Day 607: almost half of Ukrainians believe war will last a long time, survey finds

Russian forces attempt to cut the only road leading to Avdiyivka and funnel additional forces to the Avdiyivka front. Almost half of Ukrainians believe that the war will last a long time, a survey finds.

Russian forces attempt to cut the only road leading to Avdiyivka and funnel additional forces to the Avdiyivka front. Almost half of Ukrainians believe that the war will last a long time, a survey finds.

Russian forces attempt to cut the only road leading to Avdiyivka

Constant Russian attacks on the road leading to Avdiyivka, in Donetsk region, complicate evacuation efforts and deliveries of humanitarian supplies to the city, head of the Avdiyivka city military administration, Vitaliy Barabash told RFE/RL in a live interview on October 23. “Logistics are very difficult. Twenty-two kilometers to the city are constantly under fire, both during the day and at night. It greatly complicates both evacuation and bringing in humanitarian aid. Any logistics is all through one road. Of course, the enemy is trying to cut it,” Barabash said. 

“The enemy tries to constantly keep [the road] under fire. Whenever they can and the weather permits, they launch Orlan drones to watch the road. They take any movement along the road as a signal to open fire,” he added.

There was no evacuation in the past three days, because people did not want to leave. As of the morning of October 23, there are still 1,601 civilians in Avdiyivka, Barabash said.

“Russian forces are funneling additional forces to the Avdiivka front despite ongoing challenges with frontal mechanized assaults and the failure of a renewed push on October 19-20,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its daily update.

Almost half of Ukrainians believe war will last a long time, survey finds

Forty-nine per cent of Ukrainians believe that Russia has enough resources to continue its war in Ukraine for many more years, a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology finds. The share is up 27 percentage points since February 2023. 

The share of those who believe that Russia is depleting its resources and the war may end on Ukraine’s terms soon has decreased from 67 per cent in February 2023 to 43 per cent in October 2023.

The survey turned up regional differences in opinion. Only a majority of Ukrainians (57 per cent) living in the western part of the country say that Russia is running out of resources to wage the war. Yet, more than one-in-three (37 per cent) Ukrainians living in the West say that Russia’s stockpiles are still brimming.

The share of those who would accept territorial concessions to Russia to end the war among those who believe that Russia still has enough weapons (21 per cent) far exceeds the share among those who think that Russia’s stockpiles are shrinking (seven per cent). 

At the same time, 73 per cent of Ukrainians who believe that the war will last a long time say they would not accept territorial concessions to Russia.

Region-wise, 78 per cent of Ukrainians living in western and central Ukraine, and 66 per cent in the South and East of the country said so.

Ukraine watches closely as Israel-Palestine conflict intensifies. Ukraine in Flames #522

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian, is a highly intricate, long-standing conflict that involves a multitude of intricacies and historical contexts, which may not be readily apparent to outsiders without extensive research and a deep understanding of the region’s history. While we won’t delve into the specific complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in this episode, we will explore the commonalities and connections between these two ongoing parallel wars. Watch Ukraine in flames #522 to find out about the escalating tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict and examine their potential implications for Ukraine.

Guests:

  • Zeev Hanin, Political Scientist, Professor at Bar-Ilan University
  • Yevhen Dykyi, Military and Political Expert