{"id":336045,"date":"2025-05-16T02:58:46","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T23:58:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/rumunskyj-tramp-sekret-uspihu-dzhordzhe-simiona-ta-ryzyky-dlya-ukrayiny"},"modified":"2025-05-16T21:50:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T18:50:10","slug":"rumunskyj-tramp-sekret-uspihu-dzhordzhe-simiona-ta-ryzyky-dlya-ukrayiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/rumunskyj-tramp-sekret-uspihu-dzhordzhe-simiona-ta-ryzyky-dlya-ukrayiny","title":{"rendered":"“Romanian Trump”: The Secret Behind George Simion\u2019s Rise and the Risks for Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
The second round of Romania\u2019s presidential election will take place on May 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The winner of the first round, George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) secured nearly 41% of the vote. His opponent in the runoff will be the mayor of Bucharest, Nicu\u0219or Dan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the eve of the vote, the Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group analyzed the main features of the current campaign and the potential risks posed to Ukraine if Simion, known for his skepticism regarding support for Kyiv, emerges victorious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Romania\u2019s 2025 Presidential Finalists: George Simion and Nicu\u0219or Dan<\/em><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
The outcome hangs in the balance<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
As recently as late February, the leading figure among Romania\u2019s right-wing camp was C\u0103lin Georgescu, who ran as an independent candidate. Georgescu achieved a surprise victory in the first round, but the Constitutional Court of Romania annulled the results over suspicions of foreign interference. He was subsequently barred from running in the new elections due to violations of campaign finance rules and other legal breaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Following Georgescu\u2019s disqualification, Simion assumed the role of the sole candidate representing right-wing forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Political commentators now consider Simion the frontrunner. He managed to consolidate Georgescu\u2019s electorate, as well as a substantial portion of the diaspora vote (60.5%). During the height of the campaign, Simion also received an endorsement from Anamaria Gavril\u0103, leader of the Youth Party (POT), which cleared the electoral threshold in last December\u2019s parliamentary elections – an alliance that further bolstered Simion\u2019s support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Romanian nationalist leaders Gheorghe Simion, Anamaria Gavrile and Kelin Georgescu (from left to right).<\/em> Source: stirilekanald.ro<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
In the second round, Simion is counting on votes from supporters of fourth-place finalist and former Prime Minister Victor Ponta. He may also gain some backing from Romania\u2019s Hungarian minority (6% of the population). Despite Simion\u2019s long-strained relationship with this community, Hungarian President Viktor Orb\u00e1n has thrown his support behind the AUR candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this context, the key question is whether Dan was able, in a short time, to convince the supporters of other candidates that he is the one capable of preventing the country from falling into the grip of right-wing populism while also breaking with the trail of government corruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the latest poll by AtlasIntel, both candidates are neck and neck heading into the second round, with 48.2% each. However, the poll does not account for diaspora votes or the \u201cshy voter\u201d factor\u2014Simion\u2019s supporters are less likely to openly state their preferences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Given the tight race, even small shifts in voter behavior could prove decisive. The suspense will likely persist until the final hour of voting, and Simion\u2019s perceived favoritism is far from certain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A hero to the far-right<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Simion\u2019s campaign strategy reflects the aesthetics of the MAGA movement. He describes his political platform as \u201cTrumpist,\u201d advocating for a reduced bureaucracy and increased defense spending. It is no surprise that commentators have dubbed him the \u201cRomanian Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The emulation of Trump is not unique to Simion – his former ally Georgescu also expressed admiration for the former U.S. president during his own campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, Simion\u2019s strategy goes beyond rhetorical imitation. His team has sought direct engagement with the White House. On April 18, 2025, a $1.5 million contract between AUR and American lobbying firm was registered with the U.S. Department of Justice. The contract aimed to arrange meetings with politicians and promote Simion in U.S. media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Following public exposure of the contract in late April, suspicions arose that the lobbying efforts may have been financed using state subsidies – a violation of Romania\u2019s political party financing laws. AUR denied the existence of the contract, and the American firm involved stated it had not taken effect. Ultimately, this investigation is unlikely to have serious consequences, particularly given AUR\u2019s ties to the Trump camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trumpism among European far-right circles appears largely opportunistic. Trump’s foreign policy is grounded in isolationism, with his attention drawn to autocracies offering economically favorable deals to the U.S. In that context, Romania and its neighbors barely register on Trump\u2019s geopolitical radar. Consequently, figures like Simion and Georgescu are not ideological allies of Trump\u2019s team but rather tools used to pressure Brussels and certain European capitals as part of the negotiations on a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Simion uses symbolism associated with Trump<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
President non grata<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Simion\u2019s position on Ukraine is ambivalent. While he condemns Russian aggression, he also opposes military aid to Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the positive side, Simion is more politically flexible than Georgescu, who was a frontrunner in the race a short time ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nonetheless, even a cursory look at Simion\u2019s campaign reveals that he continues to exploit anti-war narratives, thereby undermining public support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Simion and other AUR members have repeatedly criticized sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine, insisting that \u201cthis is not our war\u201d and th at Romania should prioritize its own interests. In February 2025, AUR MPs voted against legislation authorizing the downing of Russian drones violating Romanian airspace. Simion also recently proposed that Ukraine compensate Romania for the military assistance it has received, including the Patriot missile system – mirroring the stance of the current U.S. administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition, Simion has touched on the rights of the Romanian minority in Ukraine during his campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, Sim\u00edon adheres to the traditional agenda of Romanian nationalists, invoking alleged discrimination against ethnic Romanians, while closely mirrors Trump\u2019s rhetoric. As a result, his stance toward Ukraine remains rather inconsistent and largely contingent on the position of the U.S. administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From Ukraine\u2019s side, uncertainty remains regarding a travel ban on Simion, reportedly in effect since 2023. The ban is believed to stem from suspicions of possible collaboration with Russian intelligence services – a claim publicly made by former Moldovan Defense Minister Anatol \u0218alaru. Therefore, if Simion wins the presidency, Ukrainian diplomacy will have to start rebuilding bilateral relations from the lowest point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Simion\u2019s presidency may also strain ties between Bucharest and Chi\u0219in\u0103u – potentially destabilizing the broader region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Simion has vowed to create a Department for the Republic of Moldova under the presidency, which he plans to eventually transform into a Ministry of Reunification modeled after South Korea\u2019s unification policies. His unionist stance could damage the standing of pro-European forces in Moldova ahead of the September parliamentary elections. As a result, Ukraine risks losing a key security and EU integration partner in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Simion\u2019s presidential bid marks a turning point in Romania\u2019s political landscape. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite publicly condemning Russian aggression, Simion\u2019s continued use of anti-war rhetoric undermines public support for Ukraine. His potential victory would likely complicate Romania\u2013Ukraine relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, if Romania maintains a pro-European majority in parliament and government, there will still be room to mitigate tensions. Moreover, Simion is unlikely to openly confront Kyiv if the U.S. administration refrains from criticizing Ukraine\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finally, in assessing the security risks for Ukraine, one must also consider the potential destabilization of Moldova if Simion wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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