A ceasefire with no enforcement mechanism or credible monitoring is unlikely to hold, ISW says. An exchange of 1,000 prisoners from each side is being prepared, Zelenskyi says. It would take Russia more than three decades to seize full control of Donbas, the NYT says.
Ceasefire with no enforcement mechanism, credible monitoring unlikely to hold, ISW says
A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine that has no explicit enforcement mechanisms, credible monitoring, and defined dispute resolution processes is unlikely to hold, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an update on Sunday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations across the theater throughout the second day of the May 9–11 ceasefire.
Both Ukrainian and Russian officials issued competing accusations that the other side violated the ceasefire on May 10.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces continued assaults in key directions and conducted artillery and drone strikes. Zelensky stated that Russian forces conducted more than 150 ground assaults, 100 artillery strikes, and almost 10,000 drone strikes between May 9 and 10.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched only 27 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and Parodiya drones between 0000 and 0800 local time on May 10, all of which Ukrainian forces downed.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) similarly accused Ukraine on May 10 of violating the ceasefire by conducting eight ground assaults; 676 artillery, MLRS, and mortar strikes; and 6,331 drone strikes.
Observed National Aeronautics and Space Administration Fire Information for Resource Management System (NASA FIRMS) signatures from May 10 indicate that hostilities further decreased on May 10, but that activity did not cease.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that the overall operational tempo across certain areas of the frontline continued to decrease on May 10 despite persistent tactical combat missions that violated the ceasefire.
The prevalence of mutual accusations and continued localized activity throughout the second day of the ceasefire highlights the fact that ceasefires without explicit enforcement mechanisms, credible monitoring, and defined dispute resolution processes are unlikely to hold.
In other news, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on May 8 a three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. He said in a Truth Social post that the pause will include “a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each country.”
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that the overall operational tempo across certain areas of the frontline decreased despite persistent tactical combat missions that violated the ceasefire, ISW said on May 9.
Exchange of 1,000 prisoners from each side being prepared, Zelenskyi says
A prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine that would swap 1,000 prisoners from each country is being prepared and will happen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said in a nightly address on Sunday. The U.S. has guaranteed it will happen, he added.
“Our contacts with the American side regarding guarantees are also ongoing — guarantees for the implementation of the arrangements reached recently and announced by the President of the United States,” he said.
“The prisoner exchange — 1,000 for 1,000 — is being prepared and must take place. The Americans assumed responsibility for these guarantees. Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters has handed over the lists for one thousand POWs to the Russian side. There was American mediation in reaching this arrangement on the exchange, and accordingly, we expect the American side to play an active role in ensuring it’s fulfilled,” Zelenskyi added.
Speaking at a May 9 parade, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said Ukraine refused a prisoner swap. He said Russia had sent Ukraine a respective proposal and a list of 500 Ukrainian war prisoners. “The initial response was that they needed to review the proposal more carefully—maybe not all 500, maybe 200. And then they went off the radar altogether and directly said they were not ready for the exchange,” Putin said.
The Office of the President of Ukraine denied the claims as untrue.
It would take Russia more than three decades to seize full control of Donbas, NYT says
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has sought to convince President Trump that his troops are marching toward inevitable victory in Ukraine, arguing that Kyiv should hand over the entire eastern Donbas region to avoid impending defeat.
But the situation on the battlefield tells a different story, The New York Times said on Sunday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
After making gains late last year, the Russian military has slowed to a crawl. In some parts of Ukraine, it has lost territory. At its average monthly rate of advance so far this year, it would take Russia more than three decades to seize full control of the Donbas, which the Kremlin has set as a condition for ending the war.
The slowdown may be temporary, and it is due at least in part to seasonal factors. Russian troops tend to pick up speed over the summer, aided by better weather and foliage that provides more cover from drones.
Still, Russia enters this push on the back foot. It has faced setbacks this year, including the loss of Starlink satellite internet access that helped guide its drones. The Kremlin’s throttling of the Telegram messaging app, as it tightens control over the Russian internet, has also hampered soldiers’ communications.
More broadly, Russia has yet to solve the fundamental problem of how to make big advances on a battlefield saturated with drones. The days of sending masses of troops charging through front lines in armored vehicles are mostly over.
Instead, the contest between Kyiv and Moscow is largely one of developing better drones, and better defenses against them. On certain parts of the front, Ukraine has gained the upper hand in recent months with rapid advancements in technology, production and tactics.
Drones have forced Russian troops to change their strategy. Now they try to infiltrate territory gradually with small teams of soldiers, often on foot.
“The best they can do is these infiltration tactics and the targeting of the support networks pretty far behind the line — targeting Ukrainian drone teams and logistics support,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “But it doesn’t lead to rapid gains. They are kind of stuck.”
As the war effort stalls, it is putting the Russian government under increasing economic and political strain.