Weekly roundup. Days 1,293-1,297: Russia’s war expands further into Europe

This week, intense fighting continued to rage all along the front lines. Russia continued to pummel Ukrainian cities and towns deep in the rear with missiles and drones. Russia carried out its first major drone attack on Poland.

Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine has slowed down. Ukrainian troops recaptured 58 square kilometers of territory in August, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi said. Russia’s gains in the past months were minimal.

Russia has been building up the intensity of drone strikes against Ukraine. It launched its largest combined drone and missile strike at Ukraine of the war to date on the night of September 6 to 7 with 810 drones and 13 missiles. Russia will likely continue to expand drone strike packages against Ukraine as long as it is able to increase its long-range strike drone production, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said. More frequent larger-scale Russian attacks will threaten to devastate Ukraine’s electrical grid and energy infrastructure ahead of and during the coming winter season, it added.  

Ukraine is at risk of air defense shortages as the Pentagon slows weapons shipments, the Financial Times said. Russia is not preparing for peace. It plans to produce thousands of pieces of weapons and equipment this year, Ukraine’s defense intelligence said. The weapons include 57 modernized Sukhoi aircraft, almost 250 T-90M tanks, around 1,100 new BTR armored personnel carriers and 365 artillery systems.

Multiple Russian drones violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine early on Wednesday. At least four of the 19 drones were shot down by Polish and other NATO aircraft in the country’s airspace. Poland asked NATO to open consultations under Article 4 of its treaty. Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania issued a joint statement Thursday on Russia’s drone incursion into Poland.

NATO working on defensive moves after Poland drone incident, Bloomberg News says.

NATO is preparing defensive military measures in response to the drone incursion in Poland to strengthen deterrence across the alliance’s eastern flank, Bloomberg News said on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.

There will also be a political response, according to the person, who requested anonymity to discuss private matters. An initial one was delivered on Wednesday, with Secretary General Mark Rutte and other allied leaders condemning Russia’s “reckless behavior.”

The military response will be coordinated by Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich, who is responsible for planning and executing all the alliance’s military operations, according to the person.

His command is now assessing the situation and what supplies, if any, would be needed, the person said. NATO is a defensive alliance and any response would focus on strengthening its deterrence posture.

“Looking forward, there’s absolutely more to be done,” Grynkewich said in Vilnius on Thursday. “There are enhancements to weaponry that allow us to get to a lower cost per engagement, that nations have been experimenting with, and will certainly continue to push that, with all the nations in the alliance, all 32, to build ground- and air-based capability that gets us on the correct side of the cost curve.”