Geopolitical Dialogues is a special project of Ukraine Crisis Media Center, in which Valeriy Chaly, UCMC’s Chairman of the Board, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, invites guests to participate in a discussion on the most pressing topics. This time UCMC was visited by Pavlo Klimkin, Ukrainian Foreign Minister in 2014-2019.
The guest expressed his gratitude for the invitation and called the press center of Ukraine Crisis Media Center a legendary place: “It was created during the Revolution of Dignity and is still playing its role in the changing reality around us. So it’s nice to be here once again.”
The key topics of the discussion were the negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the agreement on rare earth metals, the level of cooperation with the United States of America, the security situation on the European continent, and the overall outline of the new international political reality.
“We host these Geopolitical Dialogues in the context of a very difficult historical period for both Ukrainian foreign policy and Ukraine as a whole. I will start with a question that has been asked in recent days, but, in my opinion, we have not received an answer. Why Saudi Arabia?” asked Valeriy Chaly.
The former Foreign Minister attributed it to the growing role of Middle Eastern countries in global mediation processes.
“Qatar is better known as a mediator, as it is the country where a considerable part of such negotiations actually take place. Oman and Abu Dhabi are less prominent. Now Saudi Arabia has a chance to show that they are number one in this component,” Pavlo Klimkin underscored.
The UCMC Chairman of the Board requested his opinion on the format of the Ukrainian delegation at those negotiations.
“We have all seen the draft framework agreement on minerals in the media. Should it be signed by Ukraine as an international treaty or is the Cabinet of Ministers enough?” he asked.
The legal part is clear to Pavlo Klimkin. He believes that the Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia has the authority to make decisions and, accordingly, to represent our position on key issues. As for the agreement, he believes that it can be passed through the government in its current form, but questions may arise later.
“Something tells me that at some point the question of the legal status of this agreement will arise, since any resources are the property of the people of Ukraine, which is enshrined in the Constitution. Are all the decisions that will be necessary to implement the agreement within the competence of the Cabinet of Ministers? No one can say for sure,” the guest noted.
Both experts agreed that rare earth metals are something that is only on the surface of the agreement. Valeriy Chaly suggests that the US interest is more focused on Ukraine’s strategic assets and Pavlo Klimkin points to a difference in understanding the concept, as the Americans call them critical minerals.
Nevertheless, the outcome of the negotiations in Saudi Arabia and the drafting of the agreement should be seen as an indicator of the temperature in Ukrainian-American relations. Will it rise or fall in the near future?
“’In the next 5 years, the USA, not only with its military, but also with its political and sanction assistance, is a critical element for Ukraine, for preserving it as a country, protecting its national interests, or should we, as many suggest, be realistic, conclude that the United States is lost to us and look for support elsewhere?” asked Valeriy Chaly.
Pavlo Klimkin is convinced that no one can replace the United States in the long term.
“Today I do not see enough focus, determination, real drive and emotions among Europeans, both politicians, military, and societies themselves, to raise the stakes and change the reality they exist in. What is happening today and what is being developed in the United States and what they can do is absolutely unique. We can’t give it up and it is not just about political support,” he emphasized.
Doesn’t the situation seem to be at a dead end in this regard? Valeriy Chaly cannot hide his concern about it. How can Ukraine get the whole world, at least key countries, to understand that we are under aggression, and that two unequal countries are at war, that there is a violation of the UN Charter?
“I understand that there are realities, but if we lose the narrative that is now being imposed on us about stopping and not punishing the aggressor, it’ll be bad. Should we put all our capabilities, resources, including diplomatic ones, and try to return the narrative of the law of international justice or does no law work and only the law of force in this context?” he asked.
Pavlo Klimkin believes that there is no consistent legal system of rules based on international law and international humanitarian law in today’s world, and this destruction began earlier.
“Did the international legal reality exist in 2014, when there was an attack on Crimea, and then on Donbas? I don’t think that even then it existed as an effective way to respond to aggression and an ability to pull someone by the tail,” he explained.
What can we expect from today’s system, when a permanent member of the Security Council is carrying out aggression against Ukraine and we cannot even call it an international legal war from a purely formal point of view, since this requires a Security Council decision?
What is the solution then? In reforming the system, Pavlo Klimkin is convinced, and he recommends taking a closer look at Elon Musk’s proposal for the US to withdraw not only from NATO, but also from the UN.
“This will allow us to rewrite the UN Charter and really push the reform. Then both the political and business models won’t work. We cannot live with what we have today. Of course, we cannot live without something. So let’s fundamentally rewrite the foundations we have for the twenty-first century. In fact, the rewriting process may somehow allow for the partial functioning of today’s UN system. There must be some transition period. It will be very difficult, but only such a crisis, when one of the key players says that it does not fulfill this reality and is ready to withdraw, will lead to a fundamental reform of today’s institutions. If we do not rewrite this charter and do not understand how we will fulfill it, we’ll live in this reality again. And I am in favor of rewriting the reality,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister in 2014-2019.
