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Day 1,548: will Putin’s visit to China have effect on war against Ukraine?

Ukraine announces its heightened security posture along the country’s border with Russia and Belarus. Will Putin’s visit to China have an effect on the war against Ukraine? A Ukrainian drone strike set Russia’s Syzran oil refinery on fire.

Ukraine announces heightened security posture along the country’s border with Russia, Belarus

Ukraine’s Security Service and other branches of the military are implementing enhanced security measures in the country’s five northern regions that border on Russia and Belarus, the security service said in a statement on Thursday.

The measures include large-scale preventive counterintelligence and counter-subversive activities in the regions of Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Rivne and in Volynska region. 

The Security Service said the measures were “unprecedented” in terms of the number of personnel and means involved. They are expected to deter possible aggression by Russia or Belarus. 

The work is coordinated by the Security Service’s Counterterrorism Center. The units of Ukraine’s National Police, Armed Forces, National Guard and State Border Guard Service are part of the effort.

The agencies will aim to “prevent the enemy from penetrating border areas, avert subversive and terrorist actions, sabotage and reconnaissance activities and other war crimes,” the message reads. 

The agency also announced stepped up checks and controls of individuals and properties. Passage through certain streets could be limited and residents should be ready for document checks and searches of their vehicles, the Security Service said.

In a nightly address on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said Russia could be plotting additional attacks on Ukraine “along the Belarus–Bryansk region direction,” to target “our northern regions, our Chernihiv–Kyiv direction.” He said he had discussed enhanced defenses in the area with the top military commanders. 

“Yesterday, there was rather unusual activity along sections of the Ukraine–Belarus border – on the Belarusian side,” Zelenskyi said on X on May 2, without offering specifics. He added that Ukraine was following the situation and stood ready to respond.

On May 12, Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko announced “selective mobilization” to prepare the army “for a possible war.” 

On May 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said he had tasked Ukraine’s defense forces and security agencies to prepare a plan to react to a possible threat coming from Belarus. He also said the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction will be reinforced. 

Belarus said Monday it launched joint drills with Russia to practice the use of nuclear weapons. The Russian Defense Ministry announced the maneuvers on May 19.

On Thursday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that, “as part of the nuclear forces exercise” with Belarus, “nuclear munitions were delivered to the field storage facilities of the [Russian] missile brigade’s position” in the country. It is unclear if nuclear munitions were placed in Belarus.

Will Putin’s visit to China have effect on war against Ukraine?

Soon after his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, China’s Xi Jinping hosted his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Wednesday. RFI (Radio France Internationale) breaks down the meeting. Xi said “the China-Russia relationship has entered a new stage of greater achievements and faster development.” The countries increasingly cooperate in trade, investment, energy, science, technology and culture, he added.

Putin said Russia and China were “important trading partners.” In 2025, trade between the countries reached almost 240 billion dollars, he added.

Xi and Putin signed 40 documents following their meeting in areas ranging from trade and higher education to science and technology.

Putin and Xi also signed two declarations, one on “further strengthening of comprehensive strategic coordination and deepening of good neighborly friendship and cooperation” and the other one in which they vowed to build a multipolar world order and a “new type” of international relations.

“Attempts by certain states to unilaterally manage world affairs, impose their interests on everyone, and limit the possibilities for the sovereign development of other countries, in the manner of the colonial era, have failed,” they said in a joint declaration. The two countries jointly warned against a return of the “law of the jungle” in international affairs.

The two leaders also condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense shield plans and Washington’s “irresponsible” nuclear policy. 

China and Russia mutually extended visa-free travel to the other country’s nationals until the end of 2027.  

Yet ​while speaking in unison on global security issues, the two leaders failed to reach a breakthrough that Moscow has long been seeking – ⁠a contract for a new pipeline that would enable it to more than double the amount of natural gas it sells to China, Reuters said on Wednesday.

Putin and Xi did not publicly discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine. 

“The visit will undoubtedly have very serious consequences for Ukraine, because China has been [Russia’s] top war sponsor. NATO’s 2025 summit in Washington acknowledged that China is key to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. It continues to be so,” Arthur Kharytonov, the president of the NGO Liberal-Democratic League of Ukraine told RFI.

Russia is increasingly getting supplies from China for its defense industrial base, he said.

“The share of Chinese parts in all types of weapons reaches 90 per cent. The number is huge. It actually means that each Shahed drone and missile, every type of weapon that Russia uses against Ukraine is of Chinese origin,” Kharytonov explained.  

The Chinese leader announced the expansion of relations with Russia on all levels, he added.

No signs show that U.S. Presidents Donald Trump was successful in talking Xi out of supporting Russia.  

A number of issues that are not public demonstrate China’s support to Russia’s war effort.

“For now, Putin gets everything he wants from Xi Jinping,” Kharytonov said. 

Ukraine drone strike sets Russia’s Syzran oil refinery on fire

A Ukrainian drone strike ignited a fire at the Syzran oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region on Thursday, local and Ukrainian Telegram channels said.

Governor of the Samara region, Vyacheslav Fedorishchev said a drone alert had been issued overnight and the airspace over the region was closed. He later said two people were killed in the attack, without specifying which sites had been targeted.

After verifying videos posted to social media, Astra Telegram channel said the Syzran oil refinery was on fire following the attack.

The Syzran oil refinery is one of the region’s largest, whose annual processing capacity ranges from 7 to 8.5 million ​tons ⁠of crude oil. It is part of the Rosneft company and produces gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, oil fuel and petroleum bitumen.

It was previously targeted by Ukrainian drones a number of times.