The Kremlin’s actions and demands make meaningful Ukraine-Russia talks impossible, ISW says. The EU approves a 17th round of sanctions against Russia, the UK imposes new measures in lockstep. Russia installs a 90 kilogram combined effect warhead on Shahed drones, Defense Express says.
Kremlin’s actions, demands make meaningful Ukraine-Russia talks impossible, ISW says
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin held a phone call on Monday, May 19 to discuss ceasefire and peace negotiations regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. After a two-hour call with Putin, Trump said Russia and Ukraine will “immediately” start ceasefire talks.
Russia and Ukraine cannot engage in meaningful negotiations so long as Russia protracts the talks, refuses to cease fire before peace settlement negotiations and offer concessions to Ukraine, does not acknowledge the legitimacy of Ukraine’s leadership and keeps expanding its territorial demands. This finding emerges from a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) released on Monday.
ISW breaks down key statements by U.S., Russian and Ukrainian leaders. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.
Trump stated that he and Putin agreed that Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin bilateral negotiations about both a ceasefire and a peace agreement.
Trump stated that the Vatican is “very interested in hosting the negotiations.”
Trump also expressed interest in reviving US–Russian trade after Ukraine and Russia agree to a peace deal and said that Ukraine could also benefit from trade during the reconstruction process.
Trump also said that he called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after his conversation with Putin and informed them that bilateral negotiations will begin immediately.
Putin spoke to journalists following the call on May 19 and stated that he and Trump agreed that Russia would present Ukraine with a “memorandum” detailing conditions and timing for a future peace treaty as the two countries move toward conducting bilateral negotiations.
Putin also stated that Russia’s “main” concern is the elimination of the war’s “root causes,” reiterating a long-standing Kremlin narrative calling for the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a Russian proxy government and Ukraine’s commitment to neutrality.
Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov told journalists on May 19 that Trump and Putin also discussed a possible nine-for-nine US–Russian prisoner exchange.
Zelensky stated that he spoke with Trump before Trump’s call with Putin and spoke with Trump, Macron, Meloni, Merz, Stubb, and von der Leyen following the Trump–Putin call.
Zelensky reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness for a full unconditional ceasefire as Trump has previously proposed.
Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready for direct negotiations with Russia “in any format” and offered Turkey, the Vatican, or Switzerland as possible venues for talks.
Zelensky called for the negotiation process to involve both American and European representatives “at the appropriate level.”
Russia must break its pattern of protracting negotiations and failing to offer any meaningful concessions to Ukraine in order for legitimate and good-faith negotiations to lead to a lasting and sustainable end to its war against Ukraine, ISW said. Russia must explicitly acknowledge the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and constitution and Ukraine’s sovereignty in order to engage in meaningful, good-faith negotiations, it added.
Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly falsely claimed that Zelensky is the illegitimate leader according to the Ukrainian Constitution and that all Ukrainian governments since 2014 are also illegitimate. Ukraine’s Constitution and law explicitly state that Ukraine cannot hold elections while martial law is in place and that Ukrainian authorities cannot lift martial law while “the threat of attack or danger to the state independence of Ukraine and its territorial integrity” remains.
Russia and Ukraine cannot engage in meaningful negotiations so long as Russia refuses to recognize the negotiating authority of Ukraine. Russian officials have forwarded the narrative about the Ukrainian government’s alleged illegitimacy as recently as May 17, and ISW continues to assess that this Russian effort is aimed at setting conditions for Russia to renege on any future Ukrainian–Russian agreements at a time of Russia’s choosing. Any future peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine must include Russia’s explicit recognition of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and constitution.
Russia must agree that ceasefire negotiations must precede peace settlement negotiations. The United States, Ukraine, and Europe have repeatedly called for the establishment of a ceasefire to allow for diplomatic talks to end Russia’s war in Ukraine to proceed. Russia has consistently rejected this sequence of events as part of efforts to hold any ceasefire talks hostage to extract additional concessions from Ukraine and the West. ISW continues to assess that Russia is committed to prolonging peace negotiations so as to continue making battlefield advances. Peace talks ahead of an established ceasefire would allow Russia to continue to make advances in Ukraine, which Russia would likely try to leverage in Ukrainian–Russian talks to extract further concessions. Any future ceasefire will require Russia and Ukraine to engage in separate negotiations to agree on the necessary robust monitoring mechanisms, and conflating ceasefire talks with peace settlement talks will likely delay the implementation of a ceasefire.
EU approves 17th round of sanctions against Russia, UK imposes new measures in lockstep
The EU on Tuesday approved a 17th round of sanctions against Russia.
“The EU has approved its 17th sanctions package against Russia, targeting nearly 200 shadow fleet ships. New measures also address hybrid threats and human rights. More sanctions on Russia are in the works. The longer Russia wages war, the tougher our response,” the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on X.
The EU is already at work on its next package of sanctions, its 18th, to increase pressure on Moscow to end its war against Ukraine, said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week. Ideas under discussion include sanctioning banks in third countries which support Russia’s defense industry and lowering a Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil, according to Bloomberg News.
The UK announced on Tuesday wide-ranging new sanctions on Russia, saying the measures follow Russian drone attacks over the weekend against Ukrainian cities, the biggest drone onslaught of the war.
The UK’s Foreign Office said a total of 100 further sanctions will target Russia’s military, energy, financial sectors and those conducting Putin’s information war against Ukraine.
The new measures will target the supply chains of Russian weapons systems, including Iskander missiles.
New British sanctions have also been placed on 14 more members of the Social Design Agency (SDA), which carries out Kremlin-funded information operations to undermine sovereignty, democracy and the rule of law in Ukraine and across the world.
“In addition, today’s measures will strike at the heart of Putin’s efforts to get around our sanctions and help block his failing attempts to reconnect to the international economy,” the UK’s Foreign Office said in a statement.
Forty-six financial institutions that London said help Russia circumvent sanctions were also hit, including the St. Petersburg Currency Exchange and the Russian Deposit Insurance Agency which insures Russian banks.
Sanctions have also been placed on a further 18 ships in the “shadow fleet” carrying Russian oil, along with the fleet’s enablers.
Other targets include John Michael Ormerod, a British national who procured ships for Russia’s shadow fleet, and two Russian captains of shadow fleet tankers.
“Putin’s latest strikes once again show his true colours as a warmonger. We urge him to agree a full, unconditional ceasefire right away so there can be talks on a just and lasting peace,” UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy said.
The UK said it was also working with partners to tighten the Oil Price Cap that limits the price that Russia can charge for its oil if transported using G7 services like insurance and shipping.
Russia installs a 90 kilogram combined effect warhead on Shahed drones, Defense Express says
Russia began to install two new types of combined effect warheads on long-range Shahed-136 attack drones. One of them is manufactured in Russia and the other one in Iran. Both weigh 90 kg, an increase from a standard 50 kg type, Ukrainian military news site Defense Express said on Tuesday.
The title also released photographs and a detailed description of the warhead, referring to unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
“The new 90 kilogram, Russian-made warhead was designated KOFZBCh which is an acronym for ‘shaped-charge-fragmentation-high-explosive-incendiary warhead.’ The explosive remained unchanged: TGF-35P2 which is TNT mixed with phlegmatized RDX, same as in the standard 50 kilogram OFZBCh-50 warhead that lacked the anti-armor effect. The incendiary action is achieved by using a powder mixture of metal hydrides giving a high combustion temperature of up to 3,500°C,” Defense Express said.
Russia has been using a similar combined effect warhead labelled BST-52 since December 2024, but its weight is around 50 kilograms.
“The Iranian-made warhead also weighs 90 kg and combines shaped-charge, high-explosive, and fragmentation effects but does not include incendiary components. The device belongs to the OLA-series explosives, based on octogen and aluminum with an intermediate charge made of RDX,” the article reads.
According to Defense Express, Russia’s use of Iranian-made drone warheads shows that Moscow and Tehran are intensely cooperating over the Shahed production even while Russia is producing the drones domestically at two facilities: Alabuga in Tatarstan and Kupol in Izhevsk.
