President Donald Trump’s interest in rare earth elements is among the central motifs of the new administration’s foreign policy. Thus, the minerals deal remained a central topic of the US relations with Ukraine in recent weeks. The tensions surrounding the agreement as part of peace negotiations eventually escalated into an unprecedented public confrontation between the leaders of the two countries in the Oval Office. As a result, the signing of the document remained up in the air.
A few days beforeTrump & Vance Clash with Zelensky at White House Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow was ready to offer Washington exploration of its deposits.
The Kremlin’s “experts” estimated the potential gains from such a deal to be $15 billion and predicted extraordinary success for both sides.
Considering Moscow’s unyielding stance when it comes to negotiations and the US’s calls for a ceasefire, Putin’s offer became a surprise not just for international observers, but for Russians as well.
Denial
At first, Russian “Z-patriots” reacted with outrage. The adepts of the so-called “SMO” (special military operation) and the idea of neo-imperial expansion condemned “playing nice” with the US. Appealing to the Russian ideological war against the global West was one of the arguments that Russian radical groups used as a part of this narrative. Putins’ proposal to give up resources in favor of “an overseas enemy” was so unpopular among Moscow’s expansion enthusiasts that some decided to “dust off” corruption accusations against authorities.
The narrative of the price Russia paid to take over a part of Ukrainian territory was an additional way to encourage a negative reaction to “rare earth metal reverence” for Trump. All Russian losses would allegedly be in vain if the US became the sole beneficiary of the war.
Also, rhetorical questions addressed to the Kremlin, such as “Is joyful trade with the US a multipolar world or not yet?” have spread among the radical channels of the Russian segment of Telegram. Zakhar Prilepin, a propagandist writer, drew attention to the fact that the Global South disappeared from Russian rhetoric immediately after the slightest chance of direct negotiations with the Western hegemon arose. “Doesn’t matter what our yellow, redskin or black “partners” think, let’s dance, the white daddy is back”, – he wrote. By the way, with this Russian propagandists practically admitted that the concept of the Global South and a multipolar world are fictional constructs created to bargain with the West. Even more, Prilepin’s post highlights the Kremlin’ disdainful attitude towards non-Western partners.
“The Great Plan”
The rhetoric around Putin’s announcement changed drastically within a couple of hours. Now the search for the “great plan” hidden within the Russian president’s words became the purpose of the Kremlin’s spokespeople. Russian media space was filled with calming messages about the benefits that rare materials agreement may bring to Russian people. In this way, the Kremlin is persuading its population that even if the war does not end with Ukraine’s capitulation and instead transitions to a “frozen ceasefire” stage, Moscow would still have the upper hand thanks to the economic agreement with the U.S.
This narrative is a continuation of the previous announcements about “workarounds” that Russia was planning to use to sabotage the ceasefire agreement. Thus, possible agreement with the US will help Russia improve its economic situation in preparation for the next war effort.
A part of Russian commenters went even further, calling Putin’s idea a genius political move that would help outplay the West. The majority of theories developed in this context revolve around political and diplomatic “contests” that would become available to Russia thanks to the rare earth metals agreement with the US. For example, some “‘experts” promote a theory about the possibility of removing sanctions or a chance to “catch” America on the hook of investments and use it to force Washington into accepting Ukrainian territories as part of Russia. At the same time, Putin’s attempt to exploit the U.S. president’s “appetite” for rare earth metals in order to provoke a split between the Euro-Atlantic ally is an obvious combination, extremely primitive in its design and implementation.
Fantasies about the possibility of putting Ukraine at a disadvantage also cause extraordinary enthusiasm among pro-Kremlin war supporters. Russians relish the thought of creating circumstances that would be dreadful for Kyiv during peace talks. Moscow propagandists’ absurd logic even entertains a scenario where exploring Russian rare earth metals deposits would somehow be counted as part of Ukraine’s “debt” to the US. This strategy looks especially audacious seeing that the analysts question Russia’s capacity to deliver the amounts of resources promised by Putin, making the “cooperation” that the Kremlin offers to the US deliberately rigged.
It is worth noting that the change in rhetoric could be related to Russian “political scientists” and “economists” noticing one of the crucial details in Putin’s speech—a remark about “new territories.” By ‘new territories,’ the Russian president refers to the temporarily occupied Ukrainian regions, which Moscow considers its own. Therefore, the aggressor country is planning to sign an agreement with the US, which would practically legalize seizing Ukrainian territories.
Therefore, Putin’s initiative to mine rare earth metals in Russia along with the US highlights the Kremlin’s level of disregard towards the norms of international law, just as most of the Russian authorities’ previous promises. Moreover, in trying to offer mining resources from the occupied territories to the American administration, Moscow is trying to split the Western community. Therefore, hidden behind Putin’s proposals regarding minerals is not profits for American companies, but an intention to cause quarrels between allies and continue external aggression.
Viktoriia Odusanvo