Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out, according to The Economist’s analysis. The European Parliament passes a resolution reaffirming support for Ukraine, condemning Orbán’s self-styled “peace mission”. Britain’s government will strive to play a leading role in providing Ukraine with a clear path to NATO membership, King Charles III says presenting government plans.
Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era tanks, artillery barrels are running out, according to The Economist’s analysis
Russia is able to replace its staggering losses of tanks, armoured infantry vehicles and artillery only by drawing out of storage and refurbishing stocks built up in the Soviet era, according to the analysts cited by The Economist. Up to 70 per cent of old tanks that had been taken out of storage and given a wash and brush-up “have not moved an inch since the beginning of the war.” Russian forces also cannibalize the barrels from old towed artillery and fit them to self-propelled howitzers. At current rates of attrition, Russia’s military stocks will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by the second half of next year, the article states. The paragraphs below are quoted from the piece.
For a long time, it seemed that a war of attrition between Ukraine and a Russia with five times its population could only end one way. But the much-vaunted Russian offensive against Kharkiv in the north that started in May is fizzling out. Its advances elsewhere along the line, especially in the Donbas region, have been both strategically trivial and achieved only at huge cost.
The question now is less whether Ukraine can stay in the fight and more how long can Russia maintain its current tempo of operations.
The key issue is not manpower. Russia seems able to go on finding another 25,000 or so soldiers each month to maintain numbers at the front of around 470,000, although it is paying more for them.
Production of missiles to strike Ukrainian infrastructure is also surging.
But for all the talk about Russia having become a war economy, with some 8% of its GDP devoted to military spending, it is able to replace its staggering losses of tanks, armoured infantry vehicles and artillery only by drawing out of storage and refurbishing stocks built up in the Soviet era. Huge though these stocks are, they are not infinite.
According to most intelligence estimates, after the first two years of the war Russia had lost about 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armoured vehicles.
Oryx, a Dutch open-source intelligence site, puts the number of Russian tank losses for which it has either photo or videographic evidence currently at 3,235, but suggests the actual number is “significantly higher”.
Aleksandr Golts, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, says that Vladimir Putin has the old Politburo to thank for the huge stockpiles of weapons that were built up during the cold war.
When the then defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, boasted in December 2023 that 1,530 tanks had been delivered in the course of the year, he omitted to say that nearly 85% of them, according to an assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think-tank, were not new tanks but old ones (mainly T-72s, also T-62s and even some T-55s dating from just after the second world war) that had been taken out of storage and given a wash and brush-up.
Since the invasion, about 175 reasonably modern T-90M tanks have been sent to the front line. The IISS estimates that annual production this year could be approaching 90. However, Michael Gjerstad, an analyst with the IISS, argues that most of the T-90Ms are actually upgrades of older T-90As. As those numbers dwindle, production of newly built T-90Ms this year might be no more than 28.
Another major concern is artillery-barrel production. For now, with the help of North Korea, Russia appears to have enough shells, probably about 3m this year—sufficient to outgun the Ukrainians until recently by at least 5:1 and sometimes by much more. But the downside of such high rates of fire has been the wear and tear on barrels. In some highly contested areas, the barrels of howitzers need replacing after only a few months.
Analysts cited by The Economist reckon that at current rates of attrition, Russian tank and infantry vehicle refurbishment from storage will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by the second half of next year.
Unless something changes, before the end of this year Russian forces may have to adjust their posture to one that is much more defensive, says Mr Gjerstad. It could even become apparent before the end of summer. Expect Mr Putin’s interest in agreeing a temporary ceasefire to increase.
European Parliament passes resolution reaffirming support for Ukraine, condemning Orbán’s self-styled “peace mission”
In a vote Wednesday, members of the European Parliament condemned Viktor Orbán’s misuse of EU’s rotating presidency in passing a resolution that provided a commitment by the Parliament to maintain its support for Ukraine.
The resolution passed by a vote of 495 to 137 with 47 abstentions. The European Parliament reaffirmed “its positions on the continued support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders.”
The declaration approved by the European Parliament “condemns the recent visit of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to the Russian Federation; stresses that during this visit, he did not represent the EU, and considers the visit to be a blatant violation of the EU’s Treaties and common foreign policy.”
The EU assembly deplores the fact that Hungary has abused its rotating presidency of the bloc. MEPs urged Hungary to lift its blockade of the European Peace Facility funding for Ukraine.
The EU Parliament’s resolution reaffirmed the institution’s support for Ukraine, welcomed the recently launched EU accession negotiations with Ukraine, and called for the bloc to establish a sound legal regime for the confiscation of Russian state-owned assets frozen by the EU. MEPs also condemned a recent Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital and an increasing number of Russia’s hybrid attacks against the EU and its member states.
The resolution calls on the EU Council to “maintain and extend its sanctions policy against Russia and Belarus while monitoring, reviewing and enhancing its effectiveness and impact.”
The resolution reaffirming support for Ukraine is the European Parliament’s first one after the June election. MEPs rejected a proposal to discuss the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and rising political violence. The Patriots for Europe group requested a debate on the Trump shooting and called for a resolution condemning the violence.
In response to Orbán’s actions, the European Commission and some nations said their top officials would boycott meetings in Budapest and send civil servants instead.
The EU Commission said it cannot suspend Hungary’s voting rights in the Council, but can boycott its meetings by sending lower-level officials to attend them.
Britain’s government to play leading role in providing Ukraine with clear path to NATO membership, King Charles III says presenting government plans
Britain’s new government led by Keir Starmer will strive to play a leading role in charting a clear path forward for Ukraine’s NATO membership, King Charles said, setting out Labour government’s plans and priorities in King’s Speech Wednesday.
“My Government will continue to give its full support to Ukraine and its people and it will endeavour to play a leading role in providing Ukraine with a clear path to NATO membership,” the king said.
The King’s Speech also outlined plans to “reset” the UK’s relationship with Europe and improve trade with the bloc.
“My Government will seek to reset the relationship with European partners and work to improve the United Kingdom’s trade and investment relationship with the European Union. My Ministers will seek a new security pact to strengthen cooperation on the mutual threats faced by the United Kingdom and the European Union,” King Charles III said.