2024 became a record year in the number of the AFU’s drone attacks on military facilities based on Russian territory. Ukraine is aiming for the “Achilles’ heel” of Putin’s regime – the oil industry. Despite the Western Sanctions, the oil products exports fed the Kremlin’s war machine for almost three years.
In the last days of his presidency, the U.S. ex-president Joe Biden implemented the most severe package of sanctions his term had seen, focusing on targeting the Russian shadow fleet. Based on the experts’ estimations, this will cause Russia to face logistics issues. Today the freight rates for shipping Russian oil in the Far East have increased fivefold due to the deficit of tankers, caused by Washington’s new restrictions. Still, these steps appear to be belated against the profits Moscow received in three years thanks to the oil industry. In 2024 alone the federal budget of the Russian Federation received 11.13 trillion rubles in oil and gas revenues (approximately $120 billion at current exchange rates), which is 26,2% more than in 2023. In 2025, provided that the imposed sanctions and the new US administration’s policy aimed at reducing oil prices are adhered to, the Kremlin can hardly count on excess profits from the sales of oil products.
However, in a war of attrition, which Ukraine is forced to fight, it is necessary to take action, rather than passively wait for the aggressor state’s economy to collapse. This is why Kyiv is systematically implementing its own sanctions against the Russian oil refining industry and its ability to export gas. Opposed to the financial mechanism, that the Western countries are using, Ukrainian sanctions gave wings and carry tens of kilograms of explosives. Last year OSINT experts counted at least 81 attacks on Russian oil refineries. In January 2025 the intensity of these attacks increased again.
The Kremlin’s reputation takes a hit
The oil refineries being targeted is an incredibly uncomfortable topic for the Kremlin’s propagandists. As all the action unfolds on Russian territories, it is harder to hide the consequences.
According to the Levada Center (the author realizes how questionable sociological data gathered by a Russian research center is, but due to the lack of alternatives, we are reviewing the information published by the Levada Center), only 18% of Russians consider Ukrainian drone strikes as “one of the most important events in 2024”. It appears that the resonance from the attacks on oil refineries is unevenly spread in the Russian information field. Drones are concerning primarily to the people, living near the borders. Still, as Ukraine’s capacity for drone strikes grows, this topic becomes more important for “regular Russians”. Air raid alarms are getting “closer” to the Russian capital, which, up until now, was rarely visited by Ukrainian drones (the last significant strike happened in May 2023, when two drones hit the dome in Senat Palace in the Kremlin). Another key factor that adds to the increased dissatisfaction with the government’s inability to combat the “shards” that fall over the oil industry facilities is the growth in fuel prices. In 2024 Russia faced a record increase in fuel prices, which, in turn, accelerated soaring inflation. The rate of fuel price growth continues to increase, therefore, the problem of Ukrainian strikes is becoming a problem on a federal scale.
Precision-guided shards
At first, the Kremlin’s spokespeople launched their “calming narratives”. The Russian propagandists’ main tactic was to downplay the significance of the losses caused by the Ukrainian strikes. This is how the headlines about the “successful repelling” of the attacks by “the drones created based on the Western technologies”. In the “dreamland” created by the Russian official media all damage that military objects and oil industry facilities suffered was caused by the shards of the drones that were “repelled”.
Narratives such as this are created as an attempt to hide the uncomfortable truth, which is: that the Russian anti-aircraft defences can’t even protect the enterprises that are crucial for the Russian military-industrial complex effectively.
It is worth pointing out that the habit of reporting “shards falling over military objects” Russian officials developed became a meme in the Russian Internet community, which is used to laugh at the attempts to hide the real order of things. This example highlights the low level of trust Russians have towards their own propagandists and the situation in Russia.
Searching for ways to justify aggression
A significant part of the Russian propagandists’ comments on the topic of Ukrainian drone strikes transform into calls for revenge. Indicatively, the Kremlin’s minions often threaten to hit civilian infrastructure as a “strike back”, not the military objects. This is another way in which the Kremlin spreads the narrative of how attacking civilian objects is only a “response” against “Kyiv’s aggression”.
In reality, the “strategy” behind destroying civilian facilities in Ukraine is partially attributed to targeting energy infrastructure – one of Russia’s most “desirable” goals. Destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure would allow the Kremlin to cause another humanitarian catastrophe to force the Ukrainian government to capitulate. In 2024 alone, Ukrainian energy infrastructure suffered thirteen massive strikes, which caused long-lasting blackouts in civilian and industrial facilities, and put critical infrastructure in danger.
Reflected terrorism
Russian agitation propaganda uses Ukrainian strikes on military objects in Russia as an argument to increase the rates of mobilization for the needs of the so-called “special military operation”. A significant portion of resources is dedicated to establishing an association between drone strikes and terrorism in the mass consciousness of Russians.
It is indicative that Russia tried to pin the responsibility for an ecological disaster in the northeastern Black Sea area that was caused by the oil spillage in the Kerch Strait on December 15th, 2024 as a part of this narrative. The oil spillage happened due to the hulls of two of the Russian oil tanks fracturing during a storm. The Z-community, however, generated a wave of messages to support the narrative of a “terrorist attack” carried out by Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles, which received no concrete proof. The purpose of creating such narratives is, however, not to provide argumentation, but to shift the audience’s focus. In this particular case, the goal was to deny any responsibility for using emergency state equipment (tankers) and to spread the suspicion of Ukraine’s involvement, despite it being entirely unfounded.
Using a strategy like this is a cynical attempt to manipulate objective reality, as Ukraine, as opposed to Russia, only ever strikes military objects and oil infrastructure facilities, which are crucial to the occupants’ logistics. Therefore, accusing Ukraine of terrorism is yet another example of Russia’s “reflecting” its own war crimes.
The purpose of this campaign is to create public condemnation of Ukraine in the global arena and push Western allies to decrease the amount of military aid, as well as limit the number of Ukrainian drone strikes through diplomatic pressure.
Despite the partners’ cautious approach toward sanctioning the Russian oil industry, Ukraine was able to find a way to cause losses for the Kremlin’s key resource in waging the war. For example, due to strikes against Russian oil refineries and sanctions, in 2023 the rate of oil refining in the Russian Federation dropped to its lowest level in the last 12 years.
Therefore, the development and improvement of the drone strike strategy will not only cause further logistics issues for the Russian military but will also influence Moscow’s ability to finance Putin’s war.
At the same time, the case of Ukrainian drone attacks builds the need to mobilize Russian people around the idea of continuing the war against Ukraine for the Russian propagandists. The complete ruination between cause and effect in the Russians’ mass perception leaves no doubt, this is the task that the Kremlin was able to fulfill this task. The good news is, it will not protect the Russian oil industry.
By Viktoriia Odusanvo
