Putin and his cronies swing nuclear missiles into the world leaders’ faces – again. Spikes of nuclear frenzy seem to follow the aggressor’s need to terrify its Western counterparts when Russia has few other leverage points. Kremlin officials try to persuade the world that Russia will strike if existentially threatened. Russian TV propaganda has simulated nuclear strikes on different regions of the world multiple times in response to pro-Ukrainian political actions and statements by the West.
On the surface, Russia is a recognised nuclear power to be weary of. According to different expert estimates, Russia is likely to have about 1,500 tactical nuclear warheads deployed on strategic long-range systems, and almost 3,000 in storage. On February 28, 2022, Putin claimed the Russian nuclear systems were activated to fit ‘a special regimen of combat duty’. The illusion of nuclear readiness is supported by Russia’s military ally – Belarus – and the Russian officials’ regular statements. President Lukashenka claimed he allowed Russia to deploy nuclear-capable missiles on Belarusian territory near the Ukrainian border. Russia said in April that it plans to deploy its newly tested Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles, capable of mounting nuclear strikes against the US, by autumn 2022.
Realistically, the Kremlin is using the nukes as a scarecrow for the last few ready to believe in Russia’s military and economic power. Intelligence informs Russia’s nuclear missiles have not been prepared for launch at no point during the Russian aggression. Moreover, the war has shown that the Russian army is notorious for corruption and mismanagement if strategic development is concerned, so there is little chance Russia will effectively launch the nuclear protocol. It is a widespread view among U.S. experts and Western officials that the chances of Russia using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war are extremely low. The real danger is the potential effectiveness of Russia’s bullying, blackmailing and terrorizing tactic, which should be recognised as such and firmly opposed.
Speakers:
- Viktor Yagun, Major General of the Security Service of Ukraine
- Yuri Kostenko, Minister of Natural Environment Protection in 1992-1998
- Oleksandr Kraiev, expert of the Foreign Policy Council of “Ukrainian Prism”
- Mykhailo Samus, Deputy Director for International Affairs of the Center for Army Conversion and Disarmament Studies.
UKRAINE IN FLAMES project is created by Ukraine Crisis Media Center, Ukrainian Catholic University’s analitical center and NGO “Euroatlantic Course”. We are aiming at searching a loud support for Ukraine in the war started by Russia on the 24th of February 2022.
If you want to support Ukraine against Russian aggression, check the link with recommendations by Ukraine Crisis Media Center – https://uacrisis.org/en/help-ukraine.
NGO Euroatlantic Course collects donations to support Ukrainian Army and civilians – https://eac.org.ua/en/main-page/.
