When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the UN applied sanctions<\/a> on the Russian energy market. Price limits were set for a barrel of Russian oil and logistical obstacles were imposed on the oil and gas trade. In response, the Kremlin built up its shadow fleet<\/a>, which allowed the Russian economy to keep getting \u201cdoping\u201d in the form of oil and gas revenue during the three years of the full-scale war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, the Kremlin intensified its propaganda and blackmail<\/a> directed toward Western audiences, meant to cultivate the fear of a global energy crisis. In 2022-2023, one of the main narratives broadcasted into Europe by the Kremlin was the claim that Russian oil and gas have no alternatives and are the only salvation against the risk of the industrial facilities stopping their work and people freezing in winter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Gas compressor station in Ukraine<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Kremlin paints an American trail<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Kremlin actively promotes a conspiracy theory that the transit agreement was ended so that the U.S. could monopolize the UN gas market. Some \u201cexperts\u201d suggest that this is a plot that would allow Ukraine to keep receiving military aid. Thus, the narrative of America having an economic interest of its own is reinforced by accusing the Western countries of being the cause of war, instead of Russia itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In reality, ending the agreement is a logical step for Ukraine. After the start of Russia\u2019s armed aggression in 2014, Kyiv embarked on the path of rejecting Russian energy products. Since November 2015, Ukraine has purchased gas exclusively on the European market and developed its own deposits. The continued transportation of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory was, to a large extent, due to the obligations that Ukraine had to European countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The narrative of the U.S. involvement is an obvious \u201cfairy tale\u201d, especially seeing as the transit pipes\u2019 capacities being released is an economic opportunity for Ukraine specifically. For example, Volodymyr Zelenskiy in his interview<\/a> with Bloomberg considered a possibility of transporting gas from other countries. The transit pipes can also be used<\/a> to transport other compounds, such as biomethane and hydrogen, or to cover alternative needs<\/a>, such as the requirements of energy infrastructure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Alternative solutions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Another narrative that is supposed to reassure others that the situation is under control is Russia having alternative routes for transporting gas. Despite the international sanctions, Moscow is looking for potential intermediaries in future gas deals. One of the most popular candidates is Turkey, followed by Serbia and Belarus. The Kremlin\u2019s propagandists claim that Russia will be able not only to maintain the usual level of gas exports but also to increase them in the future thanks to new sales routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the assurances, increasing or even maintaining the amount of gas transportation is highly doubtful, seeing as the TurkStream has a lower transit capacity<\/a> and is already \u201cfilled to the brim\u201d by the gas that is transported from Turkey to the countries of the Balkan Peninsula and Central Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Some of the Russian propagandists are also speculating on the topic of the Nord Stream being \u201cunfrozen\u201d and being used to bypass Ukraine. As leaders of the parties that have the best chance of forming a coalition after the February elections have publicly acknowledged that the pipeline is a tool for geopolitical pressure on the EU’s largest economy, Germany making a move of this sort seems unlikely. Of course, the Kremlin has an ally in renewing Berlin\u2019s energy infrastructure dependence on Moscow in the face of the far-right political force Alternative For Germany (Alternative f\u00fcr Deutschland, AfD). However, as Christoph Halser, an analyst for the German research company Rystad Energy, points out<\/a>, at the moment Germany lacks the \u201cpolitical consensus\u201d needed to make a decision like this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe\u2019s dedication to diversifying its gas purchases is also a significant obstacle for the Kremlin. For example, in 2022 the European Commission implemented the REPowerEU<\/a> project, which is meant to stop the global dependency on Russian fossil fuels. The Russian pipeline gas imports declined<\/a> by 40% in 2021, and by 8% in 2023, with the European countries\u2019 efforts to reduce the dependence on Russian energy products continuing to grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The map of Russian gas pipelines to Europe. Source: theweek.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The man-made crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ironically, the grim scenario Russia painted for the UN if it were to refuse Russian gas happened in the pro-Russian Transnistria, which is a part of Moldova that Russia occupied in 1992. In Transnistria hot water and heating were turned off<\/a> for household consumers after the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine was stopped. Only some critical infrastructure enterprises such as hospitals had access to gas. Under these conditions, Russian propaganda rushed to accuse Ukraine, Moldova, and the EU of deliberately creating a humanitarian catastrophe to pursue their own political goals and change the occupant government in Tiraspol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pro-Russian protesters in Transnistria accuse Moldova of \u201cgenocide of the Transnistrian people\u201d after cutting off Russian gas supplies<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the active search for the culprits and \u201cfinger-pointing\u201d executed by the Russian propagandists, the situation in Transnistria was man-made chaos. Foreseeing the humanitarian crisis, the Moldovan government offered<\/a> Tiraspol its help in purchasing gas from neighboring European countries. However, this scenario was unprofitable for Moscow, as solving the problem this way would refute the Kremlin\u2019s narrative of Russian oil and gas being irreplaceable. Moreover, it would ruin the information bubble for the people of Transnistria and limit Russia\u2019s ability to manipulate Moldova\u2019s electoral and political climate.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Therefore, not only does Ukraine\u2019s decision to stop the transition of Russian gas limit Russia\u2019s capacity to finance its imperial appetites, but it also undermines Moscow\u2019s ability to interfere with other countries’ politics by using its \u201cenergy infrastructure leash\u201d. Still, the Kremlin is trying to compensate for the loss of the gas pipe as a means of corrupting political elites and influencing electoral preferences in European countries by spreading propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXf_LK4WAcRFI8tUf8X73M5AJZFnN5JMHFvzHlEUfR8uONKN4nAYtyjmXolVWJ-TmZ16gOm_zfPwGTyWwSZtThCNfanDZ3ru2lfx5nnnH8_JNWd1o9YPSMeQOm4XzNz605l1_m_n?key=8n27G92jQODoc_8F5O9FcQMR\")
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