How prolonging Russian aggression affects the world economy?

The United Nations has previously pointed out that the world is facing a global food crisis due to the beginning of a large-scale invasion and blockade of Ukrainian ports. Ukraine grows enough food to feed 400 million people worldwide, which includes 50% of the world’s sunflower oil supply, 10% of the world’s grain supply and 13% of global corn supply. As for now, up to 30% of crop areas in Ukraine will either not be planted or be unharvested this year because of the Russian attack.

The WTO has estimated that Russia’s war against Ukraine could reduce world economic growth by 1.3 percent this year. According to model calculations, global GDP in 2022 will grow by only 3.1 – 3.7 percent. The reasons will be rising food and energy prices, as well as declining exports from Russia and Ukraine. Last October, the WTO forecast a 4.7 percent increase.

The IMF reported that Russia’s war against Ukraine would lead to an economic downturn in 143 countries. According to Georgieva, food and fuel importing countries in Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Europe will suffer. At the same time, the IMF expects more turmoil: the world expects oil prices to fall below $100 per barrel, migrant workers from Central Asia will lose their income, and the global economy will enter the second wave of the chip crisis. Inflation in the EU will be ambiguous, which will possibly raise anti-immigrant sentiment in EU countries.

So, what will the world economy endure as a result of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine? See in the new issue Ukraine in Flames #62.


  • Igor Burakovsky, Chairman of the Board at Institute of economic research and policy consulting
  • Volodymyr Dubrovsky, senior economist and member of supervisory board at CASE Ukraine Valerii Pekar, adjunct professor of Kyiv-Mohyla Business School.

UKRAINE IN FLAMES project is created by Ukraine Crisis Media CenterUkrainian Catholic University’s analitical center and NGO “Euroatlantic Course”.  We are aiming at searching a loud support for Ukraine in the war started by Russia on the 24th of February 2022.

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