On the eve of the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, Ukraine Crisis Media Center hosted a meeting of experienced diplomats who have officially represented Ukraine at the inaugurations of former American presidents.
In the first part of the discussion, experts recalled past ceremonies and explained what would distinguish the current one. Then, the participants shared their expectations of the new U.S. administration’s actions.
Valeriy Chaly, Chairman of the Board of Ukraine Crisis Media Center, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, believes that Donald Trump will be different from the 2017 version of himself.
“First, he has not forgotten that for the first time in U.S. history, a person who had a criminal conviction became president and it has remained. For him, it is something he will take very seriously. And there will be a lot of internal conflicts. The second is a very serious attitude to migration issues. This will be a major program of deportation of illegal immigrants. Polls show that among the American population, 90% of Republicans and 65% of Democrats support deportation of illegal immigrants,” he explained.
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Oleh Shamshur, official representative of Ukraine at the inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama, believes that Donald Trump has two absolute priorities. The first is to end the war in Ukraine, and the second is to end the war in the Middle East.
“He has to end these two wars in order to free his hands to solve domestic political issues and focus on the main issue of confrontation with China,” the diplomat said.
In his view, Trump is a person who puts his own political interests first. Therefore, we must get used to working with Trump as he is. He very often makes decisions under the influence of emotions, doesn’t listen to advisers, but acts contrary to their advice based on his intuition.
As for whether the newly elected president has a plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, Oleh Shamshur was cautious.
“According to polls, Ukrainians believe that Trump will come and solve all the issues, end the war. Perhaps he wants to end the war, but definitely not on our terms, and not based on our Ukrainian interests. This issue is far from important to him.
We can draw final conclusions when we see this plan either from him or from someone he will authorize to voice it,” the speaker added.
Volodymyr Yelchenko, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, official representative of Ukraine at the inauguration of U.S, President Joseph Biden, expressed a more optimistic view of the developments.
“What speaks in our favor is that, first, we cannot disappear from the news and from the world map, no matter what they say. This horror continues, and sooner or later Trump will have to do something about it. My optimism is also based on the fact that when Putin cheats Trump and his people several times, and it will definitely happen, Trump can give up on all this and start pumping Ukraine with weapons.
Volodymyr Yelchenko is surprised that the declared lend-lease mechanism has never been applied. At the same time, a new element has emerged, namely the possibility of using frozen Russian funds or at least interest on those funds.
“If we talk about Western Europe or the European Union and just pay for these weapons, Trump will certainly be interested in it. As well as big American business, the military-industrial complex, because it is production and jobs,” he continued.
It is also realistic to collapse oil prices. Trump does not hide that one of his idols is Ronald Reagan who ruined the Soviet Union, having taken advantage of the war in Afghanistan, Chornobyl, the arms race and the collapse of oil prices.
“If this happens this time, Russia will start to run out of funds. Yet, this will not mean that the war will end in a month, because all these are things of a remote effect,” Volodymyr Yelchenko noted.
Valeriy Chaly considers erroneous the Russian regime’s optimistic moods about Trump’s election. According to him, Patrushev’s statement that Trump will not support Ukraine and it will fall apart is an attempt at psychological formatting.
“This will not happen. I will refer here to my experience of working with Donald Trump, and this experience is completely positive. It was Trump who broke the wall of the embargo on lethal weapons regardless of his desire or reluctance. Besides, the Pompeo declaration emphasizing U.S. non-recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea was adopted under President Trump,” the Chairman of UCMC board recalled.
At the same time, he admitted that Europe’s position is causing more concern.
“It’s not Donald Trump who is not giving us frozen assets. It’s the Europeans who can’t make up their minds. Because they are worried that there will be courts somewhere later. Has Europe finally woken up? Does it understand that the U.S. will not give money? The U.S. will sell equipment and weapons, but the newly appointed head of the financial department of the financial White House will not give all this money,” Valeriy Chaly noted.
He considers a likely scenario when European countries will soon become the next in the war.
“They should not think that nothing like this will happen to them. Putin withdraws 150-200,000 people from the Ukrainian front, and what do you think, will he send these troops back to prisons, to socially disadvantaged villages? No, he will return them to the border with Estonia or through Belarus to the Suwałki Pass to Poland. And he continues to do what he does because he has tasted blood and sees that it is possible. Therefore, Donald Trump is important for us not only from the point of view of the level of assistance to Ukraine, but also from the point of view of world narratives. Will we and the new administration consider a return to the rules and international law or not?” Valeriy Chaly summed up.