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Weekly roundup. Ukraine resists Russia’s invasion. Days 1,412-1,416

This week, intense battles continued to rage along the front lines. Russia continued to pummel Ukrainian cities and towns deep in the rear with missiles and drones.

On Monday alone, an overnight Russian drone strike on a private hospital in Kyiv killed one patient and injured four others. A daytime drone attack on Dnipro damaged an enterprise owned by U.S. agricultural producer Bunge, causing a leak of 300 tons of sunflower oil. Russia also launched five ballistic missiles at an energy facility in Kharkiv’s Slobidskyi district.

In December, Russia used fewer drones in combined missile and drone attacks on Ukraine than the previous month. At the same time, the efficacy of such strikes has increased, according to the analysis by Ukrainian news outlet Novynarnya based on official data. The situation is further complicated by low temperatures and heavy snowfall.

A Russian drone and missile attack plunged the regions of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia into near-total blackout overnight on Wednesday. In Zaporizhzhia region, power was largely restored on Thursday morning. The situation in the region of Dnipro is more dire. As of Thursday evening, power was restored to 694,000 households, while 194,000 others were still without electricity, including consumers in the city of Kryvyi Rih.

On Tuesday, the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Paris signed a declaration outlining postwar security guarantees for Ukraine. The UK, France and Ukraine also signed a declaration of intent on deploying troops in Ukraine if a peace deal is made. Russia responded by warning that it would consider the presence of any Western military forces deployed to Ukraine under a post-war security arrangement a “legitimate military target.” 

Details of American participation in the multinational force for Ukraine in the event of renewed Russian aggression were removed from an earlier draft of the Paris declaration issued by the Coalition of the Willing. 

Russia may attack NATO earlier than 2029, ISW says. U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said President Donald Trump had “greenlit” a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill.

U.S. Embassy warns of potential air attack on Ukraine without mentioning Russia by name.

The U.S. embassy in Kyiv warned on Thursday that a “potentially significant air attack” could occur at any time within the next several days. “The embassy, as always, recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced,” it said.

Ukrainian media noted that the warning did not mention that Russia would be responsible. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi echoed the warning in his evening address, telling Ukrainians that “there may be another massive Russian attack” during the night.