{"id":321050,"date":"2024-12-04T11:33:57","date_gmt":"2024-12-04T09:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=321050"},"modified":"2026-03-27T11:24:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T09:24:16","slug":"middle-east-chessboard-has-the-kremlin-been-outplayed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/middle-east-chessboard-has-the-kremlin-been-outplayed","title":{"rendered":"Middle East Chessboard: Has the Kremlin been Outplayed?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Written by Matt Wickham and Volodymyr Solovian<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For many decades Syria has served as  Russia’s geopolitical foothold in the Middle East region. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, known for his inhumane killing of civilians\u2014including the use of chemical weapons\u2014has long allowed a significant Russian presence in the country. In exchange for Moscow\u2019s military backing and guarantees of Assad\u2019s continued rule, the Syrian dictator has provided Russia with several critical strategic and military advantages. These include granting access to Tartus, Russia\u2019s only warm-water naval base in the Mediterranean, and the Latakia airbase, both are crucial for sustaining Moscow\u2019s regional influence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2015, this presence has enabled Russia to indiscriminately bomb civilian-populated areas as part of its broader strategy to crush resistance and maintain control. Assad\u2019s reliance on Moscow has also allowed the Kremlin to deploy Wagner mercenaries to bolster Assad\u2019s regime while advancing Russia\u2019s ambitions in the Middle East. This presence has also served Moscow\u2019s interests in testing and showcasing advanced weaponry, solidifying arms sales, and gaining leverage in global negotiations, particularly with the U.S. and Europe. Furthermore, Russia has exploited its United Nations Security Council veto power to prop up Assad\u2019s regime. Yet the Kremlin has consistently framed itself as a defender of sovereign regimes against Western-backed uprisings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although active hostilities in Syria subsided after early 2020, the war remains frozen. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine significantly reduced Russia’s military presence. In the spring of 2022, as its blitzkrieg collapsed, Moscow was forced to “pull out” its most combat-ready units from Syria, including the Wagner PMC. The remaining Russian contingent in Syria has become a “boarding house” for generals who demonstrated incompetence during the war with Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the Kremlin relied on the status quo, which has persisted in recent years thanks to agreements in the form of the Astana Three – the “triumvirate” of Russia, Iran, and Turkey. However, the unexpected offensive by rebel forces on November 27 caught the Kremlin off guard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Initially, Russian pro-government Telegram channels downplayed or denied the extent of government losses in Aleppo province. But when all observers realised that Assad’s forces had lost the country’s second largest city, Russian propaganda abruptly changed its rhetoric. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The primary motivation was a desire for the “extreme”. The Syrian army was the first to be blocked from Russian pro-government Telegram channels. For example, Russians began to use derogatory nicknames for their true allies, referring to Syrians as “sadiks” (a word borrowed from Arabic that means “friend,” but used as ethnophobia in Russian slang, i.e., to increase the effect of humiliating Assad’s army). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the fourth day of active hostilities, government forces were able to slow down rebels near the strategically important city of Hama, prompting Russians to moderate their criticism of the Syrian Arab Armed Forces. Instead, Kremlin ideologues chose to create an image of a “multifaceted” enemy that Russia faces in Syria. As a result, according to the Russian interpretation, NATO, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey, and even the allied Iran were all involved in the escalation. Obviously, the chosen strategy for covering the new stage of the Syrian war entails strengthening Russia’s image as a fortress surrounded by enemies among the Russian people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Syrian civil war map as of 03.12.2024<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Key Propaganda Narratives<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

1. NATO’s Alleged Gas Pipeline Goals<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Explained:<\/strong> Pro-Kremlin channels have claimed that NATO is behind the uprising in Syria, supposedly aiming to restore a gas pipeline passing through the country. They frame this pipeline as a \u201cvital lifeline\u201d for Europe\u2019s energy needs, arguing that without it\u2014and with reduced Russian gas supplies\u2014Europe will \u201ccollapse.\u201d
Verified:<\/strong> Pro-Kremlin correspondent Sergei Sreda, amplified by Soloviev Live\u2019s narrative is a classic Kremlin propaganda tactic aimed at domestic audiences. It reinforces the narrative that without Russia, the world would collapse\u2014a sentiment often echoed by officials like Dmitry Medvedev. When the West reduced its reliance on Russian fossil fuels, Medvedev predicted Europe would \u201cfreeze this winter.\u201d Three years on, energy independence has grown, and Europe has yet to \u201cfreeze.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such propaganda thrives on fear-mongering, diverting attention from Russia\u2019s own struggles. By targeting NATO as a eternal antagonist, the Kremlin manipulates public perception, framing NATO\u2019s motives as economic while ignoring the true complexities of the Syrian conflict and NATO\u2019s actual priorities, such as countering Russian expansionism and maintaining regional stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Location of Arab Gas Pipeline. Source: <\/em>https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Arab_Gas_Pipeline#\/media\/File:Arab_Gas_Pipeline.svg<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2. Blaming Ukraine and Israel for the Attack<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Explained:<\/strong> Pro-Kremlin Telegram channels claim that Ukraine directly supports terrorists in Syria, alleging that Ukrainian commanders advise rebel leaders in Western Aleppo. They also implicate Israel\u2019s Mossad as a key player.
Verified:<\/strong> The claim that \u201cThe offensive in Western Aleppo was directly planned and supervised by Ukrainian commanders advising HTS terrorist leader Al-Jolani in the Operations Room\u201d<\/em> is a classic Kremlin tactic linking Ukraine to \u201cterrorism.\u201d This narrative serves two purposes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n