbishment from storage will have reached a \u201ccritical point of exhaustion\u201d by the second half of next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unless something changes, before the end of this year Russian forces may have to adjust their posture to one that is much more defensive, says Mr Gjerstad. It could even become apparent before the end of summer. Expect Mr Putin\u2019s interest in agreeing a temporary ceasefire to increase. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a vote Wednesday, members of the European Parliament condemned Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s misuse of EU\u2019s rotating presidency in passing a resolution that provided a commitment by the Parliament to maintain its support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The resolution passed by a vote of 495 to 137 with 47 abstentions. The European Parliament reaffirmed \u201cits positions on the continued support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The declaration approved by the European Parliament \u201ccondemns the recent visit of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n to the Russian Federation; stresses that during this visit, he did not represent the EU, and considers the visit to be a blatant violation of the EU\u2019s Treaties and common foreign policy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The EU assembly deplores the fact that Hungary has abused its rotating presidency of the bloc. MEPs urged Hungary to lift its blockade of the European Peace Facility funding for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The EU Parliament\u2019s resolution reaffirmed the institution\u2019s support for Ukraine, welcomed the recently launched EU accession negotiations with Ukraine, and called for the bloc to establish a sound legal regime for the confiscation of Russian state-owned assets frozen by the EU. MEPs also condemned a recent Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt children\u2019s hospital and an increasing number of Russia\u2019s hybrid attacks against the EU and its member states. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The resolution calls on the EU Council to \u201cmaintain and extend its sanctions policy against Russia and Belarus while monitoring, reviewing and enhancing its effectiveness and impact.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The resolution reaffirming support for Ukraine is the European Parliament\u2019s first one after the June election. MEPs rejected a proposal to discuss the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and rising political violence. The Patriots for Europe group requested a debate on the Trump shooting and called for a resolution condemning the violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In response to Orb\u00e1n\u2019s actions, the European Commission and some nations said their top officials would boycott meetings in Budapest and send civil servants instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The EU Commission said it cannot suspend Hungary\u2019s voting rights in the Council, but can boycott its meetings by sending lower-level officials to attend them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Britain\u2019s new government led by Keir Starmer will strive to play a leading role in charting a clear path forward for Ukraine\u2019s NATO membership, King Charles said, setting out Labour government\u2019s plans and priorities in King\u2019s Speech Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMy Government will continue to give its full support to Ukraine and its people and it will endeavour to play a leading role in providing Ukraine with a clear path to NATO membership,\u201d the king said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The King’s Speech also outlined plans to \u201creset\u201d the UK\u2019s relationship with Europe and improve trade with the bloc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMy Government will seek to reset the relationship with European partners and work to improve the United Kingdom\u2019s trade and investment relationship with the European Union. My Ministers will seek a new security pact to strengthen cooperation on the mutual threats faced by the United Kingdom and the European Union,\u201d King Charles III said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"