Day 992: situation around Kurakhove can grow into a catastrophe, analysts warn

The situation around Kurakhove can grow into a catastrophe, analysts warn. A Russian missile strike on a residential building in Kryvyi Rih kills a woman, her three children could be trapped under rubble. Russia is ready to launch major missile strikes at Ukraine, Ukraine’s counter-disinformation official says.

Situation around Kurakhove can grow into a catastrophe, analysts warn

Russian forces intensify offensive efforts on three sides of Kurakove, in Donetsk region, in attempt to encircle the city, DeepState, a Ukrainian OSINT project said on Monday. 

“The enemy continues to implement its large-scale plan to envelop the city while attacking on the flanks. As we said earlier, the Russians are mounting pressure from new directions, aiming to get to the supply routes of Ukraine’s defense forces. It has only been gaining momentum since then. Moscow’s forces are storming the Ukrainian positions from the north, south, and east,” DeepState said.

Russian forces pile pressure on Ukrainian troops in the north and south in order to close in on the city from the flanks. They also aim to put the H-15 Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway within range to target moving vehicles, the analysts said. 

In the south, Russian forces are advancing along the Yasna Polyana – Maksymivka – Trudove line where they are steadily pressing forward and taking losses. “The contact line runs around 10 kilometers from the highway, while the fortifications in the area leave much to be desired,” the message reads. In the north, the Russians are prioritizing their offensive efforts on Sontsivka, they made successful attempts to enter the village, but Ukrainian troops manage to take out enemy infantry units.    

The Russians are penetrating the eastern outskirts of Kurakhove where they try to accumulate forces and set up positions.

An unfavorable situation is unfolding inside a “pocket” around Antonivka – Katerynivka – Yelyzavetivka, DeepState said.

The analysts cast doubt on adequate deployment of the reinforcement of forces. “If such actions persist, the loss of control of Kurakhove is a matter of time. If the problem on the flanks is not addressed, it will turn into another catastrophe very soon,” the message reads. 

Regional authorities on Monday confirmed reports that surfaced on social media earlier that day that Russia had destroyed the dam of the Kurakhove water reservoir. 

“The water is rising in the villages that sit near the Ternivska dam. We cannot confirm what has been damaged and how critical it is. We are not able to inspect the dam due to incessant attacks,” head of the Kurakhove city military administration, Roman Padun told Suspilne.   

A number of villages in the Bahatyr direction were flooded after the dam breach, unit commander at the Aidar 24th Separate Assault Brigade, Stanyslav “Osman” Bunyatov wrote on Telegram.

“The roads remain available, but with some nuances. The movement of armored vehicles along the dirt roads around the villages is limited,” he said.

Russian missile strike on residential building in Kryvyi Rih kills a woman, her three children could be trapped under rubble 

A Russian missile attack on Monday hit a residential building in Kryvyi Rih in the region of Dnipro, killing at least one person and injuring at least 14 others. A woman’s body was pulled from under the rubble. Her three children — ages two months, two and 10 — could still be trapped, head of the regional military administration, Serhiy Lysak said.

“Russia only wants to continue the war, and each of its strikes negates any claims of diplomacy from Russia,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said on X, following the strike.

“Ukraine needs weapons to defend itself against Russian terror and stronger global support to make diplomacy real and effective. Without principled decisions and strong support for Ukraine, Russia will have no motive to pursue peace and will only continue choosing new targets,” he added.

Russia ready to launch major missile strikes at Ukraine, Ukraine’s counter-disinformation official says

Russian forces maintain readiness to launch major missile strikes at Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, an agency of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine said on Telegram Monday, commenting on morning flights of Russian bombers that imitated the launch of missiles.

“The Russians have everything ready for major [missile] strikes. [Russia] has enough missiles. It has been massing them at the airfields that host strategic aircraft,” Kovalenko said.

“Polishing the tactics of flights that imitate the launch of missiles is part of the routines to maintain the aircraft on alert for immediate dispatch. The enemy uses it to exercise psychological pressure,” he added.

An air raid alert was declared in most of Ukraine on Monday morning after the air force reported that a number of Tu-95MS bombers were taking off from Russian territory. No missiles reached Ukraine. Apparently, the Russian bombers performed flights imitating the launch of missiles.

In anticipation of what the military expected to be a large-scale attack, Ukraine introduced preventative power outages.