The focus of Ukrainians’ attention again shifted to Washington, where an intrigue surrounding the result of the country’s presidential election proved to be short-lived. The very next day, it became obvious that in January, the Oval Office of the White House will be occupied by Donald Trump – a politician who promised to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours. However, no one knows yet what his real steps will be. These lacunae of uncertainty are filled with daily insights, which often contradict each other. Should we make any predictions against this background? The well-known journalist and media manager Tetiana Troshchynska decided to give it a try, and invited the Chairman of the UCMC Board, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine Valeriy Chaly to participate in a conversation. Below is his direct speech.
About information noise and peace plans
Sometimes the information sphere is very different from real facts. This is especially true during election campaigns, wherever they are. Promises made during the campaign and their implementation afterwards are two different things. A clear example is the promise to stop the war within 24 hours made by the newly elected president of the United States Donald Trump even before taking office, which will take place after the inauguration on January 20. Some people perceive such statements literally,but I think that Ukrainians, who heard from the then spokesman of the Ukrainian official government Mr. Arestovych about the end of the war in two or three weeks, should be more tolerant of other statements as well.
Trust the people you should trust. Trust the Ukrainian government, whatever it is. It was democratically elected. Trust the incumbent President of Ukraine and experts rather than political commentators. Trust the analysts who have repeatedly confirmed their reputation not in forecasts, but in assessing the situation. If you trust me, I will tell you my position, which is not 100% guaranteed, but well-argued. Unfortunately, there will be no real peace plans for Ukraine in the coming months.
To date, there is no peace plan of President Trump.This still requires working out and preparing various levers of influence, including on Russia. There is no strategy for the victory of Ukraine, because Ukraine’s strategy does not coincide with that of our partners.
In my opinion, all these issues are postponed at least until the spring. Practical discussions are not expected until the spring, but we will see the introduction and spread of many initiatives with different visions of how it is better for Ukrainians to capitulate. First, there will be very serious pressure on Ukraine, and if the Russian side does not change its approach and continues on its course, there will be a second stage, when our partners will take a different position.
Why the Russian Federation can lose
Russia is heading for its defeat. The problem is that we don’t know how long it will take for the RF to lose. It can take a year, three, or ten. The special services of Western countries have such information that Russia’s economy has run out of funds. This is a country that makes nuclear threats, but at the same time cannot provide its citizens with butter and buys Ukrainian butter from Saudi Arabia or Turkey, and thus prevents social discontent.
I have thoroughly studied the peculiarities of Russia and can say that everything can change suddenly there. If the tsar’s contract with his servants is violated, if people are not given vodka and sausages for a week, roughly speaking, there will be the same kind of riot that started with the Potemkin battleship in the territory 100 kilometers from Moscow and St. Petersburg. Putin is actually more afraid of a popular riot than Donald Trump or the United States. He believes that with the war against Ukraine he cemented power in Russia and now he has a police state sufficient to suppress these riots. But what will happen next if the sanctions are not lifted? Therefore, the first thing they will shout in January is “Lift sanctions from Russia.”
How to convince Donald Trump to support Ukraine
He will have to show who is the leader in the world to those insolent representatives of the Russian government who threaten Washington with nuclear weapons and who say that even Donald Trump will not change anything and everything is in the hands of Moscow. He should show them their place.
But first they must analyze the consequences of the explosion of the Sarmat missile. Although they threatened the USA with it, they cannot even launch this missile. They show all their technological unreadiness. And against this background, I would like to draw attention to the launch of the Minuteman III missile by the Americans on the election day. 6,200 miles is enough to reach the Russian territory from the US side across the pole, let alone the accuracy of hitting the target. There are many such missiles. This is not a “Sarmat” that does not take off.
Ukrainians do not need you to repeat that you are with us and will help us as much as you can. Just help us as much as we need. Conduct another joint military exercise with Japan, other partners or South Korea in Alaska, close to the Russian territory so that Russia will withdraw its forces transferred from the Far East to us and thus will expose its eastern flank. Secondly, why does the USA not talk to its partners about the purchase of American weapons at the expense of other countries? Japan and the Republic of Korea help us a lot here. And Norway? This country is sitting on trillions of dollars. One and a half million dollars are allocated to security. Can American equipment be bought with these funds? I’m sure Donald Trump won’t mind. That is, there is a way out. Europe that takes more responsibility can close these gaps.