Kyiv, March 14, 2014. Today Crimea stands at a crossroads, deciding its future for the coming decades. The truth may very well turn out to be that the Crimean referendum is only a formal reason to justify a larger military interference by Russia and an annexation of Ukraine’s Southern territories. Overly extolled by the Crimean self-proclaimed Parliament and overwhelming pro-Russian propaganda, the referendum is supposed to change something or everything.
Now that everybody understands that Russian-speaking residents of Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine have not been in any danger and that there is not a single recorded case of ethnic or linguistic discrimination of minorities in the area, the change may well bring about something else, something different or even the opposite. Taking into consideration the insatiable colonial and expansionist tendencies of Vladimir Putin and his past actions in Transnistria, Abkhazia and North Ossetia, the same scenario may await Ukrainian Crimea.
For the past 60 years, since Njkita Khruschev annexed the peninsula to Ukraine in 1954, Crimea and continental Ukraine have developed strong synergies. In 1954, Crimea was recovering from the devastation of World War II, and was badly in need of help to survive in the Soviet economy. Since 1954, the Crimean peninsula created strong bonds with continental Ukraine not only on the basis of ethnicity and language, but also through the supply of water, energy, gas and everyday products. The potential severing of these essential connections after the upcoming referendum will very likely prove to be detrimental to the economic well-being of the Crimean peninsula and its citizens.
“For some unknown reason, everyone is convinced that Crimea and a strategic city in it – Sevastopol – are self-sufficient and can survive without continental Ukraine. They are not. Sevastopol’s self-sufficiency is about 20%, while continental Ukraine pays the rest of its budget. Crimea is able to meet approximately a third of its own needs while the rest is covered by the Ukrainian government,” noted Leonid Pilunskyi, deputy of the ARC Parliament.
Although the Crimean peninsula is surrounded by the Black and Azov seas, fresh drinkable water is being supplied only from the Kakhovka water reservoir, which is located in continental Ukraine. Crimea’s major cities, including Simferopol, Sevastopol, Kerch, Sudak and Feodosia, rely almost entirely on water from Kakhovka.
Another strong connection with continental Ukraine relates to Crimea’s energy supply. It is estimated that nearly 80% of all energy consumed in Crimea is produced by power plants located north of the peninsula, in Kherson and Zaporizhya. Crimea possesses great potential in developing solar energy supplies; however it will not be sufficient enough to maintain the welfare of 2,5 million citizens, at least in the short run.
Annually, Crimea earns nearly USD 2 billion, while Ukraine’s government supplies the peninsula with additional funding of more than USD 2 billion. Revenue comes from millions of tourists who visit Crimea each year; it is not known how the military confrontation will affect tourism in 2014. Experts estimate that the tourism sector of Crimea is worth approximately USD 1.5 billion annually.
Ukraine’s government and millions of Ukrainians across the country remain loyal to Crimea and under no circumstances plan to break friendly ties with the region. “Ukraine does not have any intention of cutting the water, gas, electricity or communications supplies which are transferred to Crimea from continental Ukraine. It is obvious that Ukraine with Crimea as its legitimate part is a united, indivisible state,” stated Vice Prime Minister for Regional Policy Volodymyr Groysman.
