One of the biggest problems of almost 70 years of peace in Europe is that very few politicians really know how to react in a time of war, or in this case of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, pseudo-war right on their doorstep.
For 70 years Europe has settled into a style if thinking and mode if behavior that concentrates on minutiae and detail. There has not been a threat that has shaken the tree. There has not been a wolf at the door, and thus the sheep have been able to nibble peacefully, totally oblivious of any rising threat.
The EU commission is full to bursting with nice people who very politely and with all political correctness negotiate with each other as respected equals.
Russia is not a respected equal.
Russia has torn up the international rule book, amassed a potential invasion force of somewhere between 30,000 and 80,000 heavily armed soldiers, backed by more armour and artillery than two or three European nations put together, plus a couple of hundred very capable bombers, less than a few hours striking distance of the EU’s Eastern border.
Europe’s initial response was to wag a finger and tell Russia very politely just how naughty it is being.
The current Russian regime is perfectly happy to ignore any international agreements that are inconvenient to its objectives whilst at the same time hiding behind those that hamstring the international community’s ability to respond.
Most recently, Russia has invaded a sovereign State using stealth, lies and intimidation, instigated a coup d’etat at gunpoint, installed a puppet government, held a totally illegal referendum whose results are mathematically impossible and then annexed a whole territory and peninsula on the pretext of historical precedent.
The Russian President, Foreign Minister and UN representative have been quite content to act indifferent to this truth -almost to the point of incredulity.
The Russian media, supported by its Embassies, pump out a level of propaganda that should see the country prosecuted in European courts. Yet European politicians continue to live under the illusion that there can somehow be a negotiated settlement based on mutual respect.
There can only be mutual respect when both sides follow the same rules in the same way.
This is clearly not the case with a Russia that has an agenda that is diametrically opposed to the European ideal of peace and harmony.
The Wiener 4 point plan suggests that Ukraine should be nonaligned or even neutral, that it should join the European Economic Area with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, that there should be an economic free trade area from Lisbon to Vladivostok whereby Ukraine can sign economic agreements with both the EU and Russia and that the international community should help Ukraine overcome its internal divisions.
President Putin acts as if he wants to annex all of Ukraine and many other states of the region so that he can rebuild the stature of the former Soviet Union. If he were interested in a free trade area, it would have been on the negotiating table years ago. And, despite Russia’s constant claims to the contrary, Ukraine does not have any internal divisions. These were created by Putin as an excuse to invade the country.
As any good Shepherd will tell you, you do not negotiate with a rabid wolf, you shoot it cleanly between the eyes. If you don’t, you will be negotiating until the next new moon as your sheep disappear, one at a time.
Martin Nunn & Martin Foley, Foley & Nunn,
Kyiv, April 4, 2014
