The EU readies the biggest defense plan since the Cold War, budgeting billions of euros in security. Russia insists that Ukraine surrender large cities in four regions that Russian forces have no prospect of seizing, ISW says. Putin praises the Trump administration for \u201cpragmatism, a realistic worldview.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the region\u2019s biggest security initiative since the Cold War, the European Union is looking to unleash hundreds of billions of euros in additional financing for defense, according to people familiar with the discussions cited by Bloomberg. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhat we need in this once-in-a-generation moment is an \u2018urgency mindset\u2019 and a strategic plan to rearm Europe,\u201d Ursula von der Leyen, president of the EU Commission, said in Brussels this week after a trip to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new security architecture will start to take shape at an emergency leaders\u2019 meeting on March 6. A new defense industrial strategy is then due to be unveiled on March 19 by defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius and top diplomat Kaja Kallas. Until then, talks are frantically taking place to expand the bloc\u2019s resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Von der Leyen\u2019s defense plan will be composed of three elements. All are complex and it\u2019s unclear the extent to which they get implemented, the people said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first initiative is designed to allow for more spending by member states by loosening fiscal rules. According to some officials, this could help mobilize at least \u20ac160 billion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The talks focus on excluding defense spending from deficit calculations and could amount to between 1% and 2% of national GDP over two to four years, according to the people. Details need to be ironed out, including what qualifies as defense spending, how long this escape clause would last and whether meeting the NATO\u2019s 2% target would be a factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The second part consists of enabling spending at the EU level with a new joint instrument. This money would mainly be used to invest in common projects in fields such as air defense, long-range strike capabilities, missiles, drones and military-grade artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some senior EU officials and member states are calling for the possibility of joint borrowing, but the idea is always controversial and splits the bloc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The third piece consists of loosening investment constraints on the European Investment Bank. Currently, it\u2019s only allowed to invest in dual-use goods. A change would lead the way for additional funding from private banks as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aside from these three components, Von der Leyen has floated the idea in closed-door discussions of possibly re-purposing unspent EU funds, including money raised for recovery from the Covid pandemic, the people said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a visit to Kyiv on Monday, Von der Leyen said she will \u201cpresent a comprehensive plan on how to scale up our European arms production and defense capabilities\u201d at the upcoming EU emergency summit. \u201cUkraine will also benefit,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
European officials are working to put together a multibillion dollar package aimed at boosting collective security in the region and supporting Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. German daily newspaper Berliner Zeitung reported that Baerbock said the package could be worth some 700 billion euros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian officials directly involved in negotiations with the United States continue to insist that any peace agreement to resolve the war in Ukraine must be based on Russia\u2019s 2021 demands. They also insist on the surrender to Russia of territory that Ukrainian forces currently hold that is home to major cities and well over a million people, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on Wednesday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who recently led the Russian delegation at the February 18 US-Russian negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, claimed on February 26 that negotiations that result in freezing the current frontlines in Ukraine are impossible because the Russian Constitution stipulates that Russia\u2019s borders include all of Ukraine\u2019s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts. Russia currently does not occupy large parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts and a small part of western Luhansk Oblast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lavrov also stated that Russia will reject any peace deal that involves continued Western arms provisions to Ukraine. Lavrov is repackaging the maximalist demands Russia has long made of Ukraine using a pseudo-legal facade, despite the illegitimacy of Russian annexations of Ukrainian territory under international law. Lavrov likely attempted to justify Russia\u2019s long-standing demands by framing the Russian Constitution as a legal and hence \u201cnecessary\u201d element in future negotiations with the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia is demanding that Ukraine surrender several large cities that Russian forces do not currently occupy and have no prospect of seizing, handing over one million Ukrainians to Russia. Russia\u2019s occupation of the remainder of the four Ukrainian oblasts would include large cities such as Kherson City (pre-war population of about 275,000), Kramatorsk (147,000 people), and Zaporizhzhia City (706,000 people) \u2014 all of which remain under Ukrainian control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Russian occupation of such large population centers would significantly escalate the humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine. Russian authorities would likely employ the same tactics of oppression, displacement, and forcible assimilation against Ukrainian civilians living in these areas as they have employed against the millions of Ukrainians who have been living under Russian occupation for over three years [and for eight years before that \u2014 edit.].<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian advances have recently stalled along the frontline, and Russian forces increasingly face unsustainable vehicle and personnel losses, indicating that Russian forces will likely be unable to occupy the full extent of these oblasts through military means in any short period of time if at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lavrov\u2019s rhetoric is likely an attempt to achieve through negotiations what the Russian military cannot achieve by force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russian leader Vladimir Putin lauded the Trump administration on Thursday for its efforts to forge ties with the Kremlin. Speaking in Moscow at the annual meeting of Russia\u2019s Federal Security Service (FSB), Putin praised the new U.S. administration for \u201cpragmatism\u201d and \u201ca realistic worldview,\u201d saying that the first contacts with the new American cabinet \u201cinspired some hope.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is important that our current partners demonstrate pragmatism and a realistic worldview, and discard many stereotypes, so-called \u2018rules\u2019 and messianic, ideological clich\u00e9s of their predecessors that have caused a crisis in the entire system of international relations,\u201d Putin said in televised comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Approaches of the previous administration \u201chave begun to destroy Western society itself from within. This is evidenced by the problems in the economies of many Western countries and in their domestic politics. We see all of that. It is most vividly expressed through domestic developments in these countries,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe first contacts with the new American administration give us some hope,\u201d he said, adding that: \u201cThere is a mutual willingness to work on restoring the relations.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Earlier on Thursday, unnamed U.S. and Russian officials convened at the official residence of the U.S. consul general in Istanbul to discuss ways to strengthen diplomatic ties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The delegations met to discuss restoring diplomatic staffing in both countries, media reports said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The talks were closed for press coverage. The composition of the delegations was not made public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"