This past week, several world leaders visited Ukraine in show of support. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki flew to Kyiv on Tuesday, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with President Zelenskyi in Ukraine’s capital on Thursday. Next week, the French President and the German Chancellor will visit Ukraine. In the face of Russian aggression, global leaders unite in search of a diplomatic solution.
Here’s what we know of the visits and the results they had.
Ukraine, Poland, UK form new grouping
Ukraine, Poland, and the UK formed a new grouping, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced February 1. It adds to Ukraine’s efforts to build “small alliances”, partnerships like the Lublin Triangle (Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania), and the Association Trio (Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia).
With NATO’s direct involvement and the EU’s “security umbrella” out of reach, Ukraine relies on regional cooperation to strengthen economic ties and improve how it’s viewed internationally.
The tactics has been widely in use by all new members of the EU and NATO. There’s the Weimar Triangle, a grouping between Germany, France, and Poland, the Baltic trio of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, and the Visegrad Group of Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.
Formal start postponed. Ukraine, Poland, and the UK had to delay the official announcement initially scheduled for the evening of February 1 as UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was diagnosed with Covid-19.
“Foreign ministries of three countries planned to announce a new partnership during the visit of our British counterpart tomorrow,” Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs wrote in a Facebook post. “Unfortunately, she was diagnosed with Covid, and we had to postpone the announcement. But our teams will not waste time and will continue to work on the partnership,” Kuleba said.
On the late evening of January 31, Struss said she tested positive for Covid. She was due to accompany Britain’s Prime Minister to Ukraine.
New partnership. In an interview with BBC News Ukraine, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK Vadym Prystaiko spoke of the future alliance.
That’s not exactly a “NATO for three”, Prystaiko said in response to a question from BBC. “It is actually an attempt to find friends, partners, and assistance in this critical moment,” he explained. Ukraine has to rely on NATO members ready to help now, Prystaiko added.
The partnership between the UK and Ukraine is growing stronger. The countries signed the Political, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement, and the UK will provide almost GBP two billion to Ukraine. It already supplies antitank weapons and helps build ships and naval bases.
Ukraine called for a new trilateral partnership with the UK and Poland in early December 2021 amid the buildup of Russian troops at its border, an unnamed diplomatic source told BBC.
Role of Poland, UK. The UK has interests in Eastern Europe, Prystaiko is quoted as saying by BBC News Ukraine. “The interest is part of UK’s Global Britain concept developed post-Brexit. The UK needs a friend like Ukraine. Similarly, relations between Poland and the UK matter. In the eyes of British people, Ukraine is a strong state on the other side of the European continent,” Prystaiko said.
The alliance is part of UK’s strategy to reassert influence on the world stage and in the region post-Brexit, political analyst Oleksandr Krayev told BBC. Each of the three countries has disagreements with Brussels.
As not all NATO members demonstrate a resolve to stand up to the Russian threat, the UK hopes for effective partnerships in Eastern Europe.
“The trilateral partnership can become a new ‘Little Entente’, a grouping created by a number of Central and Eastern European countries in the early 20th century that shared the goals of the Triple Entente,” the analyst said.
Turkey’s President Erdogan visits Kyiv
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Kyiv on the day that marked 30 years of diplomatic ties between Ukraine and Turkey.
In Kyiv, Ukraine and Turkey signed a free trade deal and an agreement on joint production of Bayraktar drones in Ukraine. Turkey will also open two more consulates in Ukraine.
President Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity “including Crimea”.
The Turkish President offered to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow to defuse tension.
“I underscored that we would be happy to host a summit at the level of leaders in Turkey or talks at the technical level,” Erdogan said after the meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelenskyi. He said he would like to “defuse tensions, not add fuel to the fire.”
As of this writing, neither Ukraine nor Russia accepted Erdogan’s offer.
Bayraktar drones. At a news conference, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov spoke of a framework defense technology agreement between Ukraine and Turkey ahead of its signing.
“The agreement foresees construction of a factory that will manufacture Bayraktar drones in Ukraine,” Reznikov said. “We will also set up a training facility to train pilots to fly different drone types.”
Turkey used Bayraktar TB2 drones in the Spring Shield Operation in Syria in 2020. In the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in autumn 2020, Bayraktar drones secured an advantage over Armenian troops to Azerbaijani forces.
The next generation of the aircraft would use engines made by Ukraine’s Motor Sich. “Technically, those will be Ukrainian-Turkish aircraft,” Reznikov said.
As of October 2021, Ukraine had 12 Bayraktar drones. In October, Ukraine’s Joint Forces made the first Bayraktar drone strike to suppress hostile fire as D30 howitzers fired at positions of the Ukrainian troops and a Ukrainian service member was killed. Russia faulted Ukraine for an escalation.
The deal to supply attack drones to Ukraine angered Moscow. The aircraft can change the balance of forces in Donbas. Ukraine could buy dozens more shortly, Ukraine and Turkey said.
Erdogan’s difficult balance. Despite clear positive gains from Erdogan’s visit, the Ukrainian leadership is conscious that the Turkish President tries to balance between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey wishes to preserve good relations with Russia, and Russian President Putin called on Turkey to review its stance on Ukraine.
A NATO member, Turkey signed NATO’s response to Russia’s demands. Also, it does not recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and supports Crimean Tatars.
At the same time Turkey is dependent on Russia’s energy supplies flown through TurkStream. Erdogan is due to meet Putin in Ankara after the visit to Kyiv.