On November 3, two former ambassadors of Ukraine to the United States of America became participants in the “Geopolitical Dialogues” at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. Yuriy Shcherbak headed the Ukrainian embassy in 1994-1998, Valeriy Chaly – in 2015-2019. Today, neither is directly related to diplomacy. One is the chairman of the UCMC board; the other is a writer, although he has vast experience as a politician, environmental activist, and even a doctor-epidemiologist.
At the beginning of the conversation, Valeriy Chaly wanted to know the guest’s opinion of the medium-term perspective of the world developments.
Yuriy Shcherbak replied that he would use American military terminology for that purpose. They distinguish the future and beyond. The future is 10 years ahead. With this in mind, the development and production of weapons is planned.
“In this format, I predict that we are inevitably approaching World War III. Ukraine has found itself in the epicenter of a global war involving about 140 states, and this war is a continuation of the process of sliding into World War III. I studied the history of the First and Second, and I can say that in 1913 people weren’t aware that they were approaching a terrible event in human history. If you look at that time in retrospect, you’ll immediately see how alliances were formed and how local wars prepared the ground for a global war. The same is happening today,” the writer said.
He noted that according to the Americans’ documents, 2027-2030 is a probable period of collision, when they and the Chinese will be ready. A split of humanity into two blocs is undergoing.
“In my opinion, about 50 democratic countries will form a global NATO. The block won’t survive in the format it exists today. They take Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. A new global structure is being built. The so-called Global South is also being structured. They are preparing for a confrontation. This can be seen not only in the example of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but also in the very serious conflict in Israel, which can involve at least 10 countries,” noted Yuriy Shcherbak.
For his part, Valery Chaly noticed that a world war is already underway in cyberspace. Attacks and counterattacks are conducted on a global level. The USA, Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, and in defense Ukraine are involved in this war. We have yet to see its development in space. In terms of naval forces, we see the location. Everyone is trying what they can. The only thing is that people still understand what’s happening. There are witnesses of World War II, and for them, the way things developed then is not similar to today’s picture.
“Everyone wants redistribution of influence. Russia is very vocal about this, but it has already lost this opportunity by making the mistake of attacking Ukraine. However, politicians and people who are behind them wanted to redistribute the world in geopolitical and business terms. Previously, crises and wars were enough for this. Vietnam and Korea were in the period when there was no global war,” continued the Chairman of the UCMC board.
His interlocutor compared today’s picture of the world with the Game of Thrones series.
The complete destruction of international rules, behavior, standards, chaotization of the world, and redistribution of power centers. There have appeared some dictatorial countries, which were able to provide a certain standard of living for their population, and now demand a share in global power, and claim it by all means.
Valeriy Chaly mentioned that not so long ago Ukraine was officially talking about an alliance with Great Britain and Poland. Unfortunately, talks about it stopped. Perhaps, one of the reasons for this is the reluctance to irritate NATO as a whole, because it could lead to a split in NATO.
“If we are not accepted into NATO, if we are not invited to the summit in Washington next year, we will have to decide something. And to think about how to protect the country in a different way. There has been published the article about the thoughts in the president’s office and those of his assistants. These are political realities. There has been published Zaluzhnyi’s article with the vision of the military elite of Ukraine. There should be similar plans related to the energy sector, the development of the middle class, and ecology. Combining all this, we would see a realistic plan for the country’s development. In the meantime, everyone sees what is happening. What, in your opinion, should be the benchmarks for Ukrainian society under these conditions?” he asked the guest.
According to Yuriy Shcherbak, this is an indisputable, absolute, and brutal separation from the Russian world. “They have been our enemies for 350 years. They have showed their beast face and will remain the same in the future. I have never been a Russophobe, but I have seen people from the russian hinterland who hate Ukrainians and envy us because we live better,” the writer added.
He is also convinced that Ukraine needs a military regime – not a dictatorship – for at least 2 years. It must restore order.
“Zaluzhnyi’s article put an end to the period of declamation in the 95th quarter style. They really acted very positively, influencing our allies. Now it doesn’t work. And this proved the failure of the trip to Washington. We need different rhetoric, different approache that we don’t have yet,” Yuriy Shcherbak noted.
He believes that negotiations on joining the European Union will last from 5 to 10 years. It cannot be otherwise – every diplomat will confirm. This means that the path to NATO must be accelerated.
“As for the revival of the country, it is not possible without investments, and investments are not possible in the climate where they will steal. Why should the White House give us a list of our reforms? They did the same thing 30 years ago. Gore gave it to Kuchma. How long can it last? I only hope for the young generation of Euro-Ukrainians who understand that populists cannot be elected,” the former environmental activist concluded.