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Day 1,050: Trump’s statement that NATO enlargement triggered Russia’s invasion of Ukraine confuses cause and effect, Ukrainian pollster says

Ukraine strikes an oil depot in Russia’s Engels that serves a military airfield used to stage attacks on Ukraine. Trump’s statement that Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO triggered Russia’s invasion twists reality, a Ukrainian pollster says. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein is to map out Ukraine’s defense capabilities through 2027. 

Ukraine strikes oil depot in Russia’s Engels that serves military airfield used to stage attacks on Ukraine

Ukraine struck overnight a Russian oil depot that serves a military airfield in the city of Engels, in Russia’s Saratov region, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Wednesday.

It reported multiple explosions and a big fire at the Kombinat Kristall oil depot, which it said provided fuel to the Engels-2 military airfield, where Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is based.

The results of the strike are being clarified, the General Staff said.

The operation was carried out by the Main Intelligence Department of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Unmanned Systems Forces and other branches of the military. 

“The strike of the oil depot creates serious logistical problems for the strategic aviation of the Russian occupiers and significantly reduces their ability to strike at peaceful Ukrainian cities and civilian objects,” the General Staff said in a statement. 

The governor of the Saratov region, Roman Busargin, said that an unspecified industrial site in Engels sustained damage from the falling drone debris that sparked a fire.

The city residents reported around 25 explosions, bursts of fire in the sky and a huge fire at the oil depot.

Trump’s statement that Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO triggered Russia’s invasion twists reality, Ukrainian pollster says

A statement by the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump that Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO triggered Russia’s invasion of the country goes counter to what opinion polls have shown, Director General of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology Volodymyr Paniotto said in a Facebook post Wednesday.  

“A statement that Ukraine’s NATO ambitions ‘provoked’ Russia into invading the country is erroneous. In reality, Ukraine’s desire to join NATO emerged in response to Russia’s aggression,” Paniotto said.   

In 2008, Ukraine formally requested a NATO Membership Action Plan, but was not offered one in view of respecting Russia’s interests, he added. Before Russia’s aggression in 2014, a majority of Ukrainians opposed the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, Paniotto said.

“Before 2014 only 15-10 per cent of Ukrainians supported Ukraine’s accession to NATO, while a majority of political candidates did not even include the statement into their programs on the grounds of a lack of it being popular,” he said. “Around 90 per cent of Ukrainians have positive views of Russia, making the prospect of NATO membership almost impossible in view of weak public support,” he added.   

According to Paniotto, before 2014, Putin enjoyed a high approval rating in Ukraine with around 60 per cent of Ukrainians saying they have a positive view of him. To compare, candidates for president in 2010, Yuliya Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych, each had an approval rating that did not exceed 30 per cent.  

“It is important to remind that Ukraine joining NATO was not even among the protestors’ demands during the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014. Also, a visibly smaller share of protesters requested Ukraine’s EU accession than that standing up for dignity and justice,” Paniotto said. 

The situation drastically changed after Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, causing public support for Ukraine’s NATO membership to rise to 48 per cent, he explained.

Speaking at a news conference Tuesday, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he sympathized with the Russian position that Ukraine should not be part of NATO. He also blamed outgoing President Joe Biden for allegedly changing the U.S. position on NATO membership for Ukraine and triggering Russia’s invasion of the country. 

Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein to map out Ukraine’s defense capabilities through 2027

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will gather at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Thursday to map out Ukraine’s defense capabilities in support of building a credible deterrent force through 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement Tuesday.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III will travel to Ramstein Air Base where he will host the 25th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) on January 9, the Pentagon said in a separate statement.

“At this milestone meeting, Secretary Austin will engage with defense ministers and senior military officials from around the world to discuss Ukraine’s immediate battlefield needs, longer-term defense requirements, and the important coordination being conducted through the capability coalitions.

“The meeting will focus on the need to ensure continued delivery of key capabilities including air defense systems, artillery munitions, and armored vehicles, as well as efforts to enhance the defense industrial base,” the message reads.

Two senior defense officials told the media on Tuesday that Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III intends to gather the Ukraine Defense Contact Group’s eight capabilities coalition leaders during the upcoming 25th meeting of the UDCG at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, in order to map out Ukraine’s defense capabilities in support of building a credible deterrent force through 2027.

The UDCG, which Austin founded in response to Russia’s unprovoked February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine, is a coalition of some 50 nations that meet regularly to discuss Ukraine’s security needs.

Within the overall UDCG, exists a coalition leadership group comprising eight capability coalitions. Each coalition represents one aspect of Ukraine’s military capabilities and is co-led by at least two separate NATO nations.

“The leaders of these coalitions will need to endorse roadmaps that articulate Ukraine’s air force, armor, artillery, de-mining, drone, integrated air and missile defense, information technology and maritime security needs and objectives through 2027. These roadmaps are intended to enable donors to plan for and support Ukraine sustainably into the future,” one of the defense officials explained.

When asked whether there was concern about the path forward for the UDCG should American support for the group decrease once the new administration takes over January 20, the officials stressed that the multilateral manner in which the UDCG and its coalitions have been constructed will help to bolster the group’s future resiliency.   

“We are very confident that the [group’s] multilateral nature, which was absolutely baked in from the start by Secretary Austin [because of] his absolute commitment to multilateral work [and] also his knowledge and respect for the capabilities of those European countries … meant that we were able to do more together with those aid capability coalitions than we could have alone,” one of the officials said. “What the future is of those coalitions … is one of the reasons why the coalition leadership group will meet at the ministerial level to lay a sound foundation for the future of those coalitions,” the official continued.

“I can’t speak for what the incoming administration will decide about its role [within the UDCG], but I’m very confident of European commitment … ability … experience and extraordinary belief in the mission, and [I’m] confident that those capability coalitions will continue one way or another,” the official added.

Further emphasizing the first official’s viewpoint, the second senior official pointed out that, though the 25th UDCG will be Austin’s last, the Defense Department is not “sunsetting” the group, and the group’s work will continue.

Since the UDCG’s founding in April 2022, the U.S., its allies and partners have committed more than USD 126 billion in security assistance to Ukraine.