Perhaps the only tangible outcome of the May 19 phone conversation between the leaders of Russia and the U.S. was an agreement for another round of direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow. Describing his talks with Putin on Truth Social, Donald Trump announced a new venue for the delegations’ meeting – the Vatican.
The new negotiation venue quickly became one of the most discussed topics in recent days. Pope Leo XIV confirmed his readiness to host the next round of peace talks. The pontiff was supported by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Official Kyiv promptly agreed. American media, notably The Wall Street Journal, reported that the next meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations was scheduled for June at the Holy See.
However, the Kremlin’s public reaction made it clear that Putin is not willing to send a delegation to the Vatican. Specifically, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated it would be “inelegant” for two Orthodox countries to negotiate under Catholic auspices.
As things currently stand, the idea of organizing talks at the Vatican seems unlikely due to the Kremlin’s resistance. Nevertheless, the Holy See could still play a role in the diplomatic gambit surrounding the war’s resolution.
The Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group examined the Vatican’s diplomatic efforts throughout the full-scale war and assessed changes in the Kremlin’s perception of the Holy See’s mediation under the new Pope.
Paths of the Pope’s Envoy
The Vatican expressed readiness to mediate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine during Pope Francis’ papacy. In May 2023, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna, was appointed as the Pope’s peace envoy. The choice was intentional, given Zuppi’s peace mediation experience as a member of the Catholic Community of Sant’Egidio during Mozambique’s civil war from 1990 to 1992.
In summer 2023, Zuppi visited Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, and Beijing. He began his mission with a meeting with the President of Ukraine. In Moscow, Zuppi spoke with Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church, Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, and Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov. Later, the Vatican envoy personally briefed the U.S. President about his visits to the warring capitals and subsequently met with China’s second-in-command, Premier Li Qiang.
Given the interests of Washington and Beijing, expectations for the Vatican’s shuttle diplomacy initially extended beyond purely humanitarian issues. In the summer of 2023, amid sparse official commentary accompanying the papal envoy’s contacts, Russian media published several insider reports. They suggested that the Vatican offered Moscow a compromise based on Ukraine’s “peace formula,” which envisaged withdrawing occupying forces to their positions as of February 22, 2022. In exchange, Moscow allegedly could count on “its Western assets” and “guarantees for the Russian Orthodox Church to operate safely in Ukraine under Vatican protection.” However, the Kremlin showed no interest in the Vatican’s mediation regarding the war. Consequently, the Holy See effectively curtailed its active involvement, focusing instead on reuniting Ukrainian children abducted by Russia with their families. Agreements for releasing Ukrainian children became the sole yet significant legacy of Pope Francis in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Kremlin’s Interest
Why was the Kremlin willing to engage with Pope Francis’s envoy?
Firstly, organizing the return of Ukrainian children under Vatican patronage became a convenient method for the Kremlin to “rehabilitate” Russia’s leadership in the information space. Recall that in March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of illegally deporting children from Ukraine.
Secondly, Moscow sought to exploit Pope Francis’s reputation in the Global South. Meetings with Zuppi were used by Kremlin officials to fabricate a narrative of alleged readiness for peace as part of their informational confrontation with the West.
Additionally, Russia showed interest in Pope Francis’s initiatives because the former pontiff did not align himself fully with the Western position condemning Russia, instead seeking a third approach to understanding the war. Occasionally, his stance resulted in statements and actions disappointing or even irritating Ukrainians. For instance, Francis suggested that Ukrainians raise a white flag, stated that “the war involved interests beyond just the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, such as arms trade”, in 2022 he arranged for a Ukrainian and a Russian woman jointly carry the cross during the Good Friday procession. Russian propaganda leveraged such remarks and actions to support favorable narratives and globally discredit Ukrainians.
All Roads Lead to Rome
Shortly after election, Pope Leo XIV proposed the Vatican as the venue for a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. According to Italian media, this proposal was supported by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See’s Secretary of State, and Archbishop Paul Gallagher, the Vatican’s “foreign minister.” A few days before the phone conversation between the U.S. and Russian presidents, the Vatican’s mediation role was discussed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vatican officials, including Cardinal Zuppi. Most commentators agreed that discussions revolved around providing necessary infrastructure and a favorable atmosphere for dialogue.
The Vatican’s involvement may have appealed to the U.S. President for several reasons. Following the collapse of the White House’s initial strategy towards Moscow, Trump sought ways to distance himself from the war to minimize reputational damage. Additionally, involving the Vatican resonated with the “Catholic factor,” influential in MAGA discourse.
Furthermore, it is conceivable that Trump viewed the negotiations through the prism of his experience. Recall that Trump’s April 26 meeting with Zelensky at St. Peter’s Basilica facilitated constructive dialogue. Kyiv described the meeting as “symbolic,” and Trump explicitly criticized Russia for missile attacks on Ukraine for the first time.
Thus, the proposal for Vatican-based negotiations was likely deliberate. In his typical manner, Putin may have refrained from giving a definitive answer during his call with Trump, leaving his subordinates to dismiss the U.S. administration’s initiative.
May 19, 2025
Kremlin against Pope
The logic behind the Kremlin’s refusal is transparent. Firstly, Putin aims to portray current negotiations as a renewal of the so-called “Istanbul agreements” (effectively, Ukraine’s capitulation), which, according to Russian officials, were disrupted by Kyiv under Western pressure. Istanbul thus retains significant propaganda value for Russia.
Secondly, the Kremlin perceives the Vatican as “ideologically hostile.” According to Bloomberg, the Russian Orthodox Church actively opposes Vatican involvement, viewing it as a historic rival for influence in Ukraine. The informational “cross procession” against Vatican participation is led by the informal “Tsargrad” group, radical Russian Orthodox fundamentalists associated with oligarch Konstantin Malofeev. Their activities undoubtedly require Kremlin endorsement.
The Russian leadership was wary of the new Pope due to his explicit support for Ukraine and condemnation of Russian aggression, contrasting with Francis’s ambiguous stance. Unlike Francis, who never fully embraced the Western elites’ consensus on the war, Leo XIV is perceived by Moscow as a “henchman of the globalists”.
Consequently, the Vatican’s mediation potential is now even more limited than during Francis’s tenure. Moscow views Pope Leo XIV as an ideological adversary and seeks to avoid even the symbolic involvement of the Vatican in the diplomatic process.
The US president’s reaction was predictable – as in the case of Putin’s sabotage of other US initiatives, Trump ceased mentioning his own proposal once it was rejected.
Given Trump’s diplomatic turbulence and minimal peace prospects in the near term, the Holy See’s optimal choice would be to avoid direct involvement. The Vatican lacks experience in resolving deep contemporary crises. At the same time, against the backdrop of the Kremlin’s unwillingness to negotiate and the openly defiant behavior of the Russian delegation, as demonstrated in Istanbul, the Vatican risks losing the trust of at least one of the parties. This, in turn, could hinder efforts to secure the return of Ukrainian children.
Volodymyr Solovian