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What You Missed: Monitoring Russian Propaganda and Disinformation

Nuclear Blackmail Reaches Propaganda-susceptible Audience

Putin’s nuclear threats have resurfaced in Western media for the second week running, finding traction among propaganda-susceptible figures like Joe Rogan in the U.S.—those clinging to the misguided belief that appeasing a dictator preserves the “status quo” and ensures long-term stability.

Oreshnik in Main Headlines, Putin Inadvertently Debunks Own Fake Concerning the Kinzhal

The Kremlin’s Oreshnik missile once again dominated headlines, with Putin touting its supposed “monstrosity” during the Kazakhstan meeting. But why again? In short, Putin’s earlier attempts at nuclear blackmail fell flat—his sabre-rattling was increasingly met with indifference from a world growing more and more numb to his threats.

Ukrainian experts, meanwhile, remain skeptical of the Oreshnik missile’s capabilities. Despite its armmegedon-like portrayal, the missile’s primary distinguishing feature compared to others in Russia’s arsenal is its extended range—making it more of a tool to intimidate Europe than Ukraine. Weather conditions on the day of the strike only enhanced its cinematic impact, turning it into a propaganda spectacle.

It’s important to note that Russia’s Kinzhal and Iskander missiles, used almost since the start of the war, are also capable of carrying nuclear payloads (as since has been noted on mulitple occasions). This fact should somewhat diminish the effectiveness of fearmongering in the West.

By emphasizing the Oreshnik’s speed as a defining feature, Putin inadvertently casts doubt on the Kinzhal’s alleged Mach 10 capability. If the Kinzhal were truly that fast, there would be little need to spotlight the Oreshnik’s speed so dramatically. This suggests the Kinzhal may not be as fast as propaganda long claimed and therefore confirming Western experts doubts.

The threat of nuclear attacks using the Oreshnik is more of a psychological weapon aimed at Europe to weaken resolve. The nuclear threat to Ukraine is essentially no different from when the Kinzhal and Iskander were first deployed. 

Ukraine’s Parliament Falls for Nuclear Threats, Again

In Ukraine, however, parliament relocated to an undisclosed location for its session on Friday, the 29th, following repeated Russian threats—marking the second time in a week. While precaution is necessary and taking shelter in the event of a threat is vital, President Zelensky’s earlier criticism of such moves (cancelling parliaments’ work or relocating it) remains relevant. Parliament, as representatives of the people and symbols of Ukrainian resilience, cannot allow missile threats to disrupt  the work of the legislative branch of government. These threats on the  “decision-making centres” in Kyiv, so far, have amounted to little more than fuel for fear-mongering, with no strikes materializing. Parliament cancelling sessions only fuels the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail.

For over 1,000 days of full-scale war, Ukraine’s ability to adapt has been its strongest weapon against the Putin regime. Parliament’s actions send mixed signals to Ukrainians and its partners, particularly as the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian people reassure the West that these are empty nuclear threats.

Moreover, if Putin seriously planned to strike decision-making centres, it begs the question, why would he announce it? Such strikes are supposed to be conducted to catch leaders off guard, eliminate key decision-makers, and thus help one’s war plan. Warning the enemy defeats the purpose.

Syria. Has Russia Lost the Middle East?

On another front, Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine has brought about unexpected problems for its foothold in the Middle East, Syria.

On November 28, Assad flew to Moscow and sought Putin’s advice as his forces rapidly lose ground in Syria. So called rebels (or as the Kremlin is portraying – terrorists), encouraged by growing civilian support, are gaining momentum, prompting Russia to target civilians. 

With little Russian air or ground support, pro-Kremlin channels and Z-bloggers are in full meltdown mode, their frustration and blame-shifting reaching levels not seen since Ukraine reclaimed half of Kherson in 2022. 

Now, the Kremlin-backed channels blame everyone but itself for the failure—Turkey, Ukraine, the West—and even hint that “maybe” eliminating Prigozhin may have weakened its regional influence.

The Ruble’s Nosedive

Meanwhile, the ruble’s nosedive continues, with even Kremlin-linked experts conceding it’s unlikely to return to double digits. Yet Russian media barely acknowledges the economic crisis, instead focusing on the Oreshnik and the damaged inflicted on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.