{"id":93855,"date":"2019-04-22T21:10:08","date_gmt":"2019-04-22T21:10:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/uacrisis.org\/?p=71698"},"modified":"2019-04-24T11:47:14","modified_gmt":"2019-04-24T08:47:14","slug":"71698-weekly-update-ukraine-13-15-21-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/71698-weekly-update-ukraine-13-15-21-april","title":{"rendered":"Three scenarios for President Zelenskyi and more \u2013 Weekly Update on Ukraine #13, 15 \u2013 21 April"},"content":{"rendered":"

Situation in the combat zone<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

While Ukraine\u2019s Joint Forces are unilaterally adhering to the \u201cEaster-time ceasefire\u201d (earlier this month Russian representatives to the Trilateral Contact Group rejected the idea of holiday-time ceasefire), Russia-backed militants violated the ceasefire 10 times on April 18 using twice the Minsk-proscribed weapons \u2013 82-mm mortars and tank-mounted weapons. Other types of weapons used against the Ukrainian troops included grenade launchers, heavy machine guns and small arms.<\/p>\n

\n

Three scenarios for President Zelenskyi<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the national exit poll showman Volodymyr Zelenskyi won the second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the exit poll data collected by the time when the polling stations closed, 73 per cent of voters cast their votes for Zelenskyi, 25,5 per cent \u2013 for Petro Poroshenko.<\/p>\n

(Alternatively: As of 14:00 Kyiv time the Central Election Commission processed 98,87 per cent of protocols, 73,19 per cent of voters cast their votes for Zelenskyi, 24,48 per cent \u2013 for Petro Poroshenko.)<\/p>\n

Both Ukrainians and the international community are anxious to know what\u2019s coming next for the country. Ukrainian media \u201cNovoe Vremya\u201d (New Time) interviewed experts to describe three possible forecasts for Volodymyr Zelenskyi\u2019s presidency. UCMC presents an abridged translated version of the text.<\/p>\n

The first and most probable scenario: weak President<\/strong><\/p>\n

The essence. <\/strong>Volodymyr Zelenskyi will not be able to set an own direction for the country to move forward and will actually stick to the present line while swinging back and forth as he goes. According to political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, no one will be really understanding the overall direction of the movement.<\/p>\n

The weakness of Zelenskyi\u2019s team will be evident at all levels \u2013Ukraine\u2019s sixth President will not be pursuing independent staffing policy. Political analyst Vitaliy Kulyk says civil servants will be appointed occasionally, even to the key posts. Financial resources will get shared by the businessmen standing close to the newly elected state head \u2013 Ihor Kolomoyskyi and his partners.<\/p>\n

The new President will not have a distinct foreign policy. <\/strong>He will not be emphasizing the country\u2019s aspirations to NATO membership in try to keep the support of the east. On the other hand, he will not dare to shut down all contacts with the Alliance.<\/p>\n

Relations with Russia\u00a0<\/strong>are unlikely to change. \u201cThe new President intends building the strategies that are neutral at their core. One should not expect the daring military rhetoric as it used to be with Poroshenko. Instead Zelenskyi will be avoiding by all means the meeting with Putin and Medvedev,\u201d Kulyk is convinced.<\/p>\n

Domestic policy <\/strong>will seea faction or a group \u201cPeople\u2019s Servant\u201d (Sluha Narodu) form already in the actual convocation of the Parliament \u2013 by autumn, that will embrace various \u201cflip-floppers\u201d. It will not be numerous enough to make important decisions but it will be voicing the President\u2019s position in the Parliament.<\/p>\n

If nothing changes and the White House keeps \u201coverseeing\u201d the official Kyiv, the economy\u00a0<\/strong>will stay unchanged. What will change is it will become less regulated, said Serhiy Fursa, a fixed income sales specialist. As long as the IMF\u2019s program is active in the country, the economy will not be facing strong shocks, while its modest growth can back off.<\/p>\n

Wrap-up. <\/strong>Under the \u201cweak President\u201d scenario, the system of government will be slightly changing from the current parliamentary-presidential republic to the parliamentary republic where the powers of the head of the state will actually shrink even more.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe problem is the expectations from Zelenskyi are way too high. In about a year there will be massive disillusionment. The window of possibility is very small and it is incredibly hard to be in time to do anything abruptly,\u201d political expert Volodymyr Fesenko said.<\/p>\n

Pessimistic scenario: chaos<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The essence. <\/strong>The newly elected President will start gripping different reforms but will succeed in neither of them. \u201cHere and there, it will be a chaotic movement everywhere at the same time and nowhere. For a country in need of reforms it will equal painful death,\u201d said Vitaliy Kulyk.<\/p>\n

The lack of achievements will make the \u201cPeople\u2019s Servant\u201d party score minimum at the elections, while the actual powers will pass to the Parliament controlled by Zelenskyi\u2019s opponents.<\/p>\n

Domestic policy. <\/strong>Due to the lack of experience President Zelenskyi risks getting trapped in red tape for months, assumes political expert Petro Oleshchuk. \u201cBureaucratic bog\u201d will come as a result. Zelenskyi\u2019s allies will start fighting for power, while the government will make use of the weakness shown by the head of state and will try to get hold of the power ahead of the parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe President\u2019s weakness will lead to disillusionment, so his results at the parliamentary elections will be modest,\u201d Oleshchuk reassures. Under such a scenario Zelenskyi should not be hoping to form the \u201cdomesticated\u201d government.<\/p>\n

Anti-presidential majority will thus emerge in Verkhovna Rada (the Ukrainian Parliament). So the political agenda in the country will get down to the confrontation between the President and the Rada. Due to the adopted impeachment law Zelenskyi will find himself on the brink of early termination of powers. He is likely to cross that line quickly.<\/p>\n

Foreign policy. <\/strong>Experts are convinced that there is a possibility, a small one but not to be ruled out, that Russia will bolster its aggression in Donbas and will get to an open offensive. The Kremlin can be stopped by external pressure only. The internal political crisis will bring the country into chaos.<\/p>\n

Oleshchuk sees the \u201cDonetsk trap\u201d as a more realistic scenario. Moscow will start blackmailing official Kyiv with escalation of hostilities in the east, offering to \u201cmake peace\u201d on its own terms.<\/p>\n

In the end Vladimir Putin will convince Zelenskyi to deploy the peacekeeping mission featuring Russian members into the occupied territory and grant the \u201crepublics\u201d autonomy. Ukrainian society will explode with rage and it will destabilize the country. Again, the outcome is impeachment.<\/p>\n

Economy<\/strong>. <\/strong>If the so-called \u201cKolomoyskyi group\u201d will start re-appropriating its assets including Privatbank, it will ruin the country\u2019s positive image with the international partners. Investment into the Ukrainian economy by the world\u2019s leading financial institutions will get to zero. \u201cEurope and the US will stop postponing (repayment),\u201d said Andriy Kolodyuk, managing partner at AVentures Capital.<\/p>\n

Under this scenario the cooperation with the IMF will stop which also means default. The government has disbursed UAH 400 billion (USD 14,9 billion) to service the state debt this year but the peak of external debt repayment is expected in 2020. The country will not cope with the load without the IMF. The analyst has based his forecast on the positive scenario of the world economy development, otherwise Ukraine is facing a catastrophe.<\/p>\n

Wrap<\/strong>–<\/strong>up<\/strong>. <\/strong>Zelenskyileavesofficeearly. Economy is headed towards the default. The situation we saw in the first weeks after the Maidan repeats \u2013 the power gets concentrated in the hands of the majority in the Rada and relative stability emerges only after a new President is elected.<\/p>\n

Positive\u00a0<\/strong>scenario<\/strong>: <\/strong>people<\/strong>\u2019<\/strong>s\u00a0<\/strong>servant<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The\u00a0<\/strong>essence<\/strong>. <\/strong>Experts do not rule out that Volodymyr Zelenskyi can turn to be an efficient and decisive reformer.<\/p>\n

Foreign policy.<\/strong>Zelenskyi will succeed in negotiating new wider support from the West in countering Russia.<\/p>\n

Domestic policy.<\/strong>Under a positive scenario the newly elected President will dissolve the Parliament in his first weeks in office.<\/p>\n

Zelenskyi will launch the scenario of \u201claws drafted by people\u201d and will get the majority of votes in the Rada already by summer.<\/p>\n

The new President then forms the loyal government engaging foreign experts trusted by the US. Basing on the legitimacy of the President the new managers hold key reforms to shine light on the shadow economy and introduce measures to increase the investment attractiveness.<\/p>\n

Kolomoyskyi and his partners will not get any \u201cincentives\u201d from the authorities and will keep contesting in court the Privatbank case decision.<\/p>\n

Economy. <\/strong>According toeconomic expert Danylo Monin,encouraged by the first achievements of the President, new investment may start flowing into the country. More than that, prices on raw materials will increase and in the third quarter of 2019 one should expect economic growth.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the Parliament introduces the exit capital tax effective 2020, economy will start growing faster. Successful anticorruption work of Zelenskyi\u2019s team will welcome foreign investment, which is favorable for the economy,\u201d the expert said.<\/p>\n

According to Fursa, Zelenskyi has a decent suggestion in his program \u2013 set up the Service for financial investigations that will take away the function of economic investigations from law enforcement. That alone will become a positive sign for business. \u201cIt will be an actual achievement that could become a breakthrough,\u201d the expert said.<\/p>\n

Wrap-up. <\/strong>Even the positive scenario does not mean that Zelenskyi will have massive support in the society.<\/p>\n

According to a recent opinion poll by the Kyiv International Institute of sociology (KMIS), the main demands that voters have for the new President are: 39,1 per cent want utility tariffs to go down, 35,5 per cent \u2013 MPs, judges and the President to be stripped off the immunity, 32,4 per cent –\u00a0 to start or speed up investigation into the most notorious corruption crimes. The President will be able to implement the second demand and only partly the third one, the first one is beyond his area of responsibility.<\/p>\n

The showman-turned-President will have to work hard to stay in office for the whole term. Zelenskyi will be emphasizing communications with people. He will keep using livestreams on social media as his fingerprint method, political analyst Fesenko is convinced. \u201cIt will be vital for him to show a few cases in which main actors will get jailed and confirm the increased welfare to stay afloat,\u201d the expert said.<\/p>\n

\n

Culture: a Ukrainian film gets selected into a competition program of the Cannes Film Festival<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201cGoing Home\u201d (\u201cEvge\u201d) film by the Ukrainian Crimean Tatar film director Nariman Aliyev was selected<\/a>\u00a0into \u201cUn Certain Regard\u201d competition program (translated from French as \u201cfrom another point of view\u201d) of the Cannes Film Festival. Last year one of the awards in this acclaimed section \u2013 to the best director, went to Ukrainian Serhiy Loznytsia for his film \u201cDonbas\u201d. \u201cGoing Home\u201d is a feature-length debut of the 26-year-old film director. In focus is Mustafa, a Crimean Tatar, his two sons move to Kyiv after Crimea was illegally annexed by Russia. After the older son, Nazim, dies, the father goes to Kyiv to bring back home the younger son, Alim, and pay last respects to Nazim in Crimea as traditions have it. The protagonists are played by Crimean Tatar film director and actor Akhtem Seitablayev and a non-professional actor Remzi Bilyalov. Film locations involve Kyiv and southern Ukraine \u2013 Mykolayiv and Kherson regions including the picturesque Arabatska Spit and the Syvash lake. \u201cEvge\u201d is produced with the financial support from the state. Nariman Aliyev is a representative of the \u201cnew wave\u201d in Ukrainian cinema, his short film \u201cWithout You\u201d (\u201cSensiz<\/a>\u201d) screened as part of the Generation section at the Berlinale in 2016.<\/p>\n

\n\t\n\t\t\"\"\t\t\n\t\t\tView Gallery<\/span>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t6 images\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\t<\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Situation in the combat zone While Ukraine\u2019s Joint Forces are unilaterally adhering to the \u201cEaster-time ceasefire\u201d (earlier this month Russian representatives to the Trilateral Contact Group rejected the idea of holiday-time ceasefire), Russia-backed militants violated the ceasefire 10 times on April 18 using twice the Minsk-proscribed weapons \u2013 82-mm mortars and tank-mounted weapons. Other types […] More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":93856,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[705,748],"tags":[],"section":[743],"form":[801],"yoast_head":"\nThree scenarios for President Zelenskyi and more \u2013 Weekly Update on Ukraine #13, 15 \u2013 21 April | UACRISIS.ORG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Situation in the combat zone While Ukraine\u2019s Joint Forces are unilaterally adhering to the \u201cEaster-time ceasefire\u201d (earlier this month Russian | Uacrisis.org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/uacrisis.org\/en\/71698-weekly-update-ukraine-13-15-21-april\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Three scenarios 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