What are the main scenarios for the development of the situation in the Middle East and how will this crisis affect the Russian-Ukrainian war? This was the topic of a regular meeting within the framework of Geopolitical Dialogues with Valeriy Chaly, a special project by the Ukraine Crisis Media Center. To discuss it, Mr. Valeriy Chaly, Chairman of the Board of the Center, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States, invited a well-known journalist, publicist, political analyst Mr. Vitaliy Portnikov and Director of the Association of Middle East Studies (AMES) Mr. Ihor Semyvolos.
Before proceeding to the discussion, the experts expressed solidarity and condolences to the dead Ukrainians, their families, and loved ones who came under another Russian terrorist air attack on different cities of Ukraine, including the capital.
“Obviously, these are the most important events for us – how to survive, protect the country and win this war,” said Mr. Valeriy Chaly.
Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the diplomat asked the guests, “Is this an escalation of regional conflicts or the beginning of World War III?”
Mr. Vitaliy Portnikov believes that this is not yet World War III, but the preconditions for it being created, but still there are opportunities to prevent it. He compared the current situation to 1938, and the behavior of the current US President Donald Trump to that of the then British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain.
Mr. Ihor Semyvolos assessed the situation as a vertical escalation between the two countries, which are exchanging missile and bomb attacks.
“So far, the rest of the countries are demonstrating varying degrees of readiness to join this conflict. And certain circumstances and signals suggest that this is possible. I think that the key moment that will determine the scope of this conflict, that is, the expansion of horizontal escalation, is Donald Trump’s decision. If Washington decides to get involved in this conflict directly, then we will see other countries getting involved in this conflict. At least, Afghanistan and Pakistan have declared their intentions to do so,” said the director of the Association of Middle East Studies.
It is difficult to predict whether this will be a long war, but even at this short stage, one cannot help but notice serious factors influencing the situation with the Russian-Ukrainian war. They can weaken Russia by strengthening Ukraine, and vice versa. And the first of these factors is oil. The Chairman of the Board of the UCMC drew attention to the fact that in the event of a sharp rise in oil prices, Russia will have additional opportunities to finance the war against Ukraine, as one third of the Russian budget is formed by oil exports.
“It is obvious that there will be a price surge. The more intense the conflict and the escalation of strikes on oil fields, bases, oil depots, refineries, the more actively risks are priced in,” said Igor Semivolos.
At the same time, the expert is convinced that if the Iranian regime faces an existential situation, it will not block the Strait of Hormuz. This will be done only when the Americans start a war against Iran.
Mr. Vitaliy Portnikov named nuclear weapons as the second factor influencing the conflict in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
“Putin never tries to be the first to do something. But he needs the international situation to change so that he can say that he is following a precedent,” the journalist explained. “He has always explained Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Crimea by saying that there was a precedent in Kosovo. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons and drops a bomb on Israel, it will give Russia an obvious opportunity to conduct the same nuclear tests on the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, I am sure that if Iran is deprived of nuclear weapons and the ability to create them, it will at least for Ukraine for the next few years delay the possibility of nuclear weapons usage in our war.”
In addition, the panelists noted the serious danger of a demographic crisis in Europe related to Iranian refugees.
“This will be a very serious problem for Europe. That’s why Europeans want it to end, because they are already seeing the first signs of this crisis affecting them. And especially France,” added Mr. Portnikov.
Among the factors that could have a positive effect for Ukraine, Mr. Ihor Semyvolos mentioned the military and technical weakening of Iran.
“We understand that Iran is now unlikely to be able to supply weapons to Russia in the near future. Since elements of the Shahed drones were supplied anyway, there will be at least a shortage of certain parts. In my opinion, the issue of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia is also being closed. Iran continues to weaken, and this is a signal to others who have been relying on Moscow that it cannot protect them,” he said.
Mr. Vitaliy Portnikov agreed with this.
“Russia is finally ceasing to be a world power, because such a state would be expected to help its allies defend their positions. And when Putin instead tells the Iranians that he can organize a meeting with Netanyahu, it looks very strange for such a “strong” ruler who claims to be equal to the United States,” the journalist explained.
Summarizing the discussion, Mr. Valeriy Chaly emphasized several points.
“Firstly, the current conflict in the Middle East has a huge impact on the Russian-Ukrainian war. Secondly, it affects the negotiating position of Russia and Ukraine, namely the weakening or strengthening of one or the other position. And thirdly, it all depends on how long this war will last,” the diplomat emphasized. “In short, a short war is beneficial to us. Besides, Iran is definitely not our friend. After they shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, killed our people, they did not pay us, did not allow us to investigate to the end. And this is despite the fact that Ukraine had long, normal relations with Iran.”