Written by Matt Wickham, UCMC/HWAG analyst
On July 8, Kyiv witnessed its deadliest aerial attack since the early months of the full-scale invasion as Russia targeted hospitals in the capital. The attack involved at least 36 missiles (with some reports citing 44) of various types. “Okhmatdyt” Children’s Hospital was just one of several targets.
As with all significant events in Russia’s war on Ukraine, we are confronted with a whirlwind of narratives, disinformation campaigns, and false information spread through Russian media and Telegram channels in an attempt to control the narrative and deceive public opinion. These heinous moments throughout this war give our analysts the chance to identify trends and refute these narratives as they make their way into the global media.
In this digest, we addressed and debunked several false narratives and reactions observed during and in the hours after the strikes. These include:
Russia Bipolar Narratives:
- Extreme Joy of the News and Pictures of Destruction
- Fear-mongering that it will only get worse for Ukraine
- A Ukrainian “False Flag Op” before the NATO Summit” (shifting the blame to the Ukrainian Air Defenсe Forces)
- “It wasn’t our missile, it was Ukraine’s”. It was NASAMS/Patriot
But first, for those still questioning “what happened to Ukraine’s air defence” and “where was our Patriot”, here’s a few things to consider…
MIM-104 Patriot has, up until now, kept Kyiv safe even from the most deadly and technologically advanced hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal).
So what happened? How did several missiles penetrate Kyiv in succession without what looked like much resistance?
In an interview with Radio NV, Ukrainian military expert Andrei Kramarov explained that the low altitude of the missile trajectories was only one of many factors complicating the intercept. The Kh-101 (the missile in question), along with other calibre missiles, can execute up to 80 turns on their flight paths, designed to confuse defense systems as the missiles change trajectory. With three missile waves heading towards the capital at one time, from all directions, due to the free trajectory of the missiles, it simply overwhelmed Ukraine’s air defences. The systems were forced to prioritize targets they and their operators considered the most dangerous, and thus, a penetration of Ukraine’s defence.
Additionally, Russia’s use of a diverse range of missile types, including nearly all in its arsenal, such as the old missiles from the Brezhnev era (notably the Kh-22, known for their significant inaccuracy with a circular error probable (CEP) in the hundreds of meters), further added to the complexity of the defence. Aviation expert Valeri Romenko highlighted that while the Patriot system is highly capable, it too has its limitations. The system can theoretically handle up to 16 aerial targets simultaneously, but its success depends on various factors. Given that hypersonic Kinzhal missiles were launched at the capital, the Patriot system would prioritize these as primary threats, leaving the interception of other missiles to less capable defense systems.
This attack in no way diminishes the significant success of Ukraine’s air defence systems and Western-supplied weapons. Instead, it underscores the harsh realities of this war and the relentless efforts of the aggressor to inflict maximum devastation and terror on Ukrainian civilians. It only highlights the urgent need for Western partners to provide timely and adequate defence support, as Ukraine has been requesting for months, if not years.
Russia Narrative: Look What We’ve Done/ Proud / Happy
Mardan (244,000 subscribers): “Captivating panoramas of summer Kyiv.” – showing a picture of the destruction.
Alex Parker Returns (224,000) : “It’s not enough.” – showing a video of the destruction
“Thanks to the Ukrainian air defence forces. At least they, as always, make me happy. Keep up the good work!” – showing a video of the destruction
Armen Gasparyan (209,000) : “It’s pretty lively in Kyiv nowadays.”
Vityazeva (71,000) : “Russia spent $250 million on today’s missile attack on Ukraine, according to Forbes.” “And so what? We live on our own, not asking anyone for anything. We can afford it.”
Fighterbomber (503,000) “Yesterday, the whole world became a spectator of a grand spectacle called ‘they killed our kids.’ Thousands of extras, absurd and meaningless actions by the crowd (the passing of water jugs was something else), and beautiful and highly artistic staged photos and videos from the ruins of one of the dozens of precisely struck targets.”
Verified: Where better to begin this analysis than to expose the evil nature of propagandists, calling out the joy they derived from witnessing the attack, death, and destruction.
These narratives and reactions aim to depict scenes of death and panic in Kyiv with callous detachment or even amusement in order to remove the human factor from the attack. The language trivializes human suffering with the aim of desensitizing audiences to the realities of Russia’s terror acts, increasing domestic support for its war, and manipulating those in the west to “call for negotiations”.
Russia Narrative: “Ukraine/Zelensky is Helpless” / “All Will Only Get Worse”
Vityazeva (71,000): “Jackals howled at the moon all night. The Moon never found out about it…”
“If only we could ask so that tomorrow morning we wake up, and Ukraine just disappears! The people would exist, the land would exist, and architecture exists, but Ukraine – does not. And Zelensky too.”
Mardan (244,000) : “Until today, Kyiv was a completely safe city. A place where living was easy and pleasant. Where crowds of foreign tourists and dozens, if not hundreds, of government delegations could be brought. It seemed like it would always be this way. […] And it will only get worse from here.
“As for this person who is using foul language to comment on the work of our VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) in Kyiv, how did he feel about the almost daily shelling of Donetsk and other populated areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics starting from 2014?”
Sheikh Tamir (442,000): Have you noticed that the more air defense systems are transferred to Kyiv, the more destruction and civilian casualties there are… Air defense systems bring death.”
Пул (Russian) N3 (343,000) : “What happened only underscores one thing: the United States should stop supplying the Banderites with weapons, which result in the deaths of civilians both in Russia and in Ukraine.”
Verified: Looking specifically at Vityazeva’s comments, a propagandist who was more active than usual during this attack, attempts to humiliate and “poetically” suggest that no matter how much noise or effort is made by the jackals (Zelensky and the Ukrainian people), it will fall on deaf ears.
She is attempting to convey a sense of insignificance by portraying Zelensky and Ukraine’s calls for assistance as a lost cause, with the goal of instilling fear in the Ukrainian people that they have already been and will be left unarmed again for repeated attacks. This is a track used to fear-monger, to force a Ukrainian mood for negotiations at a time when the terms would be favourable only to Russia.
This trend is evident across the majority of Kremlin-backed channels. The narrative that “Zelensky is helpless” is not new; it has been used since the beginning of his presidential campaign and has grown in intensity, particularly after Russia falsely declared his authority to be no longer legitimate. This consistent messaging aims to undermine trust in Ukrainian leadership and instill a sense of inevitability in Russian dominance, weakening Ukrainian resistance and resolve.
We must remember that Russian propagandists are not an independent entity; they are directly guided by the Kremlin. Narratives and trends are specifically crafted by the Kremlin to fit its broader agenda. However, the rhetoric here, especially from Vityazeva, underscores what Ukraine has been warning about for years: Russia wants to erase Ukraine from this earth while keeping its territory for themselves and future military objectives.
Russia Narrative: “Ukrainian Provocation on the Eve of NATO Summit” / “A Ukrainian Job”
Vityazeva (71,000) : “Another provocation with a long-range objective.”
Armen Gasparyan (209,000) : All rural dumps are currently filled with this fake news. Before the alliance summit, the outdated fool will push this topic non-stop.
Mardan (244,000) : “For political Kyiv, today’s strike by the brave Ukrainian air defense on a children’s hospital means only one thing – an opportunity to launch a massive international fundraising campaign in support of Ukraine. This has happened before. They pulled Bucha out of their sleeve in the same way.”
Rodion Miroshnik (25,000): “The overwhelming majority of countries that have sent their representatives to witness the destruction are set to meet in the USA at the upcoming NATO summit. They will attempt to leverage the emotional impact of this bloody spectacle to extract more funds and weapons from their taxpayers to continue the bloodshed in Ukraine.”
Пул (Russian) N3 (343,000) :”In the USA, they hypocritically remain silent about the fact that the missile that hit the civilian infrastructure was a Ukrainian air defense missile. This is not the first time we have seen the Kyiv regime blatantly blame its own barbaric crimes on the Russian Federation.
Politjoystic: “A missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv is another special operation by Westerners for the NATO summit in the USA (which opens today). They bombed it themselves, they’re hyping it up themselves, and they’ll approve the war budget themselves.”
Peace today with “Yuriy Podolyaka”: “For Bankova (Ukrainian government), it is important to use the tragedy before the NATO summit to create a new emotional wave, but comparing the videos and photos, we will see a big scandal in the future when Western journalists write about it.”
Verified: After Russian propaganda revelled in the killing and destruction of Ukraine’s capital, including attacks on children suffering from cancer, the narrative that it was a “False Flag Op” emerged. Since 2014, the Kremlin has used the alleged killings of women and children in Donbas as one of the few justifications for violating international law and invading Ukraine, and so, to be seen doing it itself now in Ukraine, especially on the most vulnerable, is somewhat of a slippery slope even for propaganda to hide.
Russian propaganda, as always, seeks to persuade both the Russian people and the “pro peace” individuals in the West that it couldn’t have been Russia who did this, because “Russia never attacks civilians”. Here’s a reminder of some of the most notable proven war crimes by the Russian military:
1. The Kramatorsk railway station. 2. Konstantinovka Market. 3. Mariupol drama theater marked “children”. 4. Bucha
The narrative attempts to demonstrate that only Ukraine benefits from this attack, and thus would be willing to attack its own civilians as a false flag to gain more support at the upcoming NATO summit, just as propaganda claims it did with Bucha and all the other atrocities Russia committed, which, of course, led to heightened western support.
Let’s not forget, Ukraine gains nothing from this attack except pain, suffering, societal anger, and moral exhaustion. The only “positives” one could take from this tragedy are: the harsh technical lesson for future air defense strategies; that Kyiv is not fully defended and so going down to bunkers is vital; and for the world to realise there are really no limits Russia would go to in this war.
Russia subnarrative: “Not Our Missile – It’s Definitely a Patriotic Missile. Wait, no, it’s a NASAMS missile. Wait…”
Vityazeva (71,000): “BOpen-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts and military experts agree that the video shows a strike from a MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. Experts also speculate that it could have been a missile from the NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System).
Abu (110,000): The squealers were screaming about the X-101 (X-55) cruise missile, although it’s obvious that neither the wings nor the size match from the video of the missile strike on the children’s hospital, which was mistakenly posted by the SBU (someone will probably be sent to the basement). In the end, it turned out to be a Ukrainian air defense hit—an AIM-120 missile from the NASAMS system..
Russia Ministry of Defence : “Statements from representatives of the Kyiv regime about Russia’s alleged intentional missile strikes on civilian objects absolutely do not correspond to reality. Numerous published photos and videos from Kyiv clearly confirm the fact of destruction caused by the Ukrainian air defense missile’s impact.”
Russian Ambassador to the UN, Nebenzya: “This tragedy could have been avoided if the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not placed air defense systems in residential areas.”
Colonelcassad (864,000) : “Russian missiles worked as planned on military targets. Ukrainian missiles, as usual, targeted peaceful Ukrainians.”
Verified: As the day progressed, first responders and investigative committees from Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) presented physical shrapnel evidence confirming that it was a Kh-101 missile.
Additional images taken by Ukrainians from various angles provide a better view of the attack for experts to make their conclusions (see image below).
As a result of the visible and undeterred direct hit, Russian propagandists were forced to abandon the claim that it was shrapnel damage or a deviated missile hit by Ukrainian air defense and instead claim that Ukraine, using the most modern Western systems, fired at itself.
However, Bellingcat’s analysis of social media footage and a 3D model of the missile confirmed that the munition was a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile. This analysis supports the views of missile technology experts such as Fabian Hoffman and Dr. Jeffrey Lewis.
Bellingcat also investigated the alternative theory that the missile was a US-made AIM-120, but found no evidence to back up this claim. Their analysis of SBU-shared images, which Ukrainian experts identified as Kh-101 missile remnants, posed verification challenges due to a lack of geographic data in the images. However, Bellingcat later confirmed the authenticity by cross-referencing images from Ukrainian news agencies that showed the hospital’s geolocation, which matched the missile remnants described in the SBU posts.
