{"id":316874,"date":"2024-10-30T14:20:57","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T12:20:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/vybory-v-gruziyi-taktychna-peremoga-kremlya"},"modified":"2024-10-30T17:04:16","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T15:04:16","slug":"vybory-v-gruziyi-taktychna-peremoga-kremlya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/vybory-v-gruziyi-taktychna-peremoga-kremlya","title":{"rendered":"Georgian Election: The Kremlin\u2019s Tactical Victory?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Viktoriia Odusanvo<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On October 26, Georgia held its parliamentary election, with the central intrigue surrounding the contest between the ruling Georgian Dream (GD), a party that has been in power for 12 years, and the pro-European opposition. The outcome will shape the country’s foreign policy path and prospects for European integration, as the two parties aim to take distinctly different directions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Choosing between the European Union and the Kremlin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite Russia\u2019s hybrid aggression, eventually leading to the occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008, Georgia managed to secure the status of a candidate for EU membership in December 2023. Yet now, Georgia\u2019s path to the EU has been put on ice after the ruling political force, the Georgian Dream, follows a path that leads straight to the Kremlin. Brussels\u2019s original discontent emerged after the \u201cTransparency of Foreign Influence\u201d law passed by the government-controlled parliament. According to this law, organizations that receive over 20% of their finances from abroad must be registered by governmental institutions (a carbon copy of the Russian Federation\u2019s \u201cForeign Agents\u201d law). This concern was only cemented further when the Georgian Dream Party put forward plans to give the church the status of a special institution within the country and laws that could limit the rights of the LGBTQ+ community. Moreover, Georgia\u2019s ruling party has threatened to deprive opposition members of their mandates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Georgian government\u2019s recent course of policy has caused serious concern in Brussels. European leaders are questioning Georgia\u2019s ability to join the EU if the Georgian Dream Party continues its destructive course. Before the election, heads of foreign policy departments of the EU\u2019s 13 countries (Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, Danemark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, and the Czech Republic) published a statement<\/a>, indicating Georgia\u2019s EU future being cut short if the government doesn\u2019t change its\u2019 course.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The GD\u2019s \u201cshadow owner”\u2014oligarch and ex-prime minister of Georgia Bidzina Ivanishvili\u2014began accusing Western politicians of trying to engage Georgia in the Russian-Ukrainian war to open a \u201csecond frontline\u201d since this year\u2019s spring. Using the media network he controls, he started to systematically implement what can only be described as a fear-mongering campaign about the \u201cGlobal War Party,\u201d that is, by using  Western support, they want to pull Georgia into a war against Russia. A very distinct campaign built on fear borrowed straight from the Kremlin\u2019s playbook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supplying the non-sanctioned goods of dual purpose is practical proof of the Georgian government being Putin\u2019s regime subjects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tbilisi first started distancing itself from the Euro-Atlantic vector when it imposed the cutback of the defense cooperation, an initiative helped by the West. In July 2024,  30 million euros from the EU in support of Georgia\u2019s defense were reported to be frozen. Later, the US announced that the Noble Partner joint military exercises were postponed until further notice. And thus, indicatively, for the first time since 2008, there was no mention of Georgia\u2019s intention to join NATO in the Washington Summit of the Alliance declaration in July 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the Georgian government moved to consolidate its internal power by adopting anti-Western rhetoric and quietly undermining sanctions against Russia, this October\u2019s election has brought the country to a pivotal crossroads, confronting it with a dilemma that offers no path of return. The opposition\u2019s potential victory was considered to be one of the few available options to preserve the country\u2019s course for European integration and protecting the progress the Georgian people have achieved in recent years. Most of the opposition parties signed the Georgian Charter, which obliges them to cancel all laws that hinder Georgia\u2019s European integration. And thus, Moscow would have increased it\u2019s hybrid warfare pressure if the government had changed. With this not coming to fruition, a continued GD Party ruling would lead to a further deepening Georgia\u2019s division and a radicalization of protests. The price for preserving the \u201cnon-attack mode\u201d with Moscow and the energy, trade, and economic dividends, that being neighbors with Russia provides is keeping distance from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unconvincing victory<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After processing 100% of the ballots, Georgia\u2019s Central Election Commission (CEC) announced that the Georgian Dream received 53.9% of the votes, receiving the majority needed for the quorum (76 positions). The four opposition forces Coalition for Change, Unity\u2014National Movement, Strong Georgia, and Gakharia\u2014For Georgia also overcame the election threshold. According to the official calculations<\/a>, the Pro-Russian government\u2019s opponents received 37% of the votes, yet in big cities\u2014Tbilisi, Rustavi, Kutaisi, and Batumi\u2014as well as polling stations from the Georgian Diaspora abroad, the GD lost. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the trust for the Georgian CEC was ruined by several factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The violation of the election process, which could have impacted the results significantly. \u201cMy Vote\u201d, Georgian observer mission, has stated<\/a> that over 900 cases of voting process violations from 196 presents were recorded by the organization. This includes throw-ins, repeated votes, blackouts at the polling stations, physical threats on the members of the opposition commission members, and other technologies of \u201cinfluencing\u201d the results (such as buying votes and renting voters personal information) were reported. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

International observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) stated<\/a> that Georgia\u2019s elections were overshadowed by pressure and intimidation against the voters. \u201cWe continue to express deep concerns about the democratic backsliding in Georgia. The conduct of yesterday\u2019s election is unfortunately evidence to that effect\u201d, – stated<\/a> Antonio L\u00f3pez-Ist\u00fariz White, Head of the EP delegation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doubts regarding the objectivity of the official data are also founded by the significant mismatch between the final tally and the exit polls. The difference<\/a> between the official results and the two questionnaires, which were carried out at the opposition\u2019s request, was more than 10 points. By the 28th of October, all four opposition forces announced a refusal to accept the election results, announcing mass protests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Salome Zurabishvili, the President of Georgia, stated<\/a>. \u201cI do not accept this election. This election cannot be acknowledged. It would be the same as accepting Russia entering here, Georgia being subject to Russia.” According to the president, the people of Georgia have become victim of a Russian \u201cspecial operation\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow\u2019s appetites are growing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current year brought significant warming in the relationships between Moscow and Tbilisi. Despite Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze ensuring that there are no plans to renew diplomatic relationships with Moscow after the victory in the election held on the 26th of October, this circumstance does not interfere with the Kremlin\u2019s hybrid warfare operations against Georgia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A traditional motif for Russia\u2019s support of the GD is \u201cgeopolitical image\u201d. A loyal Georgian government is an important asset in the Russian geopolitical gambit in the South Caucasus, where the alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan strengthened significantly after the Second Karabakh War, and Iran is actively demonstrating ambition, that goes against the Kremlin\u2019s interests (for example, the question of the Zangezur Corridor).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

When assessing how this could affect the Russia\u2019s future military strategy, the Kremlin\u2019s interest in the current Georgian government\u2019s victory is caused by the intention to create a naval base in Abkhazia by 2025 without \u201cunnecessary noise\u201d (the Russian purpose is to \u201chide\u201d the Chernomorskiy flot (Black Sea Fleet) ships from the attacks of Ukrainian sea drones). The GD\u2019s silent agreement in the face of another blatant act of Russian aggression against the territorial integrity of Abkhazia complicates Ukraine\u2019s international legal response aspect significantly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the light of informational confrontation with the West, \u201ccementing\u201d the Ivanishvili party\u2019s power is also beneficial for Moscow. The arguments Russian propagandists used before the election were focused on discrediting the idea of building a democracy in Georgia and its potential to join the EU. Therefore, Russian propaganda converts the loss of the \u201cpro-European\u201d opposition into a narrative about \u201cthe weakness and bankruptcy\u201d of the idea of Europe in the \u201cpost-Soviet space\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, falsifications that undermine the legitimacy of the election play out in Kremlin\u2019s favor. Western leaders\u2019 criticism of the GD and opposition protests would only strengthen Tbilisi\u2019s drifting towards the Russian \u201cshores\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The election has not brought Georgia safety in its relationships with Moscow, which the Georgian Dream tried to \u201csell\u201d to its voters as Russia plans to increase its presence in the region of the South Caucasus. Therefore, the Kremlin sees the ruling political force \u201cfreezing\u201d the European course as Tbilisi\u2019s weakness. Stopping European integration is not the price a vassal can pay for relative peace at their borders, it\u2019s a prelude to Moscow restoring control over the lost \u201cimperial legacy\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Viktoriia Odusanvo On October 26, Georgia held its parliamentary election, with the central intrigue surrounding the contest between the ruling Georgian Dream (GD), a party that has been in power for 12 years, and the pro-European opposition. The outcome will shape the country’s foreign policy path and prospects for European integration, as the two parties […] More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":316875,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[700,699],"tags":[6263],"section":[726],"form":[31943],"yoast_head":"\nGeorgian Election: The Kremlin\u2019s Tactical Victory? | UACRISIS.ORG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Viktoriia Odusanvo On October 26, Georgia held its parliamentary election, with the central intrigue surrounding the contest between the ruling Georgian | Uacrisis.org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/vybory-v-gruziyi-taktychna-peremoga-kremlya\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Georgian Election: The Kremlin\u2019s Tactical Victory? 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