Day 338: Putin plans new offensive in Ukraine, how Russia’s missile strikes change

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Putin prepares for years of war, plans for new Russian offensive in February-March, Bloomberg article says

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin plans for a long standoff in Ukraine. His calculations are that a renewed Russian offensive that may start as soon as February or March could make his forces regain the initiative.

That’s according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation in Russia and the U.S., Bloomberg says. The full text is available here.

Nearly a year into an invasion that was supposed to take weeks, Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine, at the same time steeling his country for a conflict with the US and its allies that he expects to last for years, the article reads.

The renewed offensive may start as soon as February or March, the people close to the Kremlin said. Their comments confirm warnings from Ukraine and its allies that a new Russian offensive is coming and suggest it may begin before Kyiv gets newly promised supplies of US and European battle tanks, the piece suggests.

Putin’s determination presages another deadly escalation in his war as Kyiv prepares a new push of its own to eject his forces, dismissing any cease-fire that leaves Russia occupying its land. The Russian leader believes he has no alternative but to prevail in a conflict he sees as an existential one with the US and its allies, the people said. A new round of mobilization is possible as soon as this spring, they said, as the economy and society are increasingly subordinated to the needs of the war, the Bloomberg article says.

Growing efficiency of Ukraine’s air defenses

The Ukrainian Institute for the Future categorized the public data provided by the Ukrainian Air Force to analyze the growing efficiency of Ukraine’s air defenses against Russian missile strikes. Since October 10, 2022, Russia has launched 11 rounds of massive missile strikes across the country.

  1. On October 10 and October 11, Russia fired 112 rockets, of which the Ukrainian troops shot down 65 (or 58 per cent). 
  2. On October 17, (six days after the previous strike) Russia unleashed nine missiles on Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted three (33 per cent) of them.
  3. October 22 (five days after the previous strike): Ukraine shot down 18 (50 per cent) of 36 Russian missiles.
  4. On October 31 (nine days after the previous attack), Russia launched 56 missiles, and Ukraine shot down 45 (80 per cent) of them.
  5. Between November 15 and November 17 (15 days after the previous strike), Russia pounded Ukraine with 108 missiles. The Ukrainian troops intercepted 79 (73 per cent) rockets.
  6. On November 23 (six days after the previous attack): Ukraine shot down 51 (77.5 per cent) of 67 Russian missiles. Missiles that hit targets caused a blackout in much of the country.
  7. On December 5 (12 days after the previous round of strikes), Russia launched 70 missiles, of which Ukraine shot down 60 (86 per cent).
  8. On December 16 (11 days after the previous strike), Ukraine’s air defenses destroyed 60 (79 per cent) of 76 Russian missiles. 
  9. Between December 29 and December 31 (13 days after the previous attack), Russia unleashed 81 missiles on Ukraine, including ballistic missiles. The Ukrainian troops shot down 74 (79 per cent) of them. 
  10. On January 14 (15 days after the previous round of attacks), Ukraine intercepted 25 (67 per cent) of 38 Russian missiles. 
  11. On January 26 (12 days after the previous strike), Russia launched 55 missiles against Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defenses shot down 47 missiles, and three rockets failed to reach their targets and fell outside of the range of air defenses (90 per cent of the missiles were destroyed).

In the latest waves of missile strikes on Ukraine, Russia fired an average of 64 rockets, a decline from earlier attacks. Its stocks are possibly depleted. Russia has also reduced the frequency of attacks from eight days on average to 12-15 days. That comes as another confirmation that it’s short of stocks and needs more time to replenish the materiel to stage the attacks.

Ukraine’s air defenses shot down an average of 63 per cent of Russian missiles. Over the past two months, the average has been increasing, with efficiency reaching 78 per cent. The Ukrainian military has no system capable of intercepting and downing some types of missiles, like S-400 that Russia is using.

Russia could launch another round of missile strikes on Ukraine between February 7 and February 10 —12-15 days after the previous attack, and could fire up to 60 missiles, the analysts say. As the efficiency of Ukraine’s air defenses grows, the risks facing the energy system are in decline. Russia could use the hypersonic Kinzhal missiles in the attacks. Ukraine has no capacity to intercept this type of missiles. 

In massive missile attack Thursday, Russia’s Kinzhal-type missiles hit targets in two regions, Ukraine’s Air Force Command says. Ukraine has no system capable of intercepting them.

Two of the missiles fired by Russia toward Ukraine on Thursday, January 26 were Kinzhal-type hypersonic missiles. The missiles hit critical infrastructure facilities in Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force Command General Yuriy Ihnat said on television.

“[The Russians] have quite a few of [Kinzhal missiles]. They hold them back to strike against the “most important strategic targets”. Unfortunately, this time, one of the “most important strategic targets” happened to be a facility in Zaporizhzhia, and an energy infrastructure facility in Kyiv. Their “strategic goal” is to leave the residents, an entire district in Kyiv without electricity,” Ihnat said.  

On January 26, Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 47 of 55 Russian missiles, including 46 cruise missiles and a guided air-to-surface missile. The Ukrainian military has no weapons capable of intercepting Kinzhal-type missiles.

Stepan Bandera: symbol of Ukrainian liberation struggle. Ukraine in Flames #323 

Stepan Bandera is the most polarizing figure in Ukrainian history. He is a symbol of Ukrainian liberation struggle, therefore soviet propaganda has created an image of him as a Nazi collaborator and a terrorist to diminish and distort Ukrainian liberation efforts. Watch Ukraine in flames #323 to find out who Stepan Bandera was and why russians are still using clichéd myths about Stepan Bandera as a tool of hybrid warfare in order to showcase Ukrainians as Nazi sympathizers.

Guests:

  • Mykola Posivnych, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Researcher at the Institute of Ukrainian Studies
  • Ivan Patryliak, PhD in History, Researcher of the Ukrainian insurgent movement of the mid-20th century

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