On October 7, 2023, the Hamas terrorist group attacked Be’eri, an Israeli kibbutz. At least 108 people were killed and dozens of houses were burned, which became the driver of new phases of the Middle East conflict. How will events unfold in this region or is the situation extremely unpredictable? The Chairman of the Board of the Ukraine Crisis Media Center, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Valeriy Chaly invited the well-known expert, director of the AMES Center Ihor Semyvolos to discuss this complex issue in the Geopolitical Dialogues format. Despite the fact that Ukraine is waging its war for independence, it is concerned about the events in Israel, Lebanon and Palestine. What are our national interests and how best to protect them?
Valeriy Chaly believes that although making predictions is a thankless task, three main scenarios seem obvious. This is a further advance of Israel into the territory of Lebanon, a more powerful response of Iran with the expansion of the regional conflict and deja vu of 2006, when Israeli forces enter a certain territory, then there is a certain resolution that neither side fulfills, and then the troops are withdrawn. Israel is moving north, and Hezbollah is strangely disappearing from southern Lebanon.
“I do not predict a quick war. Most likely, this may drag on, because we are dealing with escalation,” Ihor Semyvolos noted for his part.
In his opinion, the situation is developing dynamically and is similar to paste from a tube which has been squeezed out, and which is very difficult to drive back.
“Iran and Israel crossed certain red lines. Israel struck the political leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas. On the other hand, the Iranians have already struck twice on the territory of Israel, that is, this red line has been crossed, and nothing will prevent them from launching a third, fourth, and fifth strike. The slide into a major regional war is taking place gradually but steadily.”
“What will be the next six months and what might be the points of influence so that we can somehow react or at least prepare for a reaction?” Valeriy Chaly asked his colleague.
If the conflict starts under an escalation scenario, we will most likely see a catastrophic rise in oil prices, which is a bad scenario for us. The Iranians have already threatened, and I think they are absolutely serious in this case. They have such capabilities, and in case of a strike on Iranian oil industry facilities, they will strike the same facilities of American allies in the Middle East.
The Chairman of the UCMC Board believes that without an effort to discuss the historical depth of this conflict, it will not be resolved. Another conclusion is that a stable situation is beneficial for Ukraine, and therefore a scenario of a quick solution rather than a regional war.
“I want to add that it will also affect resources and provision of military aid to Ukraine. Let’s take the Patriot systems. Both we and Saudi Arabia need them. Therefore, a regional war will definitely not help Ukraine, but will give Russia additional maneuvers, and this is a serious challenge for us and our diplomacy. But the most important thing is that this territory is actually very close to us. Iran’s ballistic missiles reach the territory of Europe, which means they cover the entire territory of Ukraine. This should be part of our strategic defense assessment,” the diplomat emphasized.
What can we do to preveni this regional war?
Ihor Semyvolos is convinced that we are unlikely to be able to contribute to the existing mess and prevent it.
It is necessary to proceed from the schedule that will arise in the course of the play.
“Strategy is good when you have resources. When you have no resources, then write 10 strategies, but they will not work. However, there are tactical steps that can eventually create some sort of strategy. Lebanon is one of the few countries in the Middle East that actively showed solidarity with Ukraine after February 2022. In Lebanon, in contrast to most Arab countries, mass rallies in support of Ukraine took place. Both Ukrainians who live there and Arabs who are connected to Ukraine should remember the fact that human solidarity is a very important factor,” the director of the AMES Center emphasized.
The Middle East is involved in our war. During these two years, it entered the homes of Arabs and became part of their inner life. According to the expert, this solved one key issue for us – now no one confuses Ukraine with Russia. Besides, based on this knowledge, it gives us a chance to develop these relations in Ukrainian interests in the future.