{"id":312317,"date":"2024-09-27T13:02:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T10:02:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=312317"},"modified":"2024-09-27T18:00:55","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T15:00:55","slug":"more-empty-threats-putin-amends-nuclear-doctrine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/more-empty-threats-putin-amends-nuclear-doctrine","title":{"rendered":"More Empty Threats? Putin Amends Nuclear Doctrine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Matt Wickham UCMC Analyst<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin has called for amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, reigniting fears in the West of an all-out nuclear war. But what do these theatrics really mean? Do they really bring the world closer to the brink of nuclear war, or are they just another round of empty threats aimed at meddling in the US elections? Perhaps they serve solely to deny Ukraine the green light to strike into Russia or an attempt to appease Russian propagandists who are \u201csick\u201d of their country appearing weak under Putin\u2019s ever-moving red line rhetoric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rattling the Kremlin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nuclear threats, the Kremlin\u2019s favourite fearmongering tool, have failed to inspire the level of terror intended since the start of this war. These threats have resurfaced periodically throughout the invasion, with two clear objectives: to deter the West from providing Ukraine with military aid to Ukraine and to project strength domestically, reinforcing the message that no one should dare challenge \u201calmighty\u201d Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s seemingly never-ending wait for the official green light to strike deep into Russia remains in limbo. However, weeks of back-and-forth meetings between top Western leaders, Zelensky\u2019s trip to Washington, and the upcoming meetings involving the UK, U.S., France, and Germany have clearly rattled the Kremlin. Putin\u2019s nuclear rhetoric, after all, only seems to surface when Russia is losing leverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cosmetic Amendments and Contradcitions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the Russian media attempting to portray the amendments to Russia\u2019s nuclear doctrine as \u201csignificant\u201d and \u201ca moment we have all been waiting for\u201d <\/em>(Medvedev), they are in reality little more than empty threats. While the doctrine allegedly broadens the Kremlin\u2019s potential use of nuclear weapons, most changes are cosmetic at best, offering no real impact but exposing a few of Putin\u2019s insecurities. The threats themselves are riddled with contradictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take, for example, the amendment about the \u201cpotential use of nuclear weapons if strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic missiles, or other aerial threats cross into Russian territory.\u201d On paper, it sounds serious. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, for over two years Ukraine has been striking Russian territory\u2014often with multiple drones at one time\u2014causing significant damage to key infrastructure, even reaching the Kremlin, Putin\u2019s residence. If the Kremlin truly adhered to its nuclear doctrine, a nuclear conflict should have been triggered long ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The absurdity of these amendments becomes even clearer when considering they apply to \u201cRussian\u201d territories\u2014territories that, in the Kremlin\u2019s twisted understanding of international law, include occupied regions of Ukraine, which have been illegally written into Russia\u2019s constitution. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet hundreds of Ukrainian-launched, Western-provided missiles strike these so-called \u201cRussian territories\u201d daily, meaning the war is already being waged on what Moscow claims as its own soil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, no nuclear response. Ukraine has even crossed into Russian territory, striking places like Kursk, and not a whisper of nuclear retaliation followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus, a Territorial Pawn<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another amendment reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia or Belarus as a member of the Union State. This clause signals Putin\u2019s anxiety over his relationship with Belarus and the Lukashenko regime. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a nuclear war broke out and Russia launched strikes on Ukraine, Putin would likely try to drag Belarus into the war. However, Lukashenko knows that doing so could cost him everything. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

His once-vocal stance has quieted, with a more cautious, \u201chead-down\u201d approach now in play\u2014likely due to an unspoken agreement with Kyiv to keep Belarus out of the war as long as neither side attacks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Russia, Belarus is less of an ally and more of a territorial pawn\u2014a platform for launching hybrid warfare against Ukraine. Lukashenko knows all too well that Putin will never trigger a nuclear war to save the \u201cUnion.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any Substance to These Threats?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So, is there any real substance to all this? There is so much hype and fearmongering over amendments to a doctrine that isn\u2019t even upheld now\u2014and likely never will be. This public address is hardly going to stop the West from acting as it deems necessary. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Ukrainian political commentator Vitali Portnikov notes, \u201cIf the West decides to risk nuclear conflict by backing Ukraine, it will do so based on intelligence and analytical reports,\u201d and thus, not Kremlin theatrics issued on state TV. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he also cautions that, while we can\u2019t know for certain due to the secretive nature of intelligence, if there is \u201ccredible intelligence\u201d suggesting the Kremlin might resort to nuclear weapons, we must also consider the possibility that this could be just another bluff deliberately planted by the Kremlin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the Trump campaign\u2019s rhetoric has long mirrored the fearmongering narratives of Russian propaganda, even before the recent nuclear doctrine amendments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a recent article, Trump Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. warned, \u201cNuclear war would mean the end of civilization as we know it, maybe even the end of the human species.\u201d This aligns closely with Russian propagandist Yulia Vityazeva\u2019s post: \u201cThe only survivors on the planet will be cockroaches.\u201d

The Kremlin\u2019s aim is clear: by using apocalyptic rhetoric in Western discourse, it aims to deepen fear, sow division, and weaken resolve\u2014particularly when it comes to supporting Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

At this stage, the nuclear saber-rattling is mere posturing, conveniently timed with the U.S. election cycle, when Trump and his Republican base are particularly susceptible to these kinds of narratives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s campaign is fuelled by fear, chaos, and misinformation, especially concerning U.S. support for Ukraine. The Kremlin\u2019s nuclear posturing fits neatly into that narrative, but in reality, it\u2019s just empty rhetoric\u2014blackmail designed for hybrid warfare success, not a genuine shift in the likelihood of nuclear conflict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Matt Wickham UCMC Analyst Putin has called for amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, reigniting fears in the West of an all-out nuclear war. But what do these theatrics really mean? Do they really bring the world closer to the brink of nuclear war, or are they just another round of empty threats aimed at meddling […] More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":312318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[700],"tags":[34910,34943,4928],"section":[726],"form":[31943],"yoast_head":"\nMore Empty Threats? Putin Amends Nuclear Doctrine | UACRISIS.ORG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Matt Wickham UCMC Analyst Putin has called for amendments to Russia's nuclear doctrine, reigniting fears in the West of an all-out nuclear war. 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