Written by Matt Wickham UCMC/HWAG analyst
In a recent interview orchestrated as a prelude to the (re)elections, Putin engaged in a carefully choreographed spectacle with Dmitry Kiselev, a well-known propagandist infamous for his sensationalist narratives. Kiselev’s history of promoting fear-inducing scenarios, such as threatening the UK with a nuclear submarine launching a missile to create a mile-high radioactive wave, makes him a fitting partner for Putin’s narrative-building efforts, particularly in the lead-up to the bogus elections. In this analysis, we’ll dissect key moments from Putin’s interview, analysing and refuting their significance.
“Each human life is valuable. Any loss of a family member is a great pain[…]We came [to Ukraine] to help these people. If we forget about these people, our future loss will be multiplied many times over, and our children will not have a future because we will be a country of a third or fourth sort. The consequences could be catastrophic.”
– A classic Putin distortion of history
Negotiations and Guarantees
“We are open to negotiations, but the time for goodwill has passed.” Putin continued to show his annoyance that Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and reportedly convinced the Ukrainian authorities to abandon what Putin considered to be rather successful negotiations. He now claims that all has changed and future talks will be made “based only on the reality of the situation on the ground,” implying that Russia has the upper hand and Ukraine will need to bow to its demands once again.
He continues his pre full-scale invasion rhetoric of playing the eternal victim, telling how ‘poor’ Russia was promised so much but it was not fulfilled: NATO not expanding, and that Minsk agreements would be honoured, offended at how Merkel and Macron later told that no one had any intention of abiding by the treaty, but claiming that from Russia’s side, all was legit. “They promised so much, but now their promises aren’t enough. We need a serious discussion about our guarantees,” Putin says, although never alluding to what these guarantees actually are.
There has been more talk about negotiations over the past week (a track that Russia has artificially pushed), ostensibly to demonstrate its openness to diplomatic solutions and an end to suffering, which obviously fits well with the Pope’s idea of peace.
However, this track serves a dual purpose: for Russia to appear conciliatory while also exploiting Western indecisiveness and fear to sway US politicians on the fence regarding continued support for Ukraine. By fearmongering about the potential costs, volatility, and suffering of a continued war, Putin aims to pressure Western leaders into prioritising negotiations over military support for Ukraine. This tactic aims to solidify Russia’s gains since 2022, using occupied territories as a springboard for further advances west once its military complex is back on its feet, while exploiting Western divisions and uncertainties.
Moreover, Putin’s rhetoric of victimhood, lamenting unfulfilled promises from Western leaders regarding NATO expansion and the Minsk agreements, seeks to garner sympathy and legitimacy for Russia’s ‘war of defence’—a popular narrative among the Tucker Carlson fans of the West.
The End of French Influence in Africa?
The conversation then shifts to Macron, a current hot topic in the war between Russia and Ukraine, with Kiselev asking Putin if he believes Macron has gone insane or is motivated by vengeance after Russia ‘reduced’ France’s influence in Africa. Putin explains that operations in France are of a ‘friendly nature’; that “this was an unintentional act and was not even part of Russia’s strategy,” telling how many African countries just want to be friends with Russia.
However, Russia has actively increased operations on the African continent over the last few years, particularly following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine—an attempt to cushion the economic isolation from much of the western world. Moreover, Wagner Group’s activities in Africa played a significant role in such, aimed at solidifying and extending Moscow’s strategic ties across the continent.
Lastly, at the Russian-African summit in 2023 Putin offered increased pledges of grain supplies and debt relief to African nations in exchange for heightened cooperation with Russia. This move to essentially buy Africa coincided with Russia’s withdrawal from the deal of the Back Sea grain corridor. It aimed to exert more pressure on African countries to agree to Russia’s deal and show Ukraine as an unreliable partner. It was a concerted effort to diminish Ukraine’s role as the primary grain provider to African nations and, in doing so, create a stronger foothold in the region, complicating France’s peacekeeping initiatives.
Macron and Western Troops in Ukraine
Putin describes how Western countries’ military presence in Ukraine is “nothing new”, dismissing Macron’s recent talk about sending troops to Ukraine as insignificant—a track seen among all propagandists at present as Macron continues his hardtalk on Russia. Putin claims that foreign involvement has been widespread in Ukraine since 2014 (when Ukraine successfully fought for its independence during the Euromaidan protests and Russia lost much political influence). This is a narrative propaganda pushes to portray Ukraine as a puppet state, controlled by the West, specifically the United States. “Advisors and foreign legions have been directly involved [in the war], and they are all dying [in Ukraine]. However, their actual presence on the battlefield makes no difference. Just like the arms delivery, nothing changed.” Putin tells.
It is interesting to note how Putin now considers the arms delivery insignificant, given the progress they have provided Ukraine with; without it, Ukraine would have struggled to resist and liberate the occupied territories, which Putin put down to Russia wanting to preserve the lives of its military personnel. However, the number of soldiers thrown into Avdiivka at any cost—over 40,000 by the general staff of Ukraine’s estimates (mid October to February 17)—shows Putin has no regard for human life, regardless of his statement mentioned at the start of this analysis.
“Poland is the Real Enemy”
Putin considers the real danger lies not in the possibility of Western troops being deployed in Ukraine—a scenario he deems inconsequential (*note: shifting red lines and “tragic consequences” rhetoric, once again) but rather in its political ramifications for Ukraine.
He suggests that if Polish forces were to intervene to relieve Ukrainian troops from border duties and allow them to join the frontlines, then it is because Poland has an ulterior motive—the “reclamation of Poland’s historical claims to certain territories,” and that could compel them to remain in Ukraine indefinitely.
Nuclear Escalation?
Kiselev tells how so-called philosopher Aleksander Dugin, whose ideology framed Kremlin’s justification of the invasion of Ukraine, is calling for preparation for nuclear war. This part of the interview is the premise to the whole 1.5 hour interview – “On a technical level, yes, of course [Russia is ready]. It’s always at military readiness”. And that being the message Putin wanted to send the US from this interview.
Putin’s assertion regarding Russia’s unparalleled uranium capabilities compared to other nations, coupled with his emphasis on preparedness but “that doesn’t mean nuclear war will happen tomorrow,” echoes the nuclear sabre rattling reminiscent of those of Soviet leaders during the Cold War. However, when questioned about his “red lines” and the absence of tactical nuclear weapon deployment during Ukraine’s sweeping offensive in autumn 2022, Putin deflects by attributing military decisions to avoiding unnecessary loss of personnel. “The commanders decided to retreat from Kherson and Kharkiv. Not because the front is falling apart. Far from it. But instead done to avoid excess loss of personnel.”
Despite Putin’s attempts to downplay Russia’s failures, the reality is that Russia experienced considerable losses of the occupied territory in 2022. It also highlights the disappointment and confusion of propagandist Kiselev, who always gets a kick from a more perverted stance from Putin to fulfil his own narrative of potential nuclear war and the deaths of thousands of innocents.
