Russia redeploys units to reinforce its grouping attacking into northern Sumy region, ISW says. The U.S. and EU stop cooperating over the measures to counter Russia’s practices to circumvent sanctions, German media report. The EU considers lowering the oil price cap to USD 45 per barrel to hit Russia with more measures, FT says.
Russia redeploys units to reinforce its grouping attacking into northern Sumy region, ISW says
Russia is redeploying forces from Donetsk region to Sumy region in try to simultaneously continue advances in Ukraine’s east and establish a buffer zone in northern Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a report on Monday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent demand for Russian forces to create a “buffer zone” along the Russia-Ukraine international border, in addition to Russia’s ongoing efforts to seize the remainder of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, ignores Russia’s constraints and underscores Putin’s intention to increase his territorial demands.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on May 26 that the Russian military command recently redeployed elements of the 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade to reinforce the Russian force grouping attacking into northern Sumy Oblast.
Mashovets stated that elements of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade are operating near Volodymyrivka (north of Sumy City) and in Gordeevka (just north of Volodymyrivka in Russia). Elements of the Russian 752nd Motorized Rifle Regiment have been operating in the Borova and Lyman directions since at least mid-2024.
ISW has observed elements of the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade engaged in combat in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar direction — a priority direction for the Russian military — since mid-2023 and observed reports of the brigade operating in Chasiv Yar as recently as May 6. ISW has not observed additional reports of these units operating in northern Sumy Oblast but will cover any future reports about these units.
ISW previously noted that Russian forces’ inability to penetrate Ukrainian defenses west and southwest of Chasiv Yar is undermining Russia’s ability to prepare for major offensive operations against Kostyantynivka and the wider Ukrainian fortress belt.
Redeploying forces away from Chasiv Yar suggests that the Russian military command may intend to delay its offensive operation against Kostyantynivka and supports ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russia does not currently have sufficient operational reserves to intensify offensive operations in several different directions simultaneously.
The Russian military command’s decision to redeploy units away from this effort suggests that the Russian military may try to simultaneously continue advances in Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts, however. The Russian military command may assess that Russian forces have a greater chance of significant advances in northern Sumy Oblast than near Chasiv Yar.
In other news, head of the Sumy regional military administration, Oleh Hryhorov, said Monday that Russian forces had captured four villages in Sumy region: Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka and Zhuravka.
As of May 24, Russia has occupied 62.6 square kilometers of land in Sumy region, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian OSINT project. Russian forces have consolidated positions in the area of Veselivka— Zhuravka— Novenke— Basivka and continue attempts to advance toward Bilovody. The situation around the village of Loknya continues to be difficult, the analysts added.
U.S., EU stop cooperating over measures to counter Russia’s practices to circumvent sanctions, German media report
The U.S. and EU have stopped cooperating over measures to counter Russia’s practices to circumvent sanctions, Ukrainian title European Pravda said, citing German media reports. The quotes are cited according to how they appear in an article by European Pravda.
According to Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR and WDR, a statement that such cooperation has collapsed appears in an internal report of the German foreign office filed after the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Brussels on May 20. The document says that EU Sanctions Envoy, David O’Sullivan, complained about the collapse of transatlantic coordination of efforts countering sanctions evasion.
The report says that “there is no more joint information and advocacy work” to battle Russia’s evasion of sanctions and that respective cooperation within G7 has also “lost momentum.”
The media question the prospects of U.S.-EU cooperation over future packages of sanctions. They also quote experts saying that Trump would like to do business with Russia sooner or later.
In an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung, Sergey Lagodinsky, a German MEP from the Greens party, said: “The problem is that the U.S. has been the de facto driving force behind the sanctions regime.” If the Trump administration seeks to normalize relations with Russia, “it will mean the end of the global sanctions regime,” he added.
Trade restrictions against Moscow begin to have effect. The report shows that both O’Sullivan and Daniel Markic, Director of EU’s Intelligence and Situation Centre, stressed that the sanctions are having a significant impact on the Russian economy.
The EU has also achieved some success in cutting off export routes of war-related goods to Russia through third countries, including Armenia, Serbia, Uzbekistan and India. However, blocking shipments through Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye is still problematic. China and Hong Kong continue to be the main transit points that help Russia circumvent the sanctions.
According to the report, O’Sullivan complained at a meeting in Brussels that China was “responsible for approximately 80 per cent of the evasion” but continued to deny it. However, EU companies also profit from illegal business with Russia, he added, which significantly weakens the European Commission’s position in negotiations with third countries.
At the meeting, O’Sullivan spoke of the first successes in the fight against Russia’s shadow fleet. Several states in which Russia’s tankers and cargo ships are registered have withdrawn their flags at EU’s initiative. He also called on EU countries to take “decisive action against the entire shadow fleet.” Among other things, he suggested considering measures against the ports in Türkiye, India and Malaysia frequented by the vessels.
The next set of EU sanctions will most likely target Russia’s energy and banking sectors. Only Hungary rejects these measures, once again demonstrating its “unwillingness to compromise.” The report says there are doubts whether the U.S. will cooperate on that, given recent developments.
EU considers lowering oil price cap to USD 45 per barrel to hit Russia with more measures, FT says
Brussels is seeking to hit Moscow with more substantial measures, including lowering a $60 per barrel price cap on crude oil exports to $45 per barrel, the Financial Times said, citing people briefed on initial discussions on the EU’s 18th sanctions package in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the idea has yet to convince all the EU’s 27 member states and its G7 partners. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
At a gathering of G7 finance ministers last week in Banff, rotating chair Canada suggested including explicit language on tightening the oil price cap in the joint statement. The motion was supported by the EU and its G7 members France, Germany and Italy as well as the UK, but was not included at the request of US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, according to three officials briefed on the meeting.
The final communiqué settled for language that committed G7 nations to “continue to explore all possible options, including options to maximize pressure such as further ramping up sanctions” in case no ceasefire is agreed.
Separately, EU countries which were previously reluctant to embrace the oil price cap idea, such as Hungary and Greece, are still evaluating the proposal, officials said.
In other news, Finnish Foreign Minister, Elina Valtonen has called for lowering the price cap on Russian oil to $40 per barrel.
Ukraine wants the EU to reduce the price cap on Russian oil to $30 per barrel.
