Russia will continue to expand drone strikes against Ukraine, threatening to devastate its energy infrastructure, ISW says. Ukrainian troops recapture 58 square kilometers of territory in August, Syrskyi says. Russia plans to produce thousands of pieces of weapons and equipment this year, Ukraine’s defense intelligence says.
Russia will continue to expand drone strikes against Ukraine, threatening to devastate its energy infrastructure, ISW says
Following its largest attack on Ukraine to date, Russia will likely continue to expand drone strike packages against Ukraine as long as it is able to increase its long-range strike drone production, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an update on Sunday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.
Russia launched its largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine of the war to date on the night of September 6 to 7 with 823 total projectiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 810 Shahed-type and decoy drones. (…) Russian forces also launched nine Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk Oblast and four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko reported and published footage showing that Russian forces struck Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building within Kyiv City for the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
ISW continues to assess that Russia’s ongoing large-scale strikes underscore Ukraine’s need for continued Western support for Ukraine’s interceptor drone program and for the continued supply of Western air defense systems, especially US-provided Patriot systems.
Russian drone strike packages against Ukraine will likely continue to expand as long as Russia is able to increase its long-range strike drone production. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Colonel Andriy Yusov stated on September 5 that Russia can currently produce 2,700 Shahed-type strike drones per month and an unspecified “significant” number of decoy drones. The GUR indicated in June 2025 that Russia could produce an average of 170 Shahed-type strike and decoy drones per day (about 5,100 per month) and planned to increase production to 190 drones per day (about 5,700 per month) by the end of 2025. Ukrainian officials have previously warned that Russia intends to increase its strike packages to include over 1,000 drones per day in Fall 2025, and Russia’s use of over 800 drones in the September 6 to 7 strike package is a significant increase toward this goal.
More frequent larger-scale Russian strikes will threaten to devastate Ukraine’s electrical grid and energy infrastructure ahead of and during the coming winter season.
Russia is continuing to expand its long-range strike drone production in part due to support from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Russia has significantly scaled up its domestic production of Shahed-type drones, including Gerans (Russian Shahed analogues), Garpiyas (Shahed analogues with PRC components), and Gerberas (decoy Shahed variants).
Russia has recently significantly invested in developing the Alabuga Special Economic Zone’s (ASEZ) drone factory; supporting the plant’s infrastructure; and recruiting women, children, and foreigners to work at the ASEZ.
Russia is increasingly relying on the PRC for its drone components and would not be able to sustain the pace or mass of its Shahed-type drone production without these components. A recent investigation by the Ukraine-based, open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight found that the ASEZ alone depends on the PRC for at least 41 components to produce its long-range strike drones, including engines, electronic and mechanical components, batteries, antennas, radios, carbon fire, carburetors, and telecommunications components. Frontelligence Insight assessed that many of the drones that Russia claims to have produced domestically are only assembled domestically given the high number of PRC-produced parts in these drones. Russia also opened a dedicated logistics center at the ASEZ to receive and process cargo trains directly from the PRC, likely to streamline the delivery of PRC-produced components for drone production at the ASEZ.
Russia’s latest strikes against Ukraine further demonstrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is disinterested in ending his war in Ukraine and stopping the killing. Russia has consistently intensified its strike packages and capabilities since the beginning of its full-scale invasion in 2022 and has notably accelerated its strikes campaign following the Ukraine-Russia bilateral talks in Istanbul on May 15, 2025, launching 16 combined strikes consisting of over 400 air targets since the talks. Russia’s September 6 to 7 strike is the fifth combined strike of over 500 drones and missiles since the August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska. Putin has repeatedly rejected Ukrainian and US efforts to establish ceasefires on the battlefield and continues to insist that Russia cannot agree to a ceasefire until there is a peace agreement. Putin has also made no effort to prepare Russian society or the Russian information space for an end to the war that results in less than Ukrainian capitulation to all of Russia’s original war demands.
Ukrainian troops recapture 58 square kilometers of territory in August, Syrskyi says
The month of August proved to be difficult for Ukrainian troops fighting on the frontlines, but at the same time they conducted a number of efficient defensive and offensive operations. Russia aimed for a strategic advantage, yet its gains were minimal, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a post to social media Monday after a meeting that summed up the Ukrainian army’s performance in August.
Ukrainian troops prioritized holding back advancing Russian forces and inflicting major losses on them. The Ukrainian army has stabilized the situation in the most endangered sections of the frontline, including in the Lyman, Dobropillya, Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions.
Ukraine has recaptured land from Russia. Ukrainian troops shielded the cities from the enemy’s missile and drone attacks, and conducted strikes deep into Russia, Syrskyi said.
In August, Russia aimed at gaining a strategic advantage, breaking through Ukrainian defenses and encircling Ukrainian troops near the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. It also planned large-scale offensive operations in the Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia directions. Ukrainian troops prevented these plans from succeeding. Russian forces had to postpone an offensive in Zaporizhzhia region and redeployed its naval infantry units to Donetsk region.
“A month when [Russian forces] made most efforts and hoped to achieve breakthroughs actually became a month of the smallest territorial gains in recent time,” Syrskyi said.
In the Dobropillya direction, Russian forces captured 13.5 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian troops recaptured 25.5 square kilometers in the area. In the Pokrovsk direction, Russia seized 5 square kilometers and Ukraine recaptured 26 square kilometers of land. Ukraine lost no territory in the Hulyaypole and Prydniprovskyi directions. Ukrainian troops regained control of 4 square kilometers in the Pivnichno-Slobozhanskyi direction.
Russian forces continue to use the tactics of creeping advances, operating in small infantry groups that infiltrate behind Ukrainian lines, avoiding direct combat engagements.
In August, Ukrainian troops regained control of 58 square kilometers and recaptured a number of towns and villages. Ukraine’s deep strikes hit 60 sites inside Russia, weakening its capacity to produce fuel for the military, affecting its stocks of aerial bombs, missiles, drones and air defenses, and disrupting its transportation system. Ukrainian drones hit more than 67,000 sites last month. The effectiveness of drone strikes that hit mid-range targets, increased by 25 per cent.
Russia lost 28,790 troops in August. Since early this year, 297,350 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.
Russia plans to produce thousands of pieces of weapons and equipment this year, Ukraine’s defense intelligence says
Russia plans to produce thousands of pieces of weapons and equipment this year, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Department of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told Ukrinform in an interview published on Sunday.
The weapons include 57 Su-57, Su-35, Su-34 and Su-30 modernized aircraft, almost 250 T-90M tanks, around 1,100 new BTR-3 and BTR-82А armored personal carriers, and 365 new artillery systems.
Russia also plans to modernize thousands of pieces of weapons and equipment, Skibitskyi said.
It is ramping up the production of missiles and drones, including FPV drones that have proved effective on the battlefield. “[Russia] plans to produce almost 2,500 precision missiles of various classes, including Iskander cruise and ballistic missiles, and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. Russia intends to ramp up production. We also noted a considerable production increase of Geran and Garpia [attack] drones as well as FPV drones,” Skibitskyi said.
Ukraine’s military intelligence has seen Russia’s 10-year armament plan, covering the years 2026 through 2037, he added.
“The Russians clearly outlined main targets they set for the military industrial complex to produce heavy equipment, combat ships, aircraft and missile systems. We know that they will be developing their strategic and long-range aircraft,” Skibitskyi said.
Russia’s defense ministry chose three key combat tanks. The industry will not be producing a wide range of tanks anymore.
“Main combat tanks will be T-90, Armata and T-80. [It will also manufacture] the newest artillery systems, including the Coalitsiya, various types of the Msta, as well as the Malva, Giatsynt and Magnolia systems. They will integrate these weapons systems into production based on their use on the battlefield. [They plan] a wide range of strategic and tactical level missiles. Moscow plans new long-range missiles and up-to-date hypersonic anti-ship missiles. They chart three ways in which to improve the missile systems: by increasing their range, precision and warhead. They need a certain missile range to strike the Ukrainian territory and a longer one as they prepare for a war with NATO countries by 2030. That’s what they base their armament program on,” Skibitskyi said.
Russia is prioritizing the use of FPV drones and artificial intelligence. It aims to increase the share of unmanned aerial and ground systems on the battlefield to 40 per cent.
“We are recording a sharp increase in the number of drones that the Russian Federation is launching at our territory. Not only the military, but also our civilians, our society feels that,” he said.
Russia will not set aside artillery systems and heavy armored vehicles as both are part of the classic warfare, he added.
