Russia says it shot down 337 Ukrainian drones overnight amid a major attack. The U.S. and Ukraine meet for talks in Saudi Arabia. Russia’s mounting losses run counter to Trump’s view that Ukraine is losing war, according to The Economist.
Russia says it shot down 337 Ukrainian drones overnight amid major attack
Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday that its air defenses had shot down 337 Ukrainian drones overnight across 10 Russian regions.
Most of the drones — 126 of them — were shot down over the Kursk region, and 91 came down in the Moscow region. Other regions listed in the ministry’s statement included Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Oryol, Ryazan and Voronezh.
Ukraine’s General Staff said the military had struck a number of Russia’s strategic objects involved in facilitating the war against Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Special Operations Forces, Security Service, Main Intelligence Department of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry and other branches of the military were behind the operation, the statement reads.
The General Staff said the drones had successfully struck the Moscow oil refinery, which it said produces 11 million tons of oil a year and provides 40-50 per cent of the city’s gas and diesel needs.
It added that there were explosions near a control station in the Oryol region that manages technological processes for the Druzhba oil pipeline and is part of the system that brings oil to the Ust-Luga sea port in the Leningrad region.
Ukraine’s General Staff blamed Russian air defenses for damage to civilian infrastructure facilities.
It said: “Ukraine’s defense forces have detailed information about strategic objects involved in facilitating Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. They adhere to international humanitarian law and make all efforts to protect civilians.”
U.S., Ukraine meet for talks in Saudi Arabia
Ukrainian and U.S. officials met for talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian delegation included Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Colonel Pavlo Palisa, former commander of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade “Kholodnyi Yar” now serving as Yermak’s deputy, was also in Jeddah.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz, the U.S. national security adviser, sat down with the Ukrainian delegation.
On Tuesday, the Guardian published a column by Andriy Yermak. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
“A ceasefire in Ukraine will not come through diplomatic gestures alone. A number of conditions are crucial beforehand in order to ensure that peace – when it comes – is lasting. This includes putting political and financial pressure on Russia to raise the cost of renewed conflict.
“First, Ukraine must be given security guarantees that lend credibility to a future ceasefire agreement. Second, Europe must act decisively to strengthen and increase the sanctions against Russia. And third, Europe should take control of the frozen Russian assets to enable continued and increased support for Ukraine.
“Moscow’s decade-long aggression against Ukraine cannot be taken lightly – the leaders of Europe recognise this and we call on them at this critical time to deliver on the promising discussions in Brussels last Thursday.
“Europe’s decision to jointly borrow up to €150bn for member-state defence spending is critical. This – combined with a potential €20bn for Ukraine’s defence – will make a tangible contribution to establishing a robust defence architecture for the whole of Europe.
“Credible deterrence will help to ensure that any ceasefire has the best chances of becoming a lasting peace. Europe cannot allow a ceasefire that serves only to allow Russia to rearm, rebuild its forces and come back for more Ukrainian lands and resources.
“Yet one of the most potent tools in Europe’s arsenal is the €300bn in frozen Russian assets held in western financial institutions.
“These resources should remain under embargo, with profits used to sustain Ukraine’s financial recovery. Allowing Russia to reclaim these funds after its war of aggression would have catastrophic consequences.
“We greatly appreciate the generosity of the US and its efforts to achieve peace for Ukraine. But European unity is no less important in this process. Only together can we build a security architecture that will guarantee peace and prosperity for generations to come.”
Russia’s mounting losses run counter to Trump’s view that Ukraine is losing war, The Economist
Donald Trump appears determined to end the war in Ukraine — and on terms that are strongly in Russia’s favour. He and his vice-president have harangued Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the Oval Office, warning him that he has no leverage and that he needs a ceasefire or he will have no country left. However, the latest casualty figures tell a different story. This is a bloody war, but Russia is bleeding more than Ukraine. And it is taking almost no territory, according to the Economist. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
Start with Ukraine. Data from UAlosses, a website, show that at least 65,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. To get their numbers, researchers combed through news articles and social-media posts to compile a list of soldiers who are known to have been killed. They found another 55,000 who are missing in action, which could put the death toll at 120,000.
In September 2024 a leaked report from a Ukrainian intelligence agency suggested that at least 70,000-80,000 soldiers had died. These numbers do not include civilian deaths, on which there is strikingly little data. Many tens of thousands of civilians are believed to have been killed.
Russian deaths, however, are even higher. BBC Russia estimates that between 150,000 and 210,000 soldiers had been killed as of February. Other places have produced similar estimates. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank based in London, reckons that as of early January, at least 172,000 soldiers had died.
Mediazona and Meduza, two independent Russian media outlets, put the number between 160,000 and 165,000 by the end of 2024. They use inheritance and other records to arrive at these estimates, which are also available by week. These data suggest that Russian deaths have increased exponentially, from about 20,000 in 2022, to about 50,000 in 2023 and nearly 100,000 in 2024.
Monthly casualty estimates from Britain’s ministry of defence and war activity detected by The Economist’s tracker also suggest that the fighting has become more intense. In December a British official said that Russian casualties (including dead and wounded) were on track to reach 1m within six months.
Despite Russia’s size advantage, these numbers suggest that roughly one in 30 men between the ages of 20 and 49 has been killed or injured in the past three years.
This higher death toll in 2024 comes with strikingly little change in territory. By our calculations Russia captured only 0.57% of Ukrainian territory in 2024. At that rate it would take another 141 years for its soldiers to conquer the whole country.
Ukraine is not obviously losing this war. No matter how much pressure Mr Trump puts on Mr Zelensky, he will not be inclined to accept a Carthaginian peace that dooms his country to a chaotic and miserable future—or which leaves the door open to another invasion.