Bloomberg draws three scenarios for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine as Trump talks to Putin. Ukraine shoots down 85 of 140 drones that Russia launches overnight, 52 more go off radar. Two Valdai radar systems were destroyed in a blast near Moscow, Ukraine’s defense intelligence says.
Bloomberg draws three scenarios for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine as Trump talks to Putin
U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, setting the wheels in motion for peace talks. For all Trump’s confidence, the path to a deal remains highly uncertain, but the broad contours of a settlement are coming into focus, according to a Bloomberg article released on Thursday.
Here are the three possible scenarios for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine charted by Bloomberg.
The Base Case. The most likely scenario for Bloomberg Economics would see occupied territory remain in limbo for the foreseeable future and under de facto Russian control. There could be some land swaps involving Russian territory in the Kursk region that was captured by Kyiv.
Ukraine would get security guarantees of some sort. And a lot of the negotiations would focus on just how strong they would be. With the cast-iron security of NATO membership likely off the table for now, any promise made today would ultimately be contingent on the commitment of future political leaders.
If the Europeans can establish a good line of communication with the White House, they will be trying to persuade Trump to maintain US support for Kyiv long enough for the EU nations to rapidly ramp up their own capabilities.
The Best Case. The ideal scenario for Kyiv would see the US and the Europeans commit bilaterally to intervene if Russia reneges on a deal. But the risk of direct conflict with Russia makes even some of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters wary.
Instead, Kyiv’s partners could commit to surging military support to Ukraine and re-imposing, or intensifying, sanctions on Russia. They could also help Ukraine to develop its own defense industry and rebuild its forces to serve as the main deterrent against Russia.
If the EU can deliver all that, it may pave the way for Ukraine to join the bloc, perhaps within the next decade, bolstering its eastern flank and demonstrating the bloc’s renewed ability to influence the countries around it.
The Worst Case. In the nightmare scenario for Kyiv, Trump might lose interest in Ukraine’s future before any settlement has been reached, shutting off military and financial aid and leaving the Europeans to deal with the problem.
Even if Trump’s engagement with Putin does lead to a peace deal that holds initially, it still might only delay the next phase of what Putin has described as a war between NATO and Russia. The Baltic nations, which Putin sees as part of the Russian empire he wants to rebuild, would be the most likely target.
Ukraine shoots down 85 of 140 drones that Russia launches overnight, 52 more go off radar
The Ukrainian Air Force said on Thursday that it had shot down 85 out of 140 drones launched by Russia overnight. Fifty-two drones disappeared off radar after likely being disabled by electronic warfare systems.
The drones were launched from the area of Russia’s Oryol, Kursk, Bryansk, Shatalovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk.
The intercepts took place over the regions of Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kropyvnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Poltava, and Sumy, Ukraine’s Air Force said.
The attack caused damage in the regions of Odesa and Kharkiv, it added.
Two Valdai radar systems destroyed in blast near Moscow, Ukraine’s defense intelligence says
An explosion in the city of Dolgoprudny near Moscow destroyed two Russian Valdai radar systems designed for drone detection and jamming, the Main Intelligence Department of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said on Thursday.
The blast took place at the military base no.52116 overnight on February 7. The installation is responsible for safety of the airspace over Moscow, Ukraine’s defense intelligence said.
Valdai is the latest development of the Russian military-industrial complex and the first in its class to go in service with the Russian military, it added.
