Matt Wickham
The Kremlin is once again resorting to nuclear sabre-rattling. This time, it comes amid debates about whether Ukraine should be given the green light to strike deep into Russian territory with Western-provided missiles. However, this week saw reports that the much-hyped, propaganda-fuelled RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile has suffered yet another embarrassing failure.
The latest test, conducted on either September 20 or 21, as reported by OSINT researchers, resulted in nothing more than scorched soil—marking the fourth consecutive unsuccessful attempt since April 2022.
Satellite images of the 62-meter crater at the site of the possible explosion of the Russian Sarmat missile
Sarmat the Fearsome—Or Is It?
If you’ve ever seen a Russian military parade, you’ve likely laid eyes on the Sarmat missile—a weapon that, no doubt, causes jaws to drop due to its sheer, what seems apocalyptic, size. Even its second name, Satan II, carries a feeling of terror.
The Sarmat missile has been under development since 2009. Its creation was first publically announced in a speech by Putin in March 2018. In April 2022, the dictator recalled the success of the first launch and claimed that Sarmat would “make those, who in the heat of aggressive rhetoric try to threaten our country, think twice.” Repeated threats were issued again by Putin in his address to Russia’s Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024.
According to Russian propaganda, the Sarmat has a range of 18,000km and is designed to attack the United States via a ballistic trajectory through the South Pole using the “orbital attack” system, bypassing America’s THAAD missile defence system.
This claim, however, rings a tad hollow. The Kinzhal missile, another one of Putin’s favourite brainchild, has since been proven highly vulnerable to Western air defences. The Patriot system, provided to Ukraine for its defence against Russian aggression, has seen an impressive interception hit rate since its employment.
Moreover, problems with the Sarmat missile have caused the Russian leadership quite the headache over the years. Repeated delays pushed the Sarmat’s adoption back, and while it finally entered service in September 2023, its potential for operational success remained questionable at best. But this failure fuels doubts only further.
With the Kinzhal’s invincibility disproved and the Sarmats struggling to get off the ground, Putin’s words of warning feel like more empty rhetoric.
Propaganda Falls Silent Post-test Failure
Russia’s supposed nuclear prowess has long been central to its propaganda machine, relentlessly promoted by Putin’s loyalists. The last few weeks have been no exception. If anything, we have seen an increase in nuclear war rhetoric. Yet, following this latest missile test failure, an uncharacteristic silence has engulfed Russian media.
This silence is especially noticeable from Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and the most infamous proponent of the ‘nuclear strikes on the West’ track, within the Russian Federation.
What’s more, just days before this latest failure, the head of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, warned that should Ukraine be granted permission to strike into Russian territory, Moscow would deliver a “harsh response.” He boasted that the Sarmat missile could “reach Strasbourg in just 3 minutes and 20 seconds.”
Similarly, this warning was built upon by Russian state TV presenter Olesya Loseva, “reminding” her Telegram followers of the times it would supposedly take for the Sarmat missile to hit Western capitals. To reach London, 202 seconds. However, the propaganda provided timings are just that, propaganda. Information differs from that of Western estimates.
Despite state propaganda’s silence post test failure, the ever-growing confident military Z bloggers on Telegram (Russian military bloggers), often seen criticising the Ministry of Defence’s handling of the war, opted for a more vocal option, calling it a failure.
Z-bloggers reminded that just a day before the Kremlin confirmed the test site’s readiness for “all types of threats,” claiming it is practically ready for any escalation.
Nuclear Threat Credibility Falls
As Russia faces yet another missile test failure, it only reinforces experts’ long-held beliefs about its declining technology and an ever-deteriorating state of its nuclear arsenal.
Yet, while missile test failures are not uncommon—just this past February, the UK’s Trident missile launch failed for the second time, the first in 2016—the key difference is that Russia uses its alleged nuclear power as blackmail, using it to caution against Western support for Ukraine.
Thus, this failed missile test should be seen by us in the West as an extremely positive development in this war. Ukraine must use this failure to help persuade the West to grant that much-needed “green light,” as Kremlin blackmail is becoming less convincing by the day.