U.S. commitments to support a multinational force for Ukraine if Russia attacks again were removed from the Paris declaration. Russia may attack NATO earlier than 2029, ISW says. Russia launched fewer drones and missiles at Ukraine in December than the previous month, hit more targets.
U.S. commitments to support multinational force for Ukraine if Russia attacks again removed from Paris declaration
Details of American participation in the multinational force for Ukraine in the event of renewed Russian aggression were removed from an earlier draft of the Paris declaration issued by the Coalition of the Willing, Ukrainian news site European Pravda said on Wednesday.
That version, also seen by Politico, had stipulated the U.S. would commit to “support the force if it is attacked” and assist with intelligence and logistics.
The U.S. is not a formal signatory to the document, European Pravda said.
“The French president’s office recalled that the United States is not a formal party to the Paris Declaration, adopted on 6 January. An Élysée Palace official said on condition of anonymity that the relevant statement of the Coalition of the Willing had been approved by coalition members and discussed in detail with the United States,” the article reads.
The declaration states, “We confirmed that these reassurance measures should be strictly implemented at Ukraine’s request once a credible cessation of hostilities has taken place. These elements will be European-led, with the involvement also of non-European members of the Coalition, and the proposed support of the US.”
The nations that have committed to supporting Ukraine also agreed to “establish a US/Ukraine/Coalition coordination cell at the Coalition Operational Headquarters in Paris.”
Speaking after a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in Paris on Tuesday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the declaration is accompanied by draft documents detailing specific actions and the roles of individual countries. Poland will be the “leading country when it comes to logistical and organizational matters,” he added, according to TVP World.
In an interview with France 2 TV aired Tuesday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron said he’s preparing some sort of contact with Putin in the coming weeks, according to Bloomberg News.
Russia may attack NATO earlier than 2029, ISW says
Western outlets reported in late December 2025 and early January 2026 that a German military document states that Russia is intensifying its covert attacks on key German infrastructure, likely as possible preparation for a wider conflict, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an update on Tuesday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.
A German military document reportedly describes how Russia is using covert attacks against German infrastructure to prepare for a potential Russia-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) war in the future, in line with ISW’s ongoing assessments.
The document presents an assessment that Russia will develop these capabilities and “strategic options” by 2029 at the latest, even if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues unchanged. ISW continues to assess that Russia would likely be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many Western estimates, particularly in the event of a future ceasefire in Ukraine that would free up Russian forces and allow Russia to rearm and reconstitute.
Russian covert attacks against German infrastructure are likely a line of effort within Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.
Russia is intensifying covert attacks on key infrastructure in Germany in a campaign of hybrid warfare that Berlin views as a possible prelude to a wider conflict, according to a military document obtained by Bloomberg.
The defense ministry plan — which was first reported by Politico and Welt newspaper — cited national and foreign intelligence that suggested Russia is seeking to develop capabilities and strategic options to wage and survive a large-scale war against NATO, Bloomberg News said on Monday.
“Even if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues unchanged, it is expected that Russia will have developed these capabilities and strategic options by 2029 at the latest,” according to the document.
Germany’s military planners are warning that recent cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation campaigns could be the opening salvo in a new war, Politico said on December 30, citing a confidential government document seen by the journalists.
The 24-page document is classified as a so-called light version of the plan, which aims to coordinate civilian and military actors to define Germany’s role as a transit hub for allied forces.
Russia launched fewer drones, missiles at Ukraine in December than previous month, hit more targets
Russia used fewer drones in combined missile and drone attacks on Ukraine than the previous month. At the same time, the efficacy of such strikes has increased, Ukrainian news outlet Novynarnya said on January 1, relying on daily updates issued by the Ukrainian Air Force throughout last month.
In December 2025, Russia carried out major drone attacks on Ukraine every day. A similar pattern was recorded between January and March, and between June and November last year. Only in April and May 2025 there were nights with no drone attacks.
In December, Russia fired a total of 5,207 projectiles at Ukraine during night-time attacks, including 5,031 drones of the Shahed, Gerbera and other types, and 176 missiles.
Ukraine’s air defenses shot down or otherwise neutralized 4,257 aerial targets, including 4,144 drones and 113 missiles.
Some 869 drones and 48 missiles, 917 projectiles in total, hit target in 420 locations, while drone and missile debris fell in 44 sites, the Ukrainian Air Force said.
Russia decreased its daily use of drones and the use of missiles in major attacks throughout December. At the same time, the figures show the rising accuracy of Russian airstrikes, Novynarnya concluded.
The news site also lists the days in December when Russia attacked Ukraine with the largest number of drones and missiles launched in a single barrage.
On December 6, the Ukrainian Armed Forces Day, Russia launched 704 projectiles at Ukraine, including 653 drones and 51 missiles. On December 23, it fired a total of 673 aerial targets at the country, including 635 drones and 38 missiles. On December 27, it launched 559 projectiles at Ukraine, including 519 drones and 40 missiles. On December 13, Russia fired a total of 495 aerial targets at Ukraine, using 465 drones and 30 missiles.