Russia changes tactics, aiming to encircle Kharkiv, according to the Guardian’s reporting. ISW explains why Putin has ordered a three-day ceasefire from May 8. Australia is delaying the transfer of aging Abrams tanks to Ukraine due to U.S. resistance.
Russia changes tactics, aiming to encircle Kharkiv, according to the Guardian’s reporting
The Russians are trying to expand a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River, in Kharkiv region. Their goal is to encircle the city of Kharkiv. These are some of the excerpts from Luke Harding’s reportage for the Guardian. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
The battle is taking place on either side of the picturesque Oskil River.
The Russians are trying to expand a slender bridgehead on the river’s right bank, near Dvorichna.
Their goal is to seize the R79 highway leading to the railway hub of Kupiansk, immediately to the south – and, after that, to encircle Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city.
“Our task is to stop them from crossing the river. We do this by firing at their logistics in the rear,” explained Serhii, an artillery captain with the 1st or “Burevii” brigade of Ukraine’s national guard.
Over the past two months, the Russians had scaled back their attempt to bring reinforcements across the Oskil, Serhii said, because of heavy losses. As soon as Russian engineering teams build pontoon bridges his battery destroys them, he added. Video shows how three Russian armoured personnel carriers were hit. They sank. Others got stuck on the bank and were finished off by kamikaze drones.
The corpses of Russians soldiers lay around. “Sometimes they collect their dead. Sometimes not. Dogs eat their remains,” Yurii – the artilleryman – said matter-of-factly.
Tactics have changed, Serhii said. The Russians had abandoned big military columns and were sending groups of infantry to the frontline on innovative forms of transport. These included armoured fighting vehicles – “three or four at a time” – motorcycles, quad bikes, golf buggies and civilian cars. “Often they take a position. We counterattack and get it back. It’s back and forth. There’s no significant advance,” he said.
In 2022 Russian troops entered Dvorichna quickly, leaving it mostly intact. After intense recent fighting it has become a wasteland. According to survivors, Russian soldiers arrived just after new year. They opened fire on the handful of civilians who were still living in the ruined town and sheltering in basements. One of them, Yevhen, said his neighbour Volodymyr was badly injured. There was no medicine. He died 10 days later of his wounds. Yevhen said he and two neighbours carried Volodymyr’s body up from a cellar but did not have time to dig a grave. They left him next to a woodshed. The trio waited until the soldiers disappeared and escaped, walking 4 miles to the Ukrainian-controlled village of Kutkivka.
Andriy Besedin, the mayor of Kupiansk, said the district was under continual fire.
About 750 residents were still living on the left bank of the Oskil, right next to the frontline, Besedin said. The Russians were 1.5 miles away. “We have told our people to leave. They refuse. They have no gas, water, communications, hospital, or communal services,” he said.
Other soldiers said they expected Moscow to launch a large summer offensive – based on a “gut feeling”, as one put it.
A drone operator with the first brigade, Alex, confirmed that the Russians were not letting up. “As soon as they see a weakness they take what they can get,” he said. “The dynamic we see now is that Russia’s advance is rather slow. But it is perceptible. If we don’t do something to counteract it they will inch forward. Our plan on a local level is to kill as many of them as possible until they have nobody to throw at us.”
The fighting for the area around Kupiansk on the left bank of the Oskil rages since September 2024. Ukraine’s key strongholds in the area are Kupiansk, Kupiansk-Vyzlovyi and Borova.
In late March, the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko said Russian forces had intensified the use of drones to drop toxic substances on Ukrainian troops. There were such recent cases in the Kupiansk direction, he added.
ISW explains why Putin has ordered three-day ceasefire from May 8
Putin is leveraging unilateral ceasefires to achieve informational and battlefield advantages in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on April 28, analyzing the Kremlin’s announcement of a ceasefire between May 8 and May 10. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced another unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine, this time in honor of a major Soviet and Russian military holiday, while continuing to reject the March 2025 US-Ukrainian 30-day general ceasefire proposal. Putin continues to refuse any ceasefire other than on terms that advantage his war effort. The Kremlin claimed that the Victory Day ceasefire demonstrates Russia’s supposed readiness for peace negotiations without preconditions to eliminate the “root causes” of the war in Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Russia is exchanging information with the United States about the Victory Day ceasefire and characterized the unilateral ceasefire as a “manifestation” of Russia’s goodwill.
The Kremlin is preparing to welcome a significant number of foreign dignitaries, including from former Soviet, Latin American, Asian, and African countries, for Russia’s Victory Day celebration, and Putin likely seeks to avoid the embarrassment of Ukrainian strikes during these celebrations.
ISW previously noted that the energy strikes ceasefire and Easter ceasefire underscored the need for the details of any future ceasefire or peace agreement to be publicly available, formally agreed to in advance by all parties, and to include robust monitoring mechanisms. Putin’s proposed Victory Day ceasefire does not include any additional monitoring mechanisms, and Russian sources will likely leverage the lack of such mechanisms to again flood the information space with unsubstantiated claims of Ukrainian ceasefire violations. Russian officials appear disinterested in establishing meaningful monitoring mechanisms or a general public basis for these ceasefires, likely because Russia benefits from weaponizing the vague and unclear conditions of the ceasefires against Ukraine.
Putin is leveraging unilateral ceasefires to achieve informational and battlefield advantages in Ukraine, counter to US President Donald Trump’s goal of using a general ceasefire as a stepping stone towards an enduring and sustainable peace agreement in Ukraine.
Putin appears to be opportunistically declaring ceasefires during major religious and military holidays in order to force Ukraine to accept the ceasefire or risk appearing intransigent to the West. Unilaterally declaring ceasefires also allows Putin to distract attention from his rejection of the March 2025 US-Ukrainian 30-day general ceasefire proposal and to maintain the illusion that he is interested in peace negotiations while keeping full control over the conditions and timing of any ceasefire agreements. Russian forces seized on the Easter ceasefire to shell and conduct reconnaissance of frontline Ukrainian positions and damaged vehicles along the frontline in preparation for future Russian assaults, and Russian forces will likely use the Victory Day ceasefire for similar preparatory efforts. Putin likely views the Victory Day ceasefire as a chance for Russian forces to rest ahead of future frontline activity in Ukraine and as a way to ensure that Ukraine does not conduct any significant long-range strikes against Russia during Victory Day celebrations.
Australia delaying transfer of aging Abrams tanks to Ukraine due to U.S. resistance
A fleet of retired M1A1 Abrams tanks the Albanese government pledged to Ukraine last year remains stuck in Australia, with defence figures in part blaming resistance from the United States for their delayed transfer, according to ABC News. The paragraphs below are quoted from the news piece.
Australia’s now retired fleet of 59 M1A1 Abrams tanks were purchased in 2007, but have never been deployed in a combat zone. They are being replaced by the newer M1A2 battle tank that boasts a 120-millimetre cannon.
Last month the ABC first reported on complications with the planned transfer of the American made tanks after US President Donald Trump placed a temporary freeze on military assistance to the war-torn nation.
Now defence figures with knowledge of the situation claim the process is facing further uncertainty because formal permission that must be given by the US before the M1A1 vehicles can be handed over to another nation has not yet been granted.
“We are starting to doubt if the Ukrainians actually want these vehicles — the tank roof is the weakest point of the Abrams and this is a drone war,” said one defence official, who requested anonymity so they could speak freely.
The ABC has also previously reported on concerns from American officials who claim the Pentagon last year cautioned Australia against donating the aging tanks because of the logistical expense and difficulties around maintaining the vehicles inside Ukraine.
In a statement, a Department of Defence spokesperson told the ABC: “Australia remains on target to meet the delivery of the M1A1 Abrams in 2025, the M1A1 export process remains ongoing.
“Defence continues to work with the Ukrainian government in line with agreed arrangements for the gifting, including on delivery and sustainment,” they said.
In October 2024, Australia said it will send 49 soon-to-be-replaced Abrams tanks to Ukraine under a USD 245 million military support package. Australia’s transfer of its aging Abrams to a “third country” has required permission from the United States under its International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).