Day 789: will resumed U.S. assistance allow Ukraine to blunt current Russian offensive? ISW’s analysis

A bipartisan delegation of U.S. Congress members arrives in Kyiv. Will the resumed U.S. assistance allow Ukraine to blunt the current Russian offensive? Around 20,000-25,000 Russian troops are trying to storm Chasiv Yar and nearby towns, according to a Ukrainian army spokesperson.

Bipartisan U.S. Congress delegation arrives in Kyiv

A bipartisan delegation of U.S. Congress members came to Kyiv on Monday, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said on X. 

The delegation consists of four House members: Republicans Thomas Kean and Nathaniel Moran, along with Democrats Bill Keating and Madeleine Dean. 

The visit is “another reminder that our commitment to Ukraine is unwavering,” the U.S. Embassy said. 

The U.S. House of Representatives on Saturday approved USD 60.8 billion in aid for Ukraine after months of stalling. The Senate is expected to approve the legislation this week before it’s passed to President Joe Biden to sign it into law.

Will resumed U.S. assistance allow Ukraine to blunt current Russian offensive? ISW’s analysis

The delivery of U.S. military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed U.S. assistance arrives promptly, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment of the war.

US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, will be in transit to Ukraine “by the end of the week” if the Senate passes the supplemental appropriations bill on April 23 and US President Joe Biden signs it by April 24. Warner emphasized the extensive battlefield impact that Ukrainian forces have achieved using US-provided military assistance, stating that Ukrainian forces have been able to destroy “87 percent of Russian pre-existing ground forces” (potentially in reference to Russia’s pre-full-scale invasion professional force), 67 percent of Russian tanks, and 32 percent of Russian armored personnel carriers (APCs) for the past two years with less than 3 percent of the US defense budget and military aid from the US and Europe.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 21 that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilize the frontline and seize the initiative. Zelensky stated during an interview with NBC News that US military support gives Ukraine a chance at victory but warned that Ukrainian battlefield progress will depend on how fast military aid arrives on the frontlines. Zelensky noted that delays in the delivery of military assistance have already contributed to Ukrainian materiel and personnel losses in “several directions.” Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian military is especially anticipating the deliveries of air defense and long-range weapon systems since Ukrainian forces currently lack significant long-range capabilities to prevent Ukrainian casualties on the frontlines. 

ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces may suffer additional setbacks in the coming weeks while waiting for US security assistance that will allow Ukraine to stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed US assistance arrives promptly. Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian materiel constraints.

Around 20,000-25,000 Russian troops trying to storm Chasiv Yar, nearby towns, according to Ukrainian army spokesperson 

Russia has a force of 20,000-25,000 troops trying to storm the town of Chasiv Yar, in Donetsk region and surrounding villages, Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational-strategic group told Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne. 

“On the front line across from Chasiv Yar, Russian paratroopers of the 217th Guards Parachute Regiment and the 98th Guards Airborne Division are fighting against us. Around 20,000-25,000 Russian troops are trying to storm Chasiv Yar and the outskirts of nearby towns and villages,” Voloshyn said. 

Russia does not stop the attempts to seize control of the town, disregarding the losses in manpower and weapons, he added.

“Russian forces are not inside the town. We have full control of the town. The situation around the town is difficult but controlled. Our troops are receiving reinforcement and stabilizing the line,” Voloshyn said.   

Russia is constantly sending troops to storm the Ukrainian positions. They do not succeed in securing positions and step back, he added. “They are storming the positions without securing them. They storm and return back. This is how the enemy is carrying out reconnaissance, searching for a weak spot to strike at. But the [Ukrainian] defense forces are launching devastating attacks [against them],” the spokesperson said.

Analyzing Allies’ Response: Israel Defended, Ukraine Left Vulnerable. Ukraine in Flames #601

President Volodymyr Zelenskyi emphasized that the countries of the free world can protect Ukraine from Russian terror by providing the same protection as to Israel, which is not a member of NATO. By defending Israel, the free world demonstrated that this kind of unity is not only possible, but also 100% effective. The decisive actions of the allies prevented the success of terror, the loss of infrastructure and forced the aggressor to cool down. And for this, activation of the 5th article is not required, only political will is enough. Watch Ukraine in flames #601 to find out about the defense of Israel by allies from Iran’s shelling and explore why Ukraine was not aided in a similar manner.


  • Yevhen Mahda, PhD, Associate professor at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Executive Director at the Institute of World Policy
  • Andriy Bondar, Ukrainian writer, translator and publicist
  • Volodymyr Tsybulko, Ukrainian political expert, writer and translator